MLB Wensday

[mickey]

Philadelphia at Arizona

PHI is the hottest team in the NL and today they look to continue there hot streak verse a very bad ARI team. Pretty simple pick here with a very good lineup for PHI and a very young pithcer Happ on the mound. Happ had his firts loss of year and 1st time he did not have a quality start in the last 7 starts. On the road he is 4-0 on the year with a 1.57 ERA. On the other side Petite goes for ARI looking for his first win on year as he is currently 0-5 on the year. Even worse he is 0-4 at home with a ballooning 8.59 ERA. ARI has trouble scoring runs and HAPP will continue his dominance. On the other side ARI can't score runs for the life of them.

( Baseball System) PLAY AGAINST home underdogs like Arizona, with a money line of +125 to +175, who are typical NL offensive team scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs a game, against a capable starter (ERA of 3.70 or less), after a loss by two runs or less. This system is 21-5 since 2005, 80.7 percent.

Philadelphia-1.5

Colorado at NY Mets

Hammel is 0-1 with a 5.52ERA in his last 3 outings.In his last 3 where he posts the 5.52ERA he had 1 road start at SD where he had a solid performance 5.1 IP 1ER for a 1.73ERA. The Mets who have run into some runs as of late have had success in the past against the pitchers they face.
Santanna will go at home where he posts a 1.86ERA. He'll face Colorado who has never seen him with the exception of Murton and Torealba who are a combined 1-6. The Rockies have a .218avg in their last 5 vs. LHP and .205 on the road this year. This team really struggles against LHP and they lose significant pop against LHP that they carry against RHP.

NY Mets

Oakland at Boston

You could probably find it out there at 9.5 but with 58% of the public on the over the line is still coming down. I'm very comfortable at 9 and will sit here getting the value on the line at +100.

Here tonight I see Oakland getting another quality start out of Brett Anderson against the Boston Red Sox. The last time Anderson was here he gave up just 2H and threw a complete game shut out. I mentioned in my article earlier that he has a 1.36ERA over his last 5 games despite facing the best teams in the AL hitting wise in DET, TB, BOS, NYY, and LAA. Very impressive and the only Red Sox player with success is Jason Bay 3-6. The team combined has a .140 avg as Anderson faced Boston one other time going 7IP 5H 2ER. Boston hitting just .143 vs. LHP over last 5 games and are hitting far worse at home vs. LHP than RHP. 1.28 runs per game less!

Red Sox send Brad Penny to the mound who has a 4.02ERA at home 1.49 runs better than his road ERA. What is more impressive is over his last 5 home starts he owns a 1.66ERA. A's who are left without Holliday haven't faced him since 2003 so many of the players have never seen the hard throwing RHP. I just don't see them able to get runs here as Oakland does have players who have seen him but just a .214 average against.

"Under" 9

[RanPicks]

GL Mick

[plane-o-1]

Good Luck mickey!!!

[Mendoza Line]

BOL! Like the Phils a lot tonight!

[50cent]

gl micky.......

[Victor]

Good luck mickey!

[smet9772]

BOL Mickey, I like that Philly play.

[mickey]

Mets was postponed (weather) & my under is shot all to hell (8 runs in 1st inning-unreal),so it is up to my Philadelphia play so as to break even.