MLB Betting News - Friday 9/30

[new york knight]

MLB Playoffs

Rangers are 5-4 vs Tampa Bay this year, with three of the five wins via shutouts; Rays scored 5-4-5-5 runs in their four wins, 5-0-0-2-0 in the five losses. Texas scored 7+ runs in three of its five wins. Rookie Moore has made only one big league start, but he struck out 11 in blanking the Bronx Bombers for five innings Sept 22. He was 4-0, 1.37 in nine AAA starts, after spending most of season in AA Southern League. Wilson is 3-1, 1.93 in his last six starts; he is 2-0, 2.08 in three starts vs Rays, and two of those three starts were in September. Under was 4-4-1 in the nine series games, 2-1 in this park.

Detroit is 4-3 against Bronx Bombers this year, but last of those games was way back on May 5; home team won five of seven games, as Tigers lost two of three in season opening series in Bronx. Detroit held them to 3 or less runs in three of four series wins. Bronx scored 6-10-5 runs in its three series wins. Verlander is 12-0, 2.78 in his last 13 starts; he gave up three runs in six IP in both starts vs Bronx, with Tiger bullpen losing both of those games. Sabathia is 0-1, 4.85 in two starts against Detroit in 2011-- he allowed 41 hits in his last 32.1 IP, is 0-1, 3.32 in his last three starts. Bombers are 6-6 in his last dozen starts. Over was 4-3 in series games, 3-0 in this ridiculously small park.

[new york knight]

TAMPA BAY (91 - 71) at TEXAS (96 - 66)

JEFF NIEMANN (R) vs. C.J. WILSON (L)

Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 20-30 (-25.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 97-65 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 33-17 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TEXAS is 20-5 (+12.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 this season.
TEXAS is 19-6 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
TEXAS is 93-60 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TEXAS is 71-43 (+15.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
WILSON is 46-24 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WILSON is 44-22 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 91-71 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 47-30 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 44-37 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-12 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in road games in day games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 83-63 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 31-19 (+12.9 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 51-36 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
NIEMANN is 10-3 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
NIEMANN is 9-2 (+8.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
NIEMANN is 9-3 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 5-4 (+0.8 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.5 Units)

JEFF NIEMANN vs. TEXAS since 1997
NIEMANN is 0-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 11.17 and a WHIP of 1.861.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

C.J. WILSON vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
WILSON is 4-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.18 and a WHIP of 0.970.
His team's record is 4-1 (+2.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)


DETROIT (95 - 67) at NY YANKEES (97 - 65)

JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. C.C. SABATHIA (L)

Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 111-176 (-52.5 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
DETROIT is 3-16 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 97-65 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 90-54 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 96-68 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 46-36 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 90-66 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 42-29 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 20-9 (+11.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
VERLANDER is 26-9 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
VERLANDER is 15-4 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
VERLANDER is 45-19 (+18.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 7-15 (-13.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
NY YANKEES are 53-53 (-18.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-3 (+1.7 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
VERLANDER is 4-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.06 and a WHIP of 1.548.
His team's record is 6-5 (+1.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-4. (+1.7 units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. DETROIT since 1997
SABATHIA is 15-12 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.54 and a WHIP of 1.292.
His team's record is 18-14 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 15-17. (-3.9 units)


TAMPA BAY vs. TEXAS
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Texas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

DETROIT vs. NY YANKEES
Detroit is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
NY Yankees are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit


TAMPA BAY at TEXAS
NIEMANN: TB 20-30 on Friday
WILSON: 14-1 TSR as a home favorite of -125 to -175

DETROIT at NY YANKEES
VERLANDER: DET 3-16 Away w/ day off
SABATHIA: NYY 10-0 Under if bullpen threw 9+ innings last game

[new york knight]

CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander Clash In ALDS Opener
By: Willie Bee

There's something vaguely familiar about it all.

The Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees open their ALDS exactly where they began the 2011 season when action gets underway Friday night. March 31 saw a crowd of more than 48,000 pay their way into Yankee Stadium on a chilly, damp afternoon when the Tigers and Yankees started not only their 2011 campaigns, but the MLB season.

New York scored three runs in the seventh and eighth innings that day to come away with a 6-3 win.

The weather promises to be much better for Game 1 of the ALDS. There is a 20 percent chance of rain, but all signs point to a nice evening in the Bronx with the thermometer in the mid-60s for the 8:37 p.m. (ET) first pitch on TBS.

Throwing that first pitch will be the same guy who hurled pitch No. 1 in the March 31 game, New York's CC Sabathia (22-11, 3.00). He'll be opposed by the same pitcher from the season opener, Justin Verlander (25-9, 2.40).

Early MLB odds set Sabathia and the Yankees at -130, close to the -145 line New York closed at March 31. A 7-run total has been set for Friday, a run lower than Opening Day.

