Friday's Play !! (They're Baaaack !!)

Keith · #1 07-23-2010, 06:50 AM

first the re-cap. Still remain oh-fer the second half

, losing the over in the Jays/Tigers yesterday by half a run. Overall record stands at 43-37 (+$505). Going to pull the plug soon if it doesn't turn around.

Someone suggested yesterday that I go back to the DMS ("don't make sense") plays to try to turn my luck around. Well then....with further ado.....

I'm looking at the total in the Padres/Pirates. We have two pitchers whose combined ERAs is 9.25, and yet the total is set at only 8. Hmmmm... Maholm and Correia both suck. You'd have to be an idiot to bet the under here. Right ???

Wrong !! This game WILL stay under the total of 8. Here's why:

First of all, Maholm is pitching better recently. In his last 2 starts, he went 16 innings, allowing only 6 hits and 2 walks, for a WHIP of 0.500. For the month of July his BAA is .229. For his career against the Pads he is 0-2 but with a 3.05 ERA. The Pads, who bat only .254 against lefties will have trouble with Maholm, and after him, they'll face the Pirates bullpen with its respectable 3.44 home ERA.

As for Correia--his brother died earlier this year and he did not pitch well when he returned from bereavement leave. But that is changing. For the month of July he is 1-0 with a 4.00 ERA. In his last 2 starts, he went 11 innings and allowed 14 hits and 3 walks, but with 17 strikeouts. For his career against the Pirates he is 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA. The Pirates are batting only .242 against righties this year (2nd worst in the NL). After Correia leaves, he'll turn it over to the Pads pen with its impressive 2.93 road ERA. Last but not least, the Pads are 15-27 to the under on the road this year.

The "don't make sense" plays are back !! (at least for today they are--LOL).

Friday's play is under 8 in the Padres/Pirates.