MLB Over/Under Capping

[Grizzly Joe]

Here's a chart which ranks each team according to current hitting power: OPS (on base% + slugging%) and pitching power: WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched).

Blues indicate good hitting or bad pitching leading to overs.

Reds indicate bad hitting or good pitching leading to unders.

The last column adds the ranks to give an overall total rank.



Any thoughts?

[Grizzly Joe]

I took the games for tonight and added up the rankings of each of the teams in each game, then ranked all the games according to Total Game ranking.

Let's say one were to bet the top 2 ranked games Over, and the bottom 2 ranked games Under.

So the bets would be:

PIT/MIL Over 8.5 -115
ARZ/COL Over 9 -115
SD/FLA Under 8 -105
ATL/STL Under 8 -105

*10 units per game, for tracking purposes, I'm not actually placing any bets, I just want to see how it does...

[Romanowski]

Joe the teams with a higher run pace are adjusted in the line

this would be great if every total was the same

you cant really do this type of analysis without using the market

[Grizzly Joe]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

Joe the teams with a higher run pace are adjusted in the line

this would be great if every total was the same

you cant really do this type of analysis without using the market

Agreed that the over ranked teams would normally have higher game totals set and under ranked teams would normally have lower game totals, but I think there is some extra room in there to use this system...

I'll keep track of things for a while to see how it turns out...

[Grizzly Joe]

Results:

PIT/MIL Over 8.5 -115 (+10) (score was 20)
ARZ/COL Over 9 -115 (-11.5) (8)
SD/FLA Under 8 -105 (-10.5) (11)
ATL/STL Under 8 -105 (+10) (7)

2-2 so far (-2 units).

Interestingly, both the predicted best over and best under won, so had we only bet only them it would have been 2-0 (+20 units), something to keep an eye on as we look into the system further...

[Grizzly Joe]

Here's the team rankings for today:



I'll make up the matchup rankings sheet later when the totals offered for all the games are out.

[Grizzly Joe]

Here are today's game rankings:



I used Pinnacle totals because they have all the totals available as of right now with the $'s Over and Under.
____________________

System 1 tracking will bet the best 2 Overs and best 2 Unders:

PIT/MIL OVER 9 -113
ARZ/COL OVER 8.5 -117
OAK/TB UNDER 8.5 -103
ATL/STL UNDER 7.5 +105

*10 units each.

Record so far 2-2 (-2 units).
____________________

System 2 tracking will bet the best Over and best Under only:

PIT/MIL OVER 9 -113
ATL/STL UNDER 7.5 +105

*10 units each.

Record so far 2-0 (+20 units).
____________________

[lechu]

Keep digging Grizz, Joe at look at pitchers that day, and teams scoring in general
plus the market that might better judgement. I like everything what you done.

[Grizzly Joe]

Originally Posted by lechusowa

Keep digging Grizz, Joe at look at pitchers that day, and teams scoring in general
plus the market that might better judgement. I like everything what you done.

Thx lechusowa.

For now, I'm not putting in any factor on the spreadsheet for who the starting pitchers are, I'm just using the team WHIP stat for the pitchers.

From what I've heard, the starting pitchers are not as high a factor as some believe, we'll see how things turn out.

[mikkii10]

how did it work out so far grizz?

[MCP313]

Just move against the opening line and play with the value......Ill take the vegas line any day of the week vs the market correction.....especially after the free 1/2 run.

Now if a game opened at 9.5 under -25 and moved to 9 im not wagering since it was tilted to begin with but if that same 9.5 moves to 10 I am all over the under 10......could care less who is pitching really since that was already factored into the opener and I do take into account lineup adjustments to top players (injuries or rest) in regards to the move. Linesmaker does the work for you in these cases, no thought required really.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Grizzly Joe

From what I've heard, the starting pitchers are not as high a factor as some believe, we'll see how things turn out.

Just can't see how starting pitchers would not be a huge factor in capping baseball totals.

[Windy City Irish]

keeth, its just one thing to look at. whose to say one or both of those starting pitchers is not going to be lights out that day. i think a weak bullpen trumps starting pitchers anyday of the week.

not saying this to be mean, but alot of the games you have won over the last couple of years have had nothing to do with starting pitchers because the bullpens blow it.

yes you get the win, the congrats and it looks good, but your philosphy was totally flawed because one or both pitchers actually did well.

its just a simple way to bet IMO. oh look. he sucks this year, bet the over. its stuff like that that vegas prays on because they know you are just going to even out over time if you are looking at just starting pitchers

just my opinion of course!

[smitch124]

I completely agree about the bullpens and their importance in betting totals. I always have trouble quantifying their contribution to a total for the purpose of capping a game. What do you use WCI?

[IrishTim]

Originally Posted by MtrCtyPimp

Just move against the opening line and play with the value......Ill take the vegas line any day of the week vs the market correction.....especially after the free 1/2 run.

That sounds like a good way to burn money.