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Old 08-13-2018, 02:16 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Monday Notes

Action Network ... Fades hitting around 80% since the break



New York Yankees vs. New York Mets

First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

I donít sigh much anymore. I grew up a Red Sox fan, through the decades of failure and losing, and there was plenty of sighing then. When the team became successful on a year-in, year-out basis and everyone hopped on the bandwagon, I kind of just hopped off.

But Monday morning, the reason for the sigh was that after putting in overnight projections, I was going to have to bet on the Mets. And doing anything with the Mets this season has produced plenty of reasons to sigh. At 49-66, they are not only trending way under their win total, but doing so with flair. Tonight, the Mets travel to the Bronx to play the Yankees in a makeup game from a rainout earlier in the season.

Plenty of bettors are avoiding the depressing path Iím choosing. Per SportsInsights at about 10 a.m. ET, 71% of bets and 93% of dollars were on the Yankees. The only thing better than taking the Mets is taking them when no one wants them. The bandwagonís empty! Letís ride!

With Jacob deGrom starting, there should at least be some reason for optimism. If it werenít for Max Scherzer, you could make a case for deGrom as the clear Cy Young favorite in the NL. If it werenít for the Mets being the Mets, you might also be able to make the same case.

Despite dominant and ultra-consistent numbers (he hasnít allowed more than three earned runs in a game since April 10), deGrom hasnít gotten much run support. New York is 9-14 in his starts, and has scored three or fewer runs 15 times in those 23 starts.

The fact remains, though, that when he pitches, the Mets have their best chance to win. My model doesnít know the teamís history, its fan baseís perpetual misery and gloomy outlook. If it did, I assume my computer would just light itself on fire to prevent future modeling.

Meanwhile, Luis Severino has been, if anything, shaky recently. After he started off excellently, the wheels have really come off the last six starts. Heís allowed three-plus earned runs in all of them, hasnít pitched particularly deep, and has allowed nine home runs in his last 32 innings.

These havenít been poor starts vs. giant killers either ó three of his last four opponents were the White Sox, Royals, and Rays, basically the exact teams you would want to play if you were trying to regain dominant form. A lot people want to point to his home-road splits this season as evidence for turnaround (heís been much better at home). But those same people would have a hard time explaining the home start against Kansas City a few weeks ago (six ER in 4.1 innings) or the fact that his home-road splits before this season are the exact opposite. The splits just seem like noise to me.

With the vaunted Yankees bullpen having most of itís key guys rested, and the Mets beingÖthe Mets, Iím going to take the First 5 innings moneyline with deGrom at only 9 cents less than the full-game, and avoid the misery Mets fans put themselves through at the end of most games. There could still be plenty of opportunity for sighing, but at least weíll get a resolution faster.


The Bet: Mets First 5 Innings ML +152
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Old 08-13-2018, 02:19 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Since the start of the 2015 season, the Atlanta Braves are 11-0 with no rest in the first game of a home series and they are off a home series when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss.
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Old 08-13-2018, 02:20 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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The San Francisco Giants are 0-14 on the road off a game as a favorite of more than 107 when playing a team that has a better record and it is post All-Star break.
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Old 08-13-2018, 02:44 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Cincy is 1-14 in Bailey's starts this year

Reds are 14-37 in Baileys last 51 starts.

Reds are 7-19 in Baileys last 26 home starts.

Reds are 3-11 in Baileys last 14 interleague starts.

Reds are 1-7 in Baileys last 8 starts vs. American League Central.

Reds are 0-4 in Baileys last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
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Old 08-13-2018, 03:01 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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It's only appropriate that Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw will face each other tonight on Left Handers Day.

The Dodgers have won each of the last 4 meetings between the two ... the last time the Giants won a game Bumgarner started opposite Kershaw was May 21, 2015.
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Old 08-13-2018, 03:09 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Good stuff
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Old 08-13-2018, 03:15 PM
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Zack Greinke last five trips to the hill, ERA of 1.26 and a WHIP of 0.7009 to go along with 35 strikeouts and only five walks.

Bartolo Colon last four starts ERA of 7.61 and a WHIP of 1.5634

Greinke owns a team win/loss record of 9-4 in his last 13 starts and in those nine wins the Diamondbacks have covered -1.5 each time.
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Old 08-13-2018, 03:37 PM
Dale City Dale City is offline
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Great info NYK
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Old 08-13-2018, 03:37 PM
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The Weather Rating distills the hitter-friendliness for a particular game into one number. It is a proprietary Fantasy Labs model and shown on a scale of 0 to 100. The Weather Rating does not account for potential rainouts; rather, it simply examines all relevant atmospheric conditions (temperature, altitude, wind speed, humidity, and so on) to determine how batted-ball distance will be impacted.


