Leprechaun's MLB Series System

[Leprechaun]

Hello all. I’ve been a member here at this forum as well as the other popular forums for years but have not posted often. Last year I followed Home Dogs and Grandfather a lot in the early part of the MLB season. Both of they and many others have come up with some decent systems and helped me form some ideas for my own. I alluded to this system last year in Home Dogs thread. I was actually going to post this system last year but decided to do some testing first. Well, the system was put to the test in ‘09...I played it from the last week in April until the last week in August. The system went 158-4 over this period for about 120 units profit. (this is a SERIES result...a loss is counted only if we were playing on a team that got swept in the series. If our team wins 1 game in the series it is a win...although the units won on that series varies!) More importantly, of our 158 wins, in 111 of those series, the team we picked won 2 of 3 games. Of the 47 series that we won only one game, approximately 15 of those went to game C (don't have the exact number but will track it this year). Since these results were not posted publicly, you don’t have any reason to believe them. However, this year I began tracking the results for April (the “preseason” for this system) on my blog (I know you can’t post links here but if you google “leprechaun sports” you will find it) There you can see documented results of this system, already +40 units for this season...and that is after bad stretch the last few days that cost us 15 units. Note: this is NOT a site promotion...the picks there are free and will remain free throughout the season. This is about beating the man and nothing more. I’ll be posting this system in a few of my favorite forums so keeping things organized is important. I find it better to centralize information in one place instead of repeating it over and over again...which reminds me:

One important point before I get into this:

If you are interested in this system, PLEASE read the entire thread and make sure you understand before playing it or making any comments. Part of the reason I’ve always been reluctant to post in forums is that I see so many people peak into a thread looking for a fast way to make a buck and they ask the same questions that have been asked 20 times, or they bash a system without understanding it fully. I only ask that if you're going to post in this thread, please make sure you have read the whole thing first. If it looks too long and you don't want to take the time, that is fine, just say nothing. There is a lot of information in these initial posts and this thread will likely get pretty long, but it's Darwinian in a way...I'll be happy to scare off those that are too impatient to read the whole thing. It will make life much easier for the rest of us and keep the thread uncluttered.


This system is based on how teams perform in a 3 game series at home or on the road (henceforth referred to as game A, game B, and game C). Based on a formula I created, we chose a team to win 1, 2, or 3 games in a given series. If the team we play on gets swept, that counts as a loss. This differs from most chase systems out there for two reasons. First, if our team wins game A, we sometimes go for a second or even a third win in that same series. Secondly, this system does not chase to win just one unit per series. We use stats to predict our probability and unit size for each series. We can increase profit per series significantly if we let the numbers work for us, giving us a bigger bankroll, and thus allowing us to increase unit size. More importantly, we can avoid dropping big units on series losses if we keep a close eye on the numbers. Much like poker...if you know stats, you can bet big when you have a good hand, and bet small when you don't. In this game, there is no bluffing...if the numbers are against us, we fold. I'll repeat this over and over as the season progresses...NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN UNIT MANAGEMENT. There are hundreds of MLB systems out there, and the truth is that many of them work great...they usually fail because the user fails to manage their units correctly.

The plays are decided based on the matchups. This system is dynamic so there are no set teams to play on. As the season progresses, we collect team data that will put matchups in or out of the system. As each series is completed and the results are processed, the factors that decide the plays for each team changes. I think this is the most important part of the system and one of the major reasons it works so well. You are relying on up to the minute data. The team to play on and if you play the road or home team, is completely dependent on the numbers. That means teams will move in and out of the system depending on 1)how good or bad they do, 2) how good or bad their opponent does, and 3) how good or bad the league does AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES.

There are two things we have to figure out in order to "profit" from a given system. One thing is to identify a set of plays that hit at a high percentage, which I think we've managed to do, but the second part is betting those plays correctly. People often underestimate the importance of finding a way to bet any given system. Unit management is more important than the system itself. With a sport like baseball, there are hundreds of different angles and chase systems out there that have a proven track record. As I said before, the reason most of these fail is bad unit management. When you see a system that chases 4, 5, or 6 games they look enticing. However, when you get down to the actual units involved, in order to keep risk low, you have to bet such a small unit amount that the amount of work and stress involved is hardly worth the tiny profit. Either that, or the units get so out of hand that no one has the balls to play the system out (this can even happen in a 3 game chase). Just ask Angelus about that one...going 6 deep killed the Road system this year and that is a great system. It is about unit management. Six games on a Martingale scale is too many. Eventually, Arbor 12’s home chase system will run into the same wall (already got tough this year win Red Sox lost 4 in a row at home). One loss can wipe out a season worth of work. That’s why I think 3 games is the key...anything more than that and the risk gets too big for the units you can wager.

When developing this system, I tried to keep all these things in mind. Last year, I took a modified Martingale approach, pushing hard on A games and backing off on B and C games and recouping lost units later. This strategy worked pretty well for the most part, but in August I learned the system clearly lacked a disciplined approach to unit management. There was too much "gut" feeling involved instead of betting based on the numbers. Fluctuation was too high...that’s why the system profited only 120 units last year when it should have been 3 or 4 times that amount.

This year, we’ll use a modified Labourchere method (similar to PSIC's) combined with a Martingale approach. If you aren’t familiar with either of these methods, or PSIC...use google, it is your friend. The idea is explained and explored in depth with examples on my blog (you’ll have to google leprechaun sports to find it)...just click on General info but the bottom line is that this system gains strength as the season goes on and we collect more data. I expect a minimum of 50 units/month and I hope that June and July will produce twice that. No guarantees of course, but expectations are pretty high after how well 2009 went and how well our trial period went for April. Admittedly, I’m still learning and tinkering with how to bet this system, so certainly there will be some stumbling along the way...but if we follow the system, it will be very unlikely that we lose money.


