MLB Night Play (Balltimore/Boston)

[mickey]

Baltimore at Boston

Lets hope that the BoSox are going to get back in the groove,winning ways that is. They'll face a familiar foe from the AL East in Jeremy Guthrie. In his last 2 starts in Boston he's given up 5 ER in each without getting to the 5th inning. Expect a slightly better start from Guthrie but he remains one of the easiest pitchers to cap as he pitches well at home and during the day and that's it. His 6.34ERA on the road is more than 2 runs higher than it is at home. His 6.29ERA during the night is more than 4 runs higher than his day starts.

Boston has a .271 average, but Pedroia, Bay and Drew have big numbers off Guthrie so i expect big things. Baltimore will have their hands filled with Lester where Boston is 25-5 in his last 30 starts as a home favorite. Baltimore is hitting just .217 on the road this year vs. LHP scoring only 2.53 R/9. O's have struggled off lester as he's got a 1.09ERA in his last 5 starts vs. Baltimore. The O's are hitting just .227 and scoring 2.68R/9 over their last 10 vs. LHP. Boston is 5-0 in their last 5 home starts vs. Baltimore with Lester on the mound and they are 10-0 in his last 10 when favored -201 or more. I feel very confident knowing the Orioles have lost 79% of their road games by 1+ runs on the road this year!

Guthrie really shouldn’t have any shot in this game as his ERA of 5.12 and WHIP of 1.36 is much worse than Lester.

Lester brings an ERA of 3.87 and a WHIP of 1.29 into this. Lester is also awesome at home.Lester is a perfect 9-0 in his career against Baltimore


( Baseball Trend ) The Baltimore Orioles are 0-11 in road games vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season, losing by an average of 2.9 runs per game.

(System play) Play on any team that is an average offensive team scoring 4.7 to 5.2 runs/game facing an average AL starter sporting an ERA=4.70 to 5.70; cold hitting team batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games.They are 17-3 (+13.6 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 5.2 or more runs/game on the season this season.

Boston-1.5 RL

[rmaciasl]

sure bos will crush em

[plane-o-1]

GL mickey!!!

[mickey]

leaning toward the Rockies also.

[mickey]

winner on big play (Boston),doubled up on this game b/c of earlier 2 loses..