Highest Weather Ratings

Diamondbacks at Rangers: 64
Blue Jays at Royals: 61
Giants at Dodgers: 57

The Diamondbacks have made the trip from one hot state to another. However, Texas will be uncharacteristically cool tonight. Temps at first pitch will be in the mid-80s and dip into the 70s by the end of the night. With Zack Greinke facing Bartolo Colon, the total opened at 10, but has since dropped to 9.5. We can’t be certain, but we reckon the unseasonably cool weather, along with a breeze blowing in, had something to do with it.

Two subpar blue-uniformed teams face off in Kansas City, where winds will be blowing out to left/left-center. Something called S. Reid-Foley is pitching for Toronto, while Brad Keller goes for the Royals. Nearly 70% of bets and dollars are on the over (9), and rising juice suggests it may go up to 9.5.

Los Angeles also features a pitcher’s duel as Clayton Kershaw faces off against rival southpaw Madison Bumgarner. Neither is pitching like they were a couple of years ago, but that hasn’t stopped 68% of bettors from taking under 7. With a breeze out to center and balmy temperatures, they may want to reconsider.


Lowest Weather Ratings

Mariners at Athletics: 37
Indians at Reds: 49
White Sox at Tigers: 49

Two more lefties will be dueling up north in Oakland, where the hot Mariners and Athletics squads play a crucial series. Very standard weather in Oakland will bring temperatures right around 60 with a breeze blowing out. The total has remained at 8 since opening.


Rain

Like we mentioned, the Subway Series and the two aces involved will need to dodge some chances of rain. They’re not alone, though.

Mets at Yankees: This game is a double doozy because it has the highest chance of rain and two stud pitchers. According to weather.gov, which is you know … part of the government, the most likely time for showers/storms is 8 p.m. ET, but there’s a decent chance at precipitation at any given time during the game. I recommend checking the Doppler right before contests start before starting either of the pitchers.

Blue Jays at Royals: Kansas City has a threat of pop-up storms, but they’re likely to take place later in the game. Breathe a sigh of relief, S. Reid-Foley fans.

Diamondbacks at Rangers: Texas also has a chance of storms throughout the game. There will be storms in the area before the game, but the chances of precipitation in the 7-10 p.m. window drop way down before bumping back up later in the night.
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Old 08-13-2018, 03:44 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Sabathia on DL
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Old 08-13-2018, 03:54 PM
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Cardinals vs. Nationals ... 8.5

70%+ of bets tracked by Sports Insights are on the over but total dropped from 9 to 8.5

In heavy bet games (STL-WAS most bet on Monday), when there is reverse line movement the under is 352-263-33 (57%) since 2005, +80.2 units.
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Old 08-13-2018, 04:33 PM
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Any run line favorite of +135 to -190 (Dodgers) thatís coming off a division loss as a money line favorite of -150 or more, and they possess a win percentage of .510 to .540, versus an opponent (Giants) with a losing record, resulted in those run line favorites going 34-9 (79.1%) since 1997. Those 43 run line favorites outscored their opponents by 3.1 runs per game.
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Old 08-13-2018, 04:40 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Mets / Yankees

There is a flash flood warning in the area until midnight, but the worst of it has seemingly cleared out. Worst case scenario a delay, but nothing too serious and or long.
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Old 08-13-2018, 04:52 PM
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Cleveland Indians (-180) at Cincinnati Reds
7:10 p.m. ET

The Indians are tonightís second-most popular side, getting 84% of bets to this point. Theyíve landed only 62% of dollars, but have still moved from -160 to -180.

Why the public loves Cleveland ... Homer Bailey has been a nightmare for bettors this season. The Reds are 1-14 in his starts, losing 12.5 units for a -83% return on investment. With that in mind, it shouldnít really come as a surprise to see bettors fading him at every possible opportunity.



Atlanta Braves (-230) vs. Miami Marlins
7:35 p.m. (Game 2)

The Braves are the largest favorite on the board tonight, but that hasnít deterred 77% of bettors from backing them. Theyíve received only 63% of dollars, which may be the reason theyíve remained at their opening line.

Why the public loves Atlanta ... All-Star Mike Foltynewicz takes the mound for the Braves tonight. His 2.98 ERA is sixth in the National League, and heíll face the worst run-producing offense in the NL. The Marlins have also lost 10 of their past 12, and at the time of publication, were down 8-1 in the seventh inning of Game 1 of todayís doubleheader.



Arizona Diamondbacks (-175) at Texas Rangers
8:05 p.m. ET

86% of bettors behind Arizona have made the D-backs tonightís most popular team. Their line ranges around the market, but theyíve moved from -170 to -175 at Bookmaker.eu behind 80% of dollars.

Why the public loves Arizona ... Zack Greinke vs. Bartolo Colon is pretty much all a public bettor needs to see to make a decision here. Greinke enters this game with a 2.89 ERA, the fifth-lowest in the NL. Colon, on the other hand, has posted a 5.18 ERA this season.
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Old 08-13-2018, 05:13 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Sports Insights contributing Books


85