Verlander should be adorned with the AL Cy Young when the awards are announced after the end of the playoffs. He won the pitching Triple Crown in the Junior Circuit with 24 wins, a 2.40 ERA and 250 strikeouts, and cemented his place at the top of the list of AL pitchers with 12 consecutive wins during the second half. Verlander will also receive consideration for the league's MVP.

All that hardware will look nice on his mantle at home, but it won't help him one bit in this game.

Verlander's 12-game win streak came to a halt in his final assignment of the regular season Sept. 24 at home against the Orioles. The big righty took a no-decision in Detroit's 6-5 loss on a -255 betting line, working seven frames and allowing five of Baltimore's runs.

Two no-decisions also were the results in his two starts vs. the Yanks in 2011. Verlander worked six innings and allowed three runs in each outing, both of which ultimately went into the loss column for the Tigers.

This will also be the third go against Detroit in 2011 for Sabathia. The Yankees split those two games, Sabathia getting a no-decision in the Opening Day victory and suffering the loss in a May 3 start in Detroit. Combined, the southpaw worked 13 innings and surrendered seven runs to Detroit, six of them earned.

Sabathia has a long history against the Tigers dating back to his days with the Cleveland Indians. He's seen them six times since joining the Yankees, New York winning three of those contests.

The two hitters in Detroit's lineup that have consistently given Sabathia the most trouble over the years have been Miguel Cabrera (9-for-16, 2 HR) and Magglio Ordoñez (19-for-71, 3 HR).

Joe Girardi was whining earlier this week about only having one day off before Game 1 of the playoffs, but the New York skipper should be fine as far as his bullpen goes for this one. Mariano Rivera, David Robertson and Rafael Soriano will have each had two days off.

AJ Burnett, who appears to be out of the rotation for at least the ALDS, only threw five pitches in Wednesday's regular season finale with Friday his normal day to start, meaning he could be used for multiple innings if Girardi needed it.

Alex Rodriguez missed Wednesday's game with a sore knee, but should be in the starting lineup Friday night.

Jim Leyland did use his closer Jose Valverde in Wednesday's win to close the season, as the Tigers were still battling for the 2-seed in the American League. But the MLB leader in saves should be dialed up and ready to go if Detroit has the lead heading into the bottom of the ninth.

Leyland and the Tigers are expected to be without second baseman Carlos Guillen for the entire ALDS. Guillen has been missing in action since mid-September with a calf injury.

Though Detroit lost the two starts Verlander made vs. the Yankees this year, the Tigers won the season series from New York, 4-3. All three games played in the Bronx went 'over' the totals.

[new york knight]

Texas Rangers Begin AL Pennant Defense Vs Rays
By: Willie Bee

To quote the great philosopher David Byrne, "Well, how did I get here?"

The Tampa Bay Rays find themselves in the American League playoffs following one of the most improbable September runs in MLB history. Their comeback – coupled with an equally amazing collapse by the Boston Red Sox – was completed with an incredible 12-inning win over the New York Yankees on the final day of the season to push the Rays into an ALDS rematch from a year ago with the Texas Rangers.

Game 1 is set for a 5:07 p.m. (ET) first pitch Friday evening at Rangers Ballpark with TBS covering the contest. CJ Wilson has been tabbed by Texas manager Ron Washington to begin the Rangers' defense of the 2010 AL Pennant. Rays skipper Joe Maddon will go with Jeff Niemann in hopes of continuing the team's improbable run.

Opening numbers at MLB betting windows made the Rangers solid 175 favorites with an 8-run total.

Even watching it all unfold the past few weeks, and especially Wednesday night, it's still hard to believe. Tampa Bay was nine games behind the Red Sox for the fourth and final playoff slot in the AL when play ended Sept. 2 before reeling off a 17-8 mark the rest of the way. Six of those 17 wins came at the expense of Boston, the heavy 4/1 favorites to win the Junior Circuit after another offseason spending spree by Sox GM Theo Epstein.

Tampa Bay was by no means a huge long shot to get this far. Even with the salary/roster purge the Rays went through last winter, they opened spring training as a 20/1 pick to win the 2011 World Series, right there with the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox who, like Boston, have been cleared to begin getting their golf games back in tune.

Leaving Tampa for greener pastures were Carl Crawford, Carlos Peña, Matt Garza, Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit and Grant Balfour. In their place trotted in Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee, the ageless Johnny Damon and, yes, Manny Ramirez. Remember him?

Third place in the AL East was deemed the best the Rays could hope for, but Maddon and his troops ignored that talk.

The run to get here has left Maddon's rotation out of whack for this series, though I'm sure he's not panicking. After all, his starters finished fourth in the majors with a 3.53 ERA, just a tad better than Texas' 3.65 mark.

