MLB Betting News - 10/6

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Tigers at Yankees - Game 5: What Bettors Need to Know


Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (-160, 9)

Series tied 2-2

THE STORY: Three months after he was demoted to the minor leagues, rookie righthander Ivan Nova takes the mound Thursday for the New York Yankees in a winner-takes-all Game 5 of the American League Division Series at Yankee Stadium. Nova would rank among the unlikeliest of starters for a deciding game – if it were not for the presence of opposing starter Doug Fister, a trade-deadline acquisition from Seattle. Everything points in New York’s favor: home-field advantage, the momentum from Tuesday’s stay-alive 10-1 rout in Detroit, and Nova’s stellar relief effort in Game 1, when he outpitched Fister by tossing six scoreless innings in relief before giving up a pair of meaningless runs. Texas awaits the winner in Saturday’s Game 1 of the AL Championship Series.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Doug Fister (0-1, 11.57 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Ivan Nova (1-0, 2.84 ERA)

Fister turned his year around with Detroit, going 8-1 and allowing five runs in his last seven regular-season starts. While he was charged with six runs Saturday, Fister had retired 11 straight at one point – including five strikeouts – and was one out away from a 1-0 deficit when the Yankees struck for six two-out runs in the sixth.

Nova is undefeated since June 3, having 13 consecutive decisions. He won seven straight starts upon his recall from the minors and was 8-2 at Yankee Stadium during the regular season. Although he walked four batters Saturday, Nova has been able to avoid the big inning by surrendering only four homers in his last 12 starts.

ABOUT THE TIGERS: AL batting champion Miguel Cabrera torched the Yankees during the regular season, but he is 0-for-5 with three walks in the past two games. Detroit is getting zero production from too many spots in the lineup. Catcher Alex Avila is 0-for-12, Wilson Betemit 0-for-8 and leadoff batter Austin Jackson 1-for-10 in the series. Rookie reliever Al Alburquerque has been hit hard in both appearances. The Tigers haven’t lost back-to-back games since Aug. 28-29.

ABOUT THE YANKEES: No. 9 hitter Brett Gardner is 5-for-13 with five RBIs, including a pair of two-out, two-run hits in each win. After an 0-for-10 start to the series, Alex Rodriguez had a pair of hits in Game 4. Robinson Cano has eight RBIs in the series and missed a homer by inches off Fister in Game 1. Closer Mariano Rivera is rested and available for multiple innings, and CC Sabathia may also be used in relief.

TRENDS:

* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in New York.
* Over is 9-3-2 in the last 14 meetings.
* Tigers are 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Tigers are 16-38 in the last 54 meetings in New York.

FINAL PITCH: The home-field advantage may not loom as large as many think. Since Division Series play was implemented in 1995, the visiting team has won Game 5 eight of 14 times. In addition, the team that won Game 3 of a LDS that was tied emerged victorious on 19 of 23 occasions.

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MLB Preview

Fister's last start for Seattle was here July 26, a 4-1 Bronx win (Fister allowed three runs in seven IP); he gave up six runs in 4.2 innings in odd Game 1 "relief" appearance, when he resumed pitching suspended game Saturday. In his last seven actual starts, Fister is 6-0, 0.85. Bronx is 4-0 against the Tigers this year when they score 5+ runs. Nova hasn't lost since June 3 in Anaheim; he is 12-0, 3.29 in his last 15 starts. Saturday, he allowed two runs in 6.1 innings of relief. Nova didn't make a start vs Detroit this season.

[new york knight]

DETROIT at NY YANKEES

FISTER: DETROIT 4-16 in road games when playing with a day off

NOVA: NY YANKEES are 22-5 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175

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DETROIT vs. NY YANKEES

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Detroit is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home
NY Yankees are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games at home

[new york knight]

DETROIT (97 - 69) at NY YANKEES (99 - 67)

DOUG FISTER (R) vs. IVAN NOVA (R)

Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 4-16 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
FISTER is 20-35 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
FISTER is 13-27 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
FISTER is 13-28 (-13.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 99-67 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 22-5 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season.
NY YANKEES are 92-56 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 98-70 (+18.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 47-37 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 92-68 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 66-48 (+12.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 42-27 (+11.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
DETROIT is 44-31 (+11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 22-11 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
NY YANKEES are 30-34 (-17.0 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 55-54 (-17.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-5 (+2.0 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.8 Units)

DOUG FISTER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
FISTER is 1-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-2 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

IVAN NOVA vs. DETROIT since 1997
No recent starts.

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NY Yankees, Detroit Tigers ALDS Game 5 Preview
By: Willie Bee

Doug Fister is probably in the last place he thought he'd be just a few short months ago. But then, Joe Girardi probably couldn't have imagined a few weeks ago having to turn to AJ Burnett in an elimination game during the playoffs.

Such are the strange twists and turns that baseball takes, especially during the postseason. Burnett delivered in ALDS Game 4 to help knot the series between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, and force a decisive fifth game Thursday. Fister gets the call for Jim Leyland's Tigers in the 8:00 p.m. (ET) start from Yankee Stadium in New York. Girardi will send Ivan Nova to the mound in a strange rematch of Game 1 relievers.

The Yankees opened in the 155-160 chalk range, but that price is down to -150 and even a penny or two lower now. The Don Best odds screen is showing nine for Thursday's total.

Burnett got a lot of kudos for his effort Tuesday evening in Game 4, working into the sixth and allowing Detroit's only run in a 10-1 Yankees rout. But he also got a lot of help from Curtis Granderson just to survive a very shaky first inning. Burnett walked three to fill the sacks, then watched as Granderson made the first of two big grabs off the bat of Tigers right-fielder Don Kelly.

Granderson got caught misplaying the ball, but made up for the gaffe with a leaping catch going back in center. The play turned the whole game around.

Another diving catch by Granderson going into left-center stopped a would-be Detroit rally in the sixth. New York's lineup exploded for six runs in the eighth off Tigers relievers to turn the contest into a laugher, all while Yanks relievers were posting 3 1/3-innings of hitless baseball with six strikeouts.

Fister (13-18, 3.01) and Nova (19-8, 3.66) picked things up in the completion of Game 1 this past Saturday after rain halted things early in the proceedings the night before. The two kept the game 1-1 until the Yankees lineup finally wore Fister down in the fifth and sixth innings, scoring six times against him over 4 2/3 innings.

Nova put in 6 1/3-innings of work that evening, allowing two Detroit runs and striking out five in the eventual 9-3 New York win. Robinson Cano's grand slam in the sixth delivered the knockout punch.

The slam came off Tigers reliever Al Albuquerque who was again ineffective when called upon in Game 4. Detroit's 'pen has been volatile the entire series, allowing 11 earned runs in 9 1/3 frames.

Yankees relievers have countered with a 1.74 ERA over 10 1/3 innings, striking out 13 along the way.

Who might enter in relief if either or both starters get into early trouble remains to be seen. Max Scherzer, who started Game 2 for the Tigers on Sunday, could be seen if Fister can't hack it. Could there be a Justin Verlander sighting as well? He burned through 120 pitches on Monday in Game 3, two days after 25 tosses at the start of Game 1. But given the performance of his bullpen so far, Leyland could be at least tempted to call on his ace one more time.

Girardi is definitely in better shape with his bullpen, and closer Mariano Rivera is a candidate to be called upon in the eighth if needed. Baseball's all-time saves leader has made just one appearance so far, that at the very end of the completion of Game 1 last Saturday. Boone Logan, Cory Wade, David Robertson and Rafael Soriano make for a nice long bridge for Girardi to get to Rivera.

Ted Barrett is in line for the plate if the normal rotation umpire is followed. Crew chief Gerry Davis, who worked Game 3, could opt to work the plate himself. An 18-year veteran in his 12th postseason series, Barrett was 17-13-2 to the 'over' during the regular season, and worked three Yankees games, including Nova's final start on Sept. 25 (NY lost, 'over'). He didn't call a Tigers game in 2011.

After a soggy weekend in New York for Games 1 and 2, it should be a beautiful night for baseball at Yankee Stadium for Game 5. Clear skies and a crisp 60ºF at first pitch with a light north breeze (3B to 1B) is expected.

[new york knight]

Thursday's Best MLB Bets


Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (-165, 9)

Of course it was going to be Curtis Granderson to stymie Detroit just as his former club looked ready to rip the struggling A.J. Burnett apart.

Granderson made two sparkling catches in center field and picked up his fourth hit of the series in New York’s 10-1 blowout win. Things could have been a lot different if Granderson didn’t end the first inning by making a leaping grab on Don Kelly’s liner after Burnett had walked the bases loaded.

"Sometimes you pick a key out in the game and I think the key in the game happened in the very first inning when Donnie Kelly smoked that ball," Detroit manager Jim Leyland told reporters. "If it would have gotten over [Granderson's] head and he had fallen down, it might have been an inside-the-park home run."

Instead, Burnett returned to the dugout to settle down and the Yankees fed off the play and jumped out to a 4-1 lead after five innings. Now they head home with all the momentum and that play that Granderson made in the first inning may end up being the play that turned the tide in this series.

We like the Yankees to close out the series on Thursday, but there isn’t a ton of value in that wager. Instead, we’ll hit up the under; both Ivan Nova and Doug Fister have been collecting zeros all over the place lately and expect to see some big guns come out of both bullpens.

Pick: Under