baseball system - mlb 1.71

[dr. dough]

i found this system last year that looked very interesting. i played it last few months of season last year and it did very well. i am by no means taking the credit for this system.

the advantage of the system, besides generating w's, is that it's quite simple, not very time consuming to find the qualifying series and the chases are short, no six games or longer chases.

the criteria for a series to qualify are quite simple but yet powerful as my research proved and they are:

* the chase starts with the start of a new series
* the team you bet on must be a home team
* the team you bet on must have won 2 of the last 3 home or away
* must have an odds of 1.71 or lower opening moneyline (-140 or lower american pricing)
in the first game of the new series
* play the team meeting the above criteria to win 1 unit on their next 3 or 4 games
depending on the length of the series against the same opponent.

i recommend to stay on the conservative side when choosing unit size. i recommend starting the season with at least 60 units.


like i said, i have done research during the off-season (1999-2009) to check what to expect from this system.

the historical data i found and did research on had closing lines recorded, i find it difficult to hang around till minutes before first pitch of borderline games to check if it qualifies.

the workaround i prefer is to use opening lines instead and i think it's equally
consistent. the bookie i use is Pinnaclesports.

the research is made on winning 1 unit.
1999 171-8, +80.85
2000 169-6, +100.33
2001 142-9, +17.41
2002 151-5, +80.61
2003 165-6, +51.7
2004 139-13, -0.18
2005 146-7, +21.2
2006 130-3, +89.1
2007 136-12, -31.03
2008 130-5, +75.73
2009 146-7, +55.77

winning percentage 1625/1706 --> 95.2%

from these figures the following was calculated:

average number of losses per season 7.36
average number of units loss 12.6
average number of wins per season 151
average number of units profit per season 49.2
biggest loss 2005, anaheim -58.5 units
smallest -4.98

the money management strategy to use is the labouchere roulette system. i recommend google that system to learn how it works.
the chase strategy can also be used but it's more risky.

[Victor]

dr. dough

[steel69]

Will be keeping an eye on this...

[home dogs]

Found this system also this year look very interesting.....will be playing something similar to this all year...GL

[home dogs]

I actually believe one filter for the system is that the team you are betting on has to have won 2 of the last 3 games...

[The Nac]

Welcome to the Mall, dr dough! This system looks pretty good!

[mvalentin]

what were the odds on the 3 games when Anaheim lost 58.5 units in 2005?

[dr. dough]

Originally Posted by mvalentin

what were the odds on the 3 games when Anaheim lost 58.5 units in 2005?

it was actually a 4 games series the system lost on.
the series looked like:

2005-07-10 SEA L 4-7 L -185
2005-07-09 SEA L 3-6 L -195
2005-07-08 SEA L 4-10 L -205
2005-07-07 SEA L 2-10 L -250
2005-07-06 MIN W 7-6 W 123
2005-07-05 MIN W 2-1 W -157
2005-07-04 MIN L 5-7 L -157

[dr. dough]

some more random data from the database.
total number of losses per month last 11 years

apr 17
may 18
june 17
july 10
aug 9
sept 10
total 81 losses
avg.7,36 per season

[dr. dough]

just expand on the money management strategy. my opinion is that the unit size for this system should be about 2% of your starting bankroll.

whatever the dollar amount for these 2% equals, shouldn't change throughout the season.

the fact that almost 2/3 (64%) of the losses come in the first half of the season (see post above) will not change my mind.

[jonnyblaze]

I have seen this but when the team your betting on is -140 more, first game at home and coming off a loss in 2 of 3 instead of a win.

[BIGDEAL]

Nobody understands or is willing to learn the labourouche or whatever the hell it's called, so unless you are willing to post how these will be played and the unit wagered on each line and so forth, don't bother.

Sorry but this damn "L" system is a very easy term to use when making up a system. And will work for lots of system plays! That damn thing is a system in itself, so it really gets on my nerves when people use that term so loosely!

[Doctor X]

Originally Posted by dr. dough

it was actually a 4 games series the system lost on.
the series looked like:

2005-07-10 SEA L 4-7 L -185
2005-07-09 SEA L 3-6 L -195
2005-07-08 SEA L 4-10 L -205
2005-07-07 SEA L 2-10 L -250
2005-07-06 MIN W 7-6 W 123
2005-07-05 MIN W 2-1 W -157
2005-07-04 MIN L 5-7 L -157

Wouldnt this series been filtered out due that the first game was over the ml of 171?

[dr. dough]

Originally Posted by BIGDEAL

Nobody understands or is willing to learn the labourouche or whatever the hell it's called, so unless you are willing to post how these will be played and the unit wagered on each line and so forth, don't bother.

Sorry but this damn "L" system is a very easy term to use when making up a system. And will work for lots of system plays! That damn thing is a system in itself, so it really gets on my nerves when people use that term so loosely!

wow nice attitude.......did you lose a lot last night?

google PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING and read "labouchere update" how the strategy works.

[dr. dough]

Originally Posted by Doctor X

Wouldnt this series been filtered out due that the first game was over the ml of 171?

i was maybe a bit unclear..........1.71 is the decimal pricing that translates to -140 american pricing......

the -250 odds on anaheim is obviously lower than -140 there it qualified to start.

the bold text below qualified the series.


2005-07-07 SEA L 2-10 L -250
2005-07-06 MIN W 7-6 W 123
2005-07-05 MIN W 2-1 W -157