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Old 09-27-2018, 05:09 PM
savage1 savage1 is offline
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Will Brett Kavanaugh Be Confimed?

There is actually a line on this:

POLITICAL EVENTS - Sep 29
Will B. Kavanaugh Get Confirmed by Congress on or Before October 31, 2018?

2:00 AM
B Kavanaugh Confirmed On/Or Before OCT 31, 2018?
Yes Odds
+120

1k USD No Parlay/No buy

No
-155

What do you guys think?
I hope some of you are watching the hearing going on-fascinating stuff!!

My vote is NO he will not confirmed.
This is my opinion but necessarily whether I think he should or not be confirmed.
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  #2  
Old 09-27-2018, 06:00 PM
secondbase secondbase is offline
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Sadly watching this crap

Yes he should get confirmed
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  #3  
Old 09-27-2018, 06:23 PM
Roma Roma is offline
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Rapidly changing market best viewed at predicit who specializes in politics

Yes is currently trading at 70 cents. That's like -300
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Old 09-27-2018, 07:24 PM
savage1 savage1 is offline
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The line I posted originally favoring the no just turned around dramatically in favor of yes:

POLITICAL EVENTS - Sep 29
Will B. Kavanaugh Get Confirmed by Congress on or Before October 31, 2018?

2:00 AM
B Kavanaugh Confirmed On/Or Before OCT 31, 2018?
Yes Odds
-157

1k USD No Parlay/No buy

No
+137
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  #5  
Old 09-27-2018, 07:35 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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He’s -400

That's basically Kershaw or Verlander at Home vs Orioles
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Old 09-27-2018, 07:40 PM
Roma Roma is offline
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I didnt pile on the savage guy, even though reading his posts about the red sox made me cringe

not because hes dumb or even a homer, but hes almost rainman level autistic

tunnel vision and just repeats himself hoping more people will agree with him

he makes a decent argument for his positions but doesnt recognize there are other decent arguments out there that conflict with his, and like most sports discussions there are only good or bad arguments, not really right or wrongs. But well thought out positions are fun to read.

He gets very frustrated though when he thinks you arent even reading his argument LOL. He doesnt help his case there because he doesnt make his arguments easy to read. Aesthetically it often looks jumbled.

Notice how here, he literally is skipping over more up to date and accurate information than he had.

He just ignores it

So thats what a lot of people will do to you. Get used to it
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Old 09-27-2018, 08:03 PM
savage1 savage1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roma View Post
I didnt pile on the savage guy, even though reading his posts about the red sox made me cringe

not because hes dumb or even a homer, but hes almost rainman level autistic

tunnel vision and just repeats himself hoping more people will agree with him

he makes a decent argument for his positions but doesnt recognize there are other decent arguments out there that conflict with his, and like most sports discussions there are only good or bad arguments, not really right or wrongs. But well thought out positions are fun to read.

He gets very frustrated though when he thinks you arent even reading his argument LOL. He doesnt help his case there because he doesnt make his arguments easy to read. Aesthetically it often looks jumbled.

Notice how here, he literally is skipping over more up to date and accurate information than he had.

He just ignores it

So thats what a lot of people will do to you. Get used to it
Um-excuse me but that line I posted is current at Bookmaker-it just up ticked a little as you can see.
Call Bookmaker yourself if you think I am making it up:
EVENTS

POLITICAL EVENTS - Sep 29
Will B. Kavanaugh Get Confirmed by Congress on or Before October 31, 2018?

2:00 AM
B Kavanaugh Confirmed On/Or Before OCT 31, 2018?
Yes Odds
-159

1k USD No Parlay/No buy

No
+138

As far as your other belittling comments go, it says a lot about you-there is a 100% LOY om wnat is says, and it isn't pretty!
sure people can and should believe as they want.
In actuality I have never used adjectives to denigrate folks for their position as in case of Mike Trout as they have with mine.
I apologize for having the ability and willingness to think in multidimensional terms.
ps You are a bit hypocritical here by implying that your line on the Kavanaugh matter is right when I just posted the current line at Bookmaker.
Perhaps when you finally accept that the Bookmaker line is accurate, you ought to call them and tell them to change it because your service and line is better than theirs. lol
Also kindly tell me why specifically my Red Sox posts and opinions make you cringe-they are based on my following the Sox since 1952-they are opinions for sure but as good and valid as anyone else's!

Last edited by savage1; 09-27-2018 at 08:07 PM.
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  #8  
Old 09-27-2018, 08:21 PM
Roma Roma is offline
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Im not reading that

but if you care to be self aware, then thats why some people find you annoying

also you may be seeing that line but books do not line every event they offer themselves

some are just copying other books or experts.

Books arent specifically geared towards politics.

You disregarded what others said in your thread, as if you want to talk to yourself

and what others said was more accurate. Predicit is a place to gamble on politics alone

at the time you posted, at predictit, you had to lay 70 cents to win 30

also some sportsbooks had adjusted at the time you posted too.

So essentially its a bad line, which I dont doubt was real, just not accurate

it doesnt reflect what real odds are out there, you were told this from the get go

In fact if you were resourceful, you would have used the info available at predicit, to jump on yes at your book
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Last edited by Roma; 09-27-2018 at 08:22 PM.
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  #9  
Old 09-27-2018, 08:39 PM
savage1 savage1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roma View Post
Im not reading that

but if you care to be self aware, then thats why some people find you annoying

also you may be seeing that line but books do not line every event they offer themselves

some are just copying other books or experts.

Books arent specifically geared towards politics.

