Going for 5th "Best Bet" straight win & a total

mickey · #1 08-26-2009, 03:31 PM

Was looking at Tampa Bay as my "Best Bet" b/c that was what i felt,but one of those gut feelings came across me all of a sudden. I know the saying is go with your gut feelings,but again,they say go with your 1st instinct. I guess I can't make up my mind mallers,let me explain:

Tampa Bay at Toronto

Kazmir on the mound for the Rays has had struggles, but if you look closer at his 5.10 ERA on the road this year you will see that his last 2 road starts are quality with 13.2 IP 10H 11K's 5BB and 6 ER.As for the Blue Jays,they are 7-19 in their last 26 games vs. LH starter. The Rays will also face a lefty in Rzepcynski who has faced the Rays twice.

But Rzepczynski has 2 starts both at TB 12IP 8H 7BB 8K's and only 2 ER. The Rays hit a little better the second time around and have been able to get on base via the walk. Even though i decided to not play the Rays ML(side),I think the Rays get to him tonight being their third time seeing this pitcher and how they've been hitting as of late vs. LHP, .340avg, 8.30 R/9 in their last 5 games.

The BlueJays bullpen have a 6.23 ERA in their last 10 games compared to the Rays 3.29 ERA in their last 10 games.The Blue Jays have lost eight of their last 10, as they resume a home set against the Rays.

Tampa is 11-3 this year against Toronto, including 6-2 at the Rogers Centre, and Scott Kazmir is 4-1 in his last five starts, despite a 4.94 ERA in that stretch.
Crawford is questionable for the game for the Rays,& the Rays are only -120 on the ML,so i'm feeling sceptical on a side play,so i will play on the total,here's why:
Toronto is 12th in baseball in runs scored, the Rays are 5th. This is a great hitter's park, too, in Toronto. Tampa Bay lefty Scott Kazmir (8-7, 6.17 ERA) has struggled all season, particularly with control, walking 49 in 105 innings. He has an ERA over 7 against Toronto this season. Toronto starter Marc Rzepczynski also has control trouble, walking 23 in 49 innings.

"OVER" the total 9

NY Mets at Florida

FLA is a must win scenario they can't afford to fall any further behind COL in the wildcard race. The Fish send Johnson to the mound and hope there ace is ready to dominate. He's 6-0 with a 2.05 ERA in eight starts against the Mets, including a 3-0 mark and 1.63 ERA in four outings at Land Shark Stadium. On the rubber for the Mets is Pelfrey and he looks to turn around a rough road record. The right-hander has struggled through 10 road starts, going 4-5 with a 5.93 ERA. He has an 8.33 ERA while losing his last three. Pelfrey is 1-5 with a 5.36 ERA in nine starts against the Marlins.The freefalling Mets are on an 8-18 plunge in their last 26 outings. When it comes to lineups the Fish are far superior to NYM and lets hope they keep up the hot bats.
Josh Johnson and Florida are 17-2 against NL East division opponents over the last two seasons, winning by 2.9 runs per game.

Florida-1.5 RL "Best Bet"