The system will officially start tomorrow, May 3 (had to collect stats for the month of April). I look forward to posting the plays and results here daily or as often as I can (I have a real job and this is a lot of work!) I also look forward to being a more regular contributor in the forum...in this thread and in others. Good luck to all, and lets CRUSH the books!!


-Leprechaun

[Leprechaun]

One more quick post on units required. I suggest starting out this system with 75 units. I don’t think we’ll ever go that deep, but it is a good idea to stay conservative. The system is progressive, so as we build our bankroll, the unit amounts will get bigger and bigger. You’ll notice the plays will stay pretty small in the early going but we will build very fast. Plays will usually be posted by 10 a.m. EST each day...but often I’ll post them the night before. We’ll usually be on favorites so it’s good to get those lines as early as possible. Tonight I’ll post the plays for Monday and we’ll get things started!

Leprechaun

[AKELL]

Good Luck Leprechaun! I've been watching for the past week and things have not gone that good, but I'm very interested in seeing how this plays out for the season. I agree that you should never go over three in a chase. Even three could kill you.

Example: 4/28 LA Dodgers -300
4/29 LA Dodgers -255
5/01 LA Dodgers -185
5/02 LA Dodgers -250

Dodgers were not playing that good lately and if they would of got sweep by the Pirates would have killed anyone's bank roll.

[Leprechaun]

Thanks Akell...you aren't kidding about hitting the skids the past several days. Today was really rough...lost both games in extra innings. Made a big dent in what I was trying to do, BUT, that is why I did a trial period and don't officially start the system until May. Things are just too wacky in April in September so we use this time to collect data. The trial part of this system was a success for many reasons...not the least of which was still being up over 20 units for the month. Most importantly, I learned alot about how to approach the "build the bankroll" portion of the season and I can adjust my unit management accordingly. I'll be posting on that tonight. Thanks for following.

Leprechaun

[Leprechaun]

Okay...the trial period is over. Strangely, there will be a very inauspicious start to this system as there is only one play today. First time that has happened since I started tracking this. Weird. Lots of juice which I don't like (and Sabathia who I really don't like) but we do what the system tells us and we'll keep it small:

May 3 MLB Series System Picks (First official day!!)

1a. Yanks (-305) to win 1 unit
1b. Yanks RL (-145) to win 1 unit

Overall SU record: 0-0, +0 units
Overall SERIES record: 0-0

Good luck to all...here's to a good season!

Leprechaun

[oohgoody]

Good Luck with your system Leprechaun

[home dogs]

GL Leprachaun have been playing a similar system so far this year just have not really posted anything because there are many others that are playing a similar syatem as I....will be checking in here frequently to see what is going on GL on the plays

[Leprechaun]

May 4 MLB Series System Picks

1. Yanks RL (-115) to win 1 unit


***Results from May 3****

1a. Yanks (-305) to win 1 unit-------win
1b. Yanks RL (-145) to win 1 unit-----win


Total for May 3: 1-0, +2 units (Note: For our SU record, we count plays on TEAMS...if there is a RL and a ML play, it is only 1 win. Units count normally)


****Record and Notes***

Overall SU record: 1-0, +2 units
Overall SERIES record (through May 3): 1-0

Easy win and a nice start. Right back on them for another unit. Normally would have played them on ML but it's never to early to start protecting our winnings When we get to Thursday and Friday, things will pick up.


Good luck,

Leprechaun

[AKELL]

Nice start. You can't go too wrong playing the Yanks right now.

[Leprechaun]

That's true...ahead or behind the Yanks have been coming through with the RBIs to get the wins. I wouldn't mind if they cooled off a little just to keep the chalk down, but when they fall in the system, our money management system will protect us so we drink the juice and play what comes They will always be a team that doesn't give great value because the public loves them, but we can't ignore those units...we just have to be careful and pick our spots and when to get aggressive with them. Taking it easy for now.

Leprechaun

[Leprechaun]

May 5 MLB Series System Picks

1. Atl (-140) to win 2 units


***Results from May 4***


1. Yanks RL (-115) to win 1 unit

Total for May 4: 1-0, +1 units

-------------------------------------------------------------------

***Notes***

Nice to see another victory of course...but this is an easy series. If it was later in the season and we had the bankroll, the system says we'd play the yanks for the sweep. We'll do a lot of that when we have the luxury of large profits. For now, we play it a little closer to the vest. Still just one play for the today. This is very unusual...when we get to this weekend it will pick up and we'll start to really get into things.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

****Record***

Overall SU record: 2-0, +3 units
Overall SERIES record (through May 3): 1-0



May the force by with you,

Leprechaun

[BIGDEAL]

What % of BR are you using per unit?

[Leprechaun]

Your answer is contained in my earlier post...sort of. I suggested starting out with 75 units so we are starting off using 1.3% of our bankroll per unit (1/75). Since I'll track this for the entire season and will not be cashing out until it's over, I'll hold my units shown at a constant dollar amount. That means that the amount of units wagered will increase as our bankroll grows, not the dollar amount represented by the unit. It's too hard to keep track of profits if you express your units as a percentage of the bankroll because that percentage will change everyday as your bankroll grows.

Leprechaun

[AKELL]

I'm guessing that your chasing Atlanta to win one of the next two against Washington since they lost the first game of the series.

[Leprechaun]

That's correct. It ain't called the "series" system for nothin'. Atlanta fell into the system after that first loss. That will happen MANY times as we go through the season. Btw...if we do not start on the first game of the series, it does NOT count as a system SERIES win for statistics purposes. Those are system plays, but not series system plays. Those 2 game chases should add a significant number of units to our bottom line by season's end. I'll be posting tomorrow's plays as soon as these last couple games end.

Leprechaun.