You disregarded what others said in your thread, as if you want to talk to yourself

and what others said was more accurate. Predicit is a place to gamble on politics alone

at the time you posted, at predictit, you had to lay 70 cents to win 30

also some sportsbooks had adjusted at the time you posted too.

So essentially its a bad line, which I dont doubt was real, just not accurate

it doesnt reflect what real odds are out there, you were told this from the get go

In fact if you were resourceful, you would have used the info available at predicit, to jump on yes at your book

The whole point here is that initially you made the implication that my line

was not right and/or that that I was implying that my line was better than

yours, which is simply not true.

Last I heard Bookmaker is highly respected in setting sports lines and well

respected.

No this is not a sporting event, although the fact that a line has been put

out to wager upon indicates in a sense that some folks view it as such and

would like to wager upon it.

Again my intent was simply to provided as provided by my offshore-nothing

more or less.

If Bookmaker adjusts their line to reflect the more accepted line and/or to

balance the action at their bettors, then well and fine-that doesn't detract

from what I stated initially about what the line currently is there.

To change the subject, of course some people find me irritating-conversely I

find them irritating also especially in the sense that some resort to name

calling and insults to what I say but do not offer counter arguments to what

I have offered.

I will try to use spacing in the future when posting as that is a valid criticism.
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  #10  
Old 09-27-2018, 08:43 PM
Roma Roma is offline
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yeah misunderstanding so no big deal

Predicit is just an exchange, the house just takes a cut,

but the market moves based on the investors moving it

you are selling YES and NO shares, and based on supply demand alone the prices move
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  #11  
Old 09-27-2018, 10:02 PM
savage1 savage1 is offline
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I think at this point the best thing for this thread would be for folks not to worry about

the betting line but rather whether he should be confirmed or not.

Actually they are starting to debate this right now on CNN.

I myself have mixed feelings as the alleged incident happened 36 years ago when he

was a teenager and because the information presented no matter what anyone says is

hearsay on both sides.

If he allegedly did this when he was a but older, then I would say that he definitely

should not be confirmed if there were questions like this.

I am not trying to minimize the charges here but in all honesty his qualifications,

experience and his views are what concern me to view concerning the importance of

the position and that is a position for life.

On the surface from what I have read, his views overall seem to be a too conservative

for me but no one knows for sure how he would think and act in this position.

And lets be real here-even though they weren't charged with rape, both Bill Clinton and

Donald Trump have done things in their personal lives that I totally frown upon.

Without getting too religious, lets say that imo what they did will be judge by a Higher

Power, and as is the case with Kavanaugh they should be judge by what they did in

office(obviously nothing can be said about Kavanaugh assuming he gets confirmed

because he hasn't served yet in his capacity).

All that said, I will accept whatever verdict is rendered here and hope for him to serve

the country well if he is confirmed.

This is pretty much the same feelings I had and have for Trump.

I didn't vote for Trump, but unlike some who continued to spew forth their hate once he was elected, I supported

him and hoped that he would do a good job for the country.

Last edited by savage1; 09-27-2018 at 10:05 PM.
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  #12  
Old 09-27-2018, 10:18 PM
Roma Roma is offline
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In general I agree with you.

There's a politics section here where there's discussion on it.

You'll get more opinions there
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  #13  
Old 09-27-2018, 10:32 PM
savage1 savage1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roma View Post
In general I agree with you.

There's a politics section here where there's discussion on it.

You'll get more opinions there
Thanks-I will check it out.
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  #14  
Old 09-28-2018, 10:53 AM
savage1 savage1 is offline
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Crazy question which applies not to just this case but lots of cases.

Perhaps it has even happened before.

Anyways lets take a case like this where the statements from the opposing sides are 100% different.

Lets assume that both sides agree to a polygraph in order to corroborate their testimony.

What should one conclude if each used show that the person submitting to it is telling the truth?

Or how about this and even better-what should one conclude if each polygraph used shows that the person taking

the test is lying?

Perhaps at this point the polygraphs should be "put on the stand and questioned" to find out if they are telling the

truth and/or have been tampered with in the same manner that some folks have accused voting machines being

tampered with to alter the results. lol

Last edited by savage1; 09-28-2018 at 10:54 AM.
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Old 10-02-2018, 08:59 AM
savage1 savage1 is offline
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If I had to vote based on what I know today, I would vote "no" fpr his confirmation for the simple reason that the position of SCOTUS is too important to take any chances with, and that there are candidates at least as qualified as him without a questionable past.
Also and very importantly I didn't care for the manner in which he accorded himself while being questioned with his attacks and accusations-imo that is not the even type of temperament needed for this position.
Also and to be fair, I don't believe anyone should be appointed to life for any position including, SCOTUS and that the person should get no more than a four year term, the same as the POTUS.
For me the fact that SCOTUS is an appointment for life makes the stakes high, and thus there should be no questions about the person's qualifications.
Also imo signing FA in baseball a long term guaranteed contract for zillions of dollars is one thing(and imo is pretty stupid for an team to do).
However at least there, if he doesn't produce, the team can either try to trade him and/or they can move on when his contract expires.
This is not the case with the Supreme Court Justice unless he dies, becomes incapacitated of steps down on his own volition.
If he does get confirmed, in any case my life will go on the same as it does with the election of the President whether I voted for him or not.
ps I realize that this is a change of heart from my original thinking where I was leaning toward thinking that he should be confirmed, but based on what I have seen, heard and read of late, my overall perception has changed a bit.

Last edited by savage1; 10-02-2018 at 09:04 AM.
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