ERA System Plays

[bobby2]

ERA System. The way this system works is you compare the ERA of the two starting pitchers. If the ERA is greater than 2.50 you bet on the team with the pitcher that has the lower ERA. I currently use YAHOO SPORTS/MLB/Scores and Schedules to get the info I use. EXAMPLE

04/19/09
CLE: C. Pavano (0-2, 16.71)
NYY: A. Burnett (2-0, 2.70)
Difference of 14.01 so you would PLAY on NYY: A. Burnett

MIL: J. Suppan (0-2, 12.91)
NYM: N. Figueroa (0-0, 0.00)
One pitcher has no ERA established yet so this would be NO PLAY

OAK: D. Braden (1-1, 3.75)
TOR: R. Romero (1-0, 2.57)
Difference 1.18 NO PLAY

If the difference falls exactly on 2.50 I will riule it as a NO PLAY

Right now I am only using 1 Unit per play and I use BETJAM for the Lines

Yesterday 04/18/09 I posted only the DOG plays. These were also all ROAD DOGS The posted plays went 2-3 -32. Two of the losses were in extra innin

I also tracked the favorites but did not post them. They went 3-0 +300 I threw out the Boston play as the line was -270, however Boston did win I did not count it as a play

I will use this thread to track the system (both DOGS and FAVORITES) and see how it does for the next week or so, I expect alot of plays to start with but as the season wears on the ERAs should come down some.

I do not know if anyone has tried this system before but if you have let us know how it did. I just got it from a friend in Washington State.

Questions/Comments Welcome

[bobby2]

FAVORITES

ATL: J. Vázquez (0-1, 4.50)
PIT: Z. Duke (2-0, 0.59) -105

FLA: C. Volstad (2-0, 1.50) -148
WAS: D. Cabrera (0-1, 4.91)

CLE: C. Pavano (0-2, 16.71)
NYY: A. Burnett (2-0, 2.70) -230 (no play for me line too high)

CWS: G. Floyd (1-1, 6.00)
TB: M. Garza (1-0, 1.93) -160

DOGS

ARI: M. Scherzer (0-0, 5.40) +103
SF: R. Johnson (0-2, 11.42)

COL: U. Jiménez (1-1, 2.53) +100
LAD: J. McDonald (0-1, 13.50

KC: K. Davies (1-0, 2.13) +106
TEX: V. Padilla (1-1, 10.00

[bobby2]

04/19/09 Results

Favorites 1-2 -165

Favorites 200+ 1-0 +100

Dogs 0-3 -300

[Earl]

Wow some system you got there. I would have to consider a trial run before I use it though good luck with it this though

[bobby2]

Earl yeah that why I am testing it now and see if maybe it needs some refining

[bobby2]

COL: J. Marquis (2-0, 1.93) +100
ARI: J. Garland (1-1, 8.44)

OAK: D. Eveland (0-0, 6.75)
NYY: A. Pettitte (1-0, 2.51) -176

[canadiens11]

You should try backtesting these from last season. As the ERA numbers your getting now are greatly inflated in many cases as some guys have just 1-3 starts at most.
Also you might want to consider using WHIP as your main measure instead of ERA as it is a more accurate measure of pitcher performance.
GL with the system.

[bobby2]

04/20/09

DOGS 0-1 -100

OVERALL

Favorites 1-2 -165

Favorites 200+ 1-0 +100

Dogs 0-4 -400

[bobby2]

FLA: A. Sanchez (1-0, 1.64) -122
PIT: J. Karstens (0-0, 6.75)

LAD: C. Kershaw (0-0, 1.50) -154
HOU: R. Ortiz (0-0, 6.23)

NYM: O. Perez (1-1, 7.84)
STL: T. Wellemeyer (1-1, 4.50) -108

COL: F. Morales (1-0, 1.50) +111
ARI: Y. Petit (0-1, 7.71)

OAK: D. Eveland (0-0, 6.75)
NYY: A. Pettitte (1-0, 2.51) NO LINE YET

MIN: S. Baker (0-1, 13.50)
BOS: T. Wakefield (1-1, 3.00) -160

DET: A. Galarraga (2-0, 0.68)
LAA: J. Weaver (1-1, 3.09) -108

TB: A. Sonnanstine (0-1, 6.52)
SEA: J. Washburn (2-0, 1.29) +103

[bobby2]

Originally Posted by canadiens11

You should try backtesting these from last season. As the ERA numbers your getting now are greatly inflated in many cases as some guys have just 1-3 starts at most.
Also you might want to consider using WHIP as your main measure instead of ERA as it is a more accurate measure of pitcher performance.
GL with the system.

canadiens11 you are absolutley correct on the ERA inflation right noiw. This system may have to wait until the second or even third month into the season. May even have to identify minimum startsby a pitcher to qualify. I will look at it now and see how it does and then maybe later in the season test it again.

I also looked at the WHIP for the games for 04/21/09. The biggest difference is only 1.20 and that is in the Yankee game. Will have to look at a different
number other than 2.50 or maybe wait and see what happens if I do find a 2.50 difference.

Thanks very much for you input

[bobby2]

OAK: D. Eveland (0-0, 6.75)
NYY: A. Pettitte (1-0, 2.51) -197

[rjb1816]

fading the dog portion of the system may work out in the long run...guys with much better era's getting plus juice should raise a flag

[bobby2]

Favorites 3-2 +24

Dogs 2-0 +213

OVERALL 3 DAYS

Favorites 4-4 -141

Favorites 200+ 1-0 +100

Dogs 2-4 -186

[bobby2]

FLA: R. Nolasco (1-1, 6.60)
PIT: P. Maholm (2-0, 0.87) -108

COL: J. De La Rosa (0-1, 4.50)
ARI: D. Haren (0-3, 1.89) -169

SD: C. Young (2-0, 4.86) -119
SF: B. Zito (0-2, 10.00)

MIL: B. Looper (1-0, 3.27) +118
PHI: J. Blanton (0-1, 9.00)

ATL: J. Jurrjens (2-1, 2.04) -129
WAS: J. Lannan (0-2, 6.46)

CWS: J. Danks (1-0, 0.75) -105
BAL: J. Guthrie (2-0, 4.32)

MIN: S. Baker (0-1, 13.50)
BOS: T. Wakefield (1-1, 3.00) no line yet

MIN: F. Liriano (0-3, 5.09) no line yet
BOS: B. Penny (1-0, 11.00)

DET: J. Verlander (0-2, 7.88)
LAA: J. Saunders (2-1, 2.18) +101

[bobby2]

MIN: S. Baker (0-1, 13.50)
BOS: T. Wakefield (1-1, 3.00) -157 sorry this one started already using the line from BODOG

MIN: F. Liriano (0-3, 5.09) +123
BOS: B. Penny (1-0, 11.00)