HR Derby Props / Analysis / INFO....must read!

[B1AZE]

So we have the new format for the HR Derby which two captains choose 3 each. David Ortiz (AL) chose team-mate Adrian Gonzalez and fellow dominicans Robinson Cano and "most AS votes ever" Jose Bautista. My personal opinion is this is a good thing to have his buddies on the team. I remember back when papi and tejada were going at it and you could tell the dominicans were a fun bunch with good energy just feeding off each other in competition. Bautista and Cano will hit for the first time i believe and AGonz will be making his 2nd appearance. His first one was 2 years ago in STL when he shit the bed and sucked balls. But after browsing the internet i read that team-mate Heath Bell and Gonzalez wasn't offered a charter to STL by the Padres organization and thus rented a mini-van. Apparently Heath Bell told Gonzalez that he didn't want to drive so Gonzalez drove and had ZERO sleep. Heath's excuse was that he did not want to get a speeding ticket. So Gonzalez rightfully was tired and probably wasn't very focused anyways being so excited. Big Papi is the current HR Derby champion and he always does very well in these things.

Prince Fielder (NL) chose team-mate Rickie Weeks and STL Cardinal Matt Holliday and Matt Kemp. This will be Kemp's and Weeks' first time hitting in the derby too. Prince was the winner 2 years ago in STL and this is Matt Holliday's 3rd time competiting.

It seems everybody that has done these things say that its exhausting. They also say its INSANELY nerve racking the first time. You have 50,000+ waiting on you to hit homers. Not to mention the millions on the TV watching. Then consider you're a first time all-star and you might be in awe of playing in the game and being around some of baseball's biggest stars. (not this year because they're all sitting out LOL.) You become a little kid. I think Jose Bautista has a TON of pressure on him. So i won't be risking anything on or against him, but it wouldnt suprise me if he does well or sucks. He's a BEAST so i think it'll come down to how he handles the pressure and that is something i can't answer.

Here is an article the other day Papi, Gonzo on power trip - BostonHerald.com about David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez. He said that he instantly thought of AGONZ. He was mentioning they have intense competitions in batting practice. He said when he hits 3.....AGONZ hits 4. Also i like that these two have a ton of guys coming with them for support. (Beckett, Youk, Lester, Ellsbury etc. ) Also AGONZ used to play for the Padres and Chase Field is one of Adrian’s favorite battering grounds from his days as a Padre—aside from Coors Field, no other visitors park has allowed Adrian Gonzalez him smack more homers than Chase Field (13 to date). Adrian spent years in San Diego, ripping apart spacious Petco Park—Chase Field is smaller to lefties than Petco Park, so if we can convince Adrian that it’s in his best interest to pull the ball all the time that night, he’ll give a great display of power to all baseball fans, and hopefully he can remind the Padres of what they had to let go.

Im assuming Matt Holliday isn't a sexy pick with Kemp, Gonzalez, Bautista and former champs Prince and Big Papi on the card. However, i think he'll do alright. Its his 3rd appearance in which he was light years better the 2nd time then the first. He also is very familar with the ballpark in AZ. He played for the division Rockies for a few years earlier in his career. Im from STL and i knew he puts on shows in batting practice here. Then i read an article in which he was saying he takes it seriously and wouldnt join to "just join". Which to me is BIG. Because im sure some of these guys over the years are just happy to be there and are "having fun"...

Which leads me to Robinson Cano. Who was quoted on saying: " Im just going and having some fun with my father " . He apparently is about to let his father throw to him tonight. That too me doesnt sound like a recipe to win. His fathers legs will be shaking i would believe. However, this is NOT confirmed BUT its very possible. Derby might be a family event for Cano - Yankees Blog - ESPN New York . If this happens then i will be betting against him in matchups for sure.

Speaking of being thrown too. Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks have chosen someone they are very familar with. This guy was the one who threw to Prince when he won in STL. Nashville Sounds coach Sandy Guerrero can serve up home runs | The Asheville Citizen-Times | citizen-times.com . I have to believe this is a really good thing for Prince Fielder. IMO

Matt Kemp is a sexy choice, but he's a rookie here. However, he also has spent a bunch of games in Chase Field since he's on the Dodgers. But how nervous will he be? Who knows. I would say this guy is built like a machine.

Player Avg True Dist.
Matt Kemp 411.4
Prince Fielder 407.8
Matt Holliday 405.0
Rickie Weeks 399.3
Jose Bautista 397.6
LEAGUE AVERAGE 395.0
David Ortiz 389.9
Adrian Gonzalez 387.5
Robinson Cano 379.2

Average speed of home runs off of bat (mph):
Player Avg. Speed Off Bat
Matt Holliday 105.8
Prince Fielder 105.4
Jose Bautista 105.3
Rickie Weeks 104.9
Robinson Cano 103.4
Matt Kemp 103.3
LEAGUE AVERAGE 103.3
David Ortiz 102.9
Adrian Gonzalez 102.2

few props im on at 5 Dimes:

Agonz to win: $50 / $315

Prince to win: $50 / $230

Ortiz to win: $50 / $225

Prince Fielder makes the 2nd round @ -185.

David Ortiz makes the 2nd round @ -170

Sportsbook has alot of matchups to choose from.

I obviously like fading Robinson Cano tonight.

Matt Holliday OVER Cano @ -130

Adrian Gonzalez OVER Cano @ -160

and

David Ortiz OVER Rickie Weeks @ -160

OVER = most home runs total

Cano will swing vs. dad in Derby - NYPOST.com

I know he is saying that its a good thing because he knows him but i dont see it being a great thing. That dude has to be nervous as hell and Cano will have to take it upon himself (in his first appearance) to overcome the nervousness. I think it wouldnt be a huge deal if you're throwing to a guy like Barry Bonds or Josh Hamilton. Those guys can flat out SMASH in batting practice. Robinson Cano isn't exactly a power hitter even though they say his batting shows are pretty good. I could be WAY OFF, but im throwing some of my house money down here.

[Dr. Jack]

Good post and good luck

[BOBBYW]

Thanxx & gl..

[Quiksilver]

Good info

[B1AZE]

Thanks guys!

I added Adrian Gonzalez makes 2nd round @ +110 and Prince Fielder OVER Robinson Cano @ -170. Unit on both....BOL