Ideally, Maddon would give the ball to James Shields, but he would be pitching on short rest after taking the mound this past Monday in the series opener against the Yankees. With rookie Jeremy Hellickson and southpaw David Price also out of the picture, it left Maddon with a decision between Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and rookie Matt Moore who has made all of one career start in the majors.

Niemann (14-9, 4.06) was the logical choice despite losing twice to the Rangers in September. All told, the big righty worked 9 2/3 innings against Texas this season while allowing 12 runs.

The rotation is in much better shape for Washington and the Rangers despite Texas going hard to the end trying to gain the 2-seed in the American League bracket. Like the Rays, it's a staff without a really big name but has proven tough to beat.

That's been especially true of Wilson (21-13, 2.94) the past two seasons. Texas is 45-25 since the beginning of 2010 when the lefty takes the hill, including the postseason. Four of those 45 wins came facing the Rays.

Wilson beat Tampa Bay twice in early September, both wins coming at the expense of Niemann. He no-decisioned against the Rays in a Texas loss on May 31, and finished the season with a 2.07 ERA in 21 2/3 innings facing Tampa's lineup.

Texas was even hotter in the final month than Tampa Bay, winning 19 of 25 games and closing on a 14-2 run with a 6-game win streak to enter the postseason.

The ALDS last year between these two clubs went the full five games with the visitors earning the dubya in each matchup. The Rangers held a 5-4 advantage in the 2011 season series, going 2-1 at home and 3-3 on the road. Two of the three clashes in Texas stayed 'under' the total.

Believe it or not, the weather forecast for Friday in Arlington does not call for scorching heat. A cool front is pushing through the state today leaving what should be clear skies and a game-time temp in the low 80s with very little humidity. A north wind in the 12-18 mph range is also part of the equation (from 3B out to RF corner).

[new york knight]

Friday’s Best MLB Mound Matchup


Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers vs. CC Sabathia New York Yankees


Justin Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA)

This is Verlander’s first postseason start since 2006 and the fifth of his career. Times have definitely changed since the last time he climbed the mound in the playoffs. Back then, Verlander was just a fireballing rookie and his numbers show it.

He is 1-2 with a fat 5.82 ERA over 21 2/3 innings in the playoffs with 23 strikeouts to go against 10 walks. Batters hit him at a .292 clip and have five home runs against this season’s Cy Young frontrunner.

This season, Verlander went 24-5 with a career-best 2.40 ERA and 250 strikeouts compared to only 57 walks while holding hitters to a .192 batting average. He basically led the American League in just about every significant stat.

"This year I feel like I've just found myself to be more mentally prepared and physically prepared," Verlander told reporters. "The combination of that has led to what's going on now."

Detroit’s ace was roughed up for five runs and two homers in a 6-5 no-decision loss to Baltimore in his start of the regular season, which was the first time Detroit lost one of his starts since July 15.

CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.00 ERA)

It’s no shock that Sabathia gets the nod to start Game 1; he has opened six series already in his career and has helped New York to a 7-1 record when he has climbed the hill for the Yanks.

He comes into this start well rested. The Yanks decided to make his Sept. 21 start against the Rays his last of the regular season to give him as much rest as possible. That decision denied him a shot at his 20th win, but should serve the Yanks well in the postseason, especially if Sabathia is needed on short rest. He threw 65 pitches in simulated start last Sunday just to keep him on his regular schedule.

“Just the normal way I would go about facing righties and lefties,” Sabathia told reporters. “Trying to pitch like I would pitch in a game.”

Last season the big lefty was 2-0 in three playoff starts, but his ERA ballooned to 5.63 and batters hit .333 against him with three homers over 16 innings of work. In his postseason career he is 7-4 with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP.

[new york knight]

Friday’s Best MLB Bet


Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers (-175, 8)

It’s hard to bet against the Rangers in Game 1.

They have won 14 of their last 16, have a killer record at home (52-29) and own an offense that produced 5.28 runs per game. Plus they have C.J. Wilson on the hill Friday, a guy who has allowed more than two runs only once over his last 11 trips to the hill.

But if you were ever going to put a nice underdog bet down based largely upon momentum, you’d be hard pressed to find a better spot than Friday’s game.

"I love what the Rays do and create a first within the organization, but now we've done something as a first for Major League Baseball," Rays manager Joe Maddon said after his team pulled off a remarkable 8-7 win over New York to punch their playoff ticket.

"It's all on the guys, it's all on the coaches. If you're with us on a daily basis, the work routine, the camaraderie, the coaches preparation is outstanding. That's how we're able to overcome a nine-game deficit going into September."

Down 7-0 to the Yanks, they pulled themselves off the mat with Evan Longoria leading the way and are now playing with the house’s money. They have won five straight games and managed at least five runs in each of those victories.

At this price, we’re jumping all over the Rays to keep it going.

Pick: Rays