Let the Wiz "Show you the Money"

mickey · #1 06-20-2009, 10:58 AM

NY Yankees at Florida

The line opened with 76% of the public still on the Yankees as they opened being favorites at -110 yet the line moved to the Marlins being the favorites this morning at -107 in many places. Normally I'd be taking the under here based on that movement, but to be honest I just can not fathom taking the under with the Yankees home or away. A-ROD will be out again today for rest and I think the Marlins have an excellent shot at winning this game out right!

Yankees have never faced the RHP and they have not hit RHP as well as LHP. Johnson 6-1 with a 1.07WHIP and 2.76ERA on the season owns a 3-1 record at home with a 2.02 ERA and an amazing 55:10 K:BB ratio. Night ball he owns a 1.80 ERA he just loves pitching at night and against NY as you may know he has dominated the Metsis over his career! Yankees L5 .264 and 3.20 runs per 9 last 5 will have Burnett going on the mound.

Burnett won't have the confidence and comfort of a large lead like he did in his last game with another solid pitcher on the other mound. In his last outing 7IP 0ER vs. Mets the Yankees went on to win 15-0. Burnett who has pitched well in June has struggled on the road 5.19ERA in 6GS. Only Wes Helms has had any time against Burnett, but Helms is a crafty veteran that should be able to give the rest of the team some tips. He is 3-7 with a HR vs. Burnett.

The Marlins are 11-3 with Johnson on the mound this year and 13-3 in his last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. They are 22-6 in the last 28 games he has started. Kellogg behind the plate seems to have a spot in his heart or something for the Marlins as the Marlins are 18-4 the last 22 games he's been there... but probably just coincidence.

2 Unit play on the FISH (FLORIDA)

St Louis at Kansas City **** POD ****

Something happened in last nights game that is way under the radar that not many people noticed. Pujols was intentionally walked and Ryan Ludwick came up and hit a grand slam. When Ludwick is hitting and protecting the Cardinal slugger there is not better lineup in my opinion. Pujols is the best player here and I think the Cardinals go on a run because of it.

Carpenter will take the mound for the Cardinals coming off one of his worse starts of the year going 7IP 3ER on 5H but gave up 2HR in the start. He has only given up a total of 3 all year. He's coming off two sub par starts 13IP 6ER last 2 starts, but I think he'll pitch well against a team who has yet to see him in his career. Only Jose Guillen and Buck has seen him (3-12), Buck is on the DL so that leaves just Guillen. Carpenter is also on 5 Days rest so he'll have that extra pop he needs in my opinion the Cardinals are 28-4 last 32 games in this situation. Cardinals are also 9-0 in Carpenters last 9 as a road favorite -151-200.

Bannister will take the mound for the Royals and I like to fade him today.I think he is do for another relapse of the pitcher he really is. He is also on 5Days rest in which the Royals are 2-9 in the last 11. Bannister will have a tough time with this lineup everyone from Ludwick, to Duncan hit well off him. Cardinals are hitting RHP last 10 .313avg 6.16R/9. Pujols is just 2-8 off him, but expect that to change. In his start at home vs. STL last year he went 4.2IP 9H and 7ER. Royals bullpen is not much better 7.42ERA last 3.

The Royals are 5-10 last 15 home games and have lost 90% of those games by more than 1 run! Schreiber will be behind the plate where the Royals are 2-8 in their last 10 with him there.

I like St Louis (ML)-160 for 3 units & St Louis RL-1.5 for 1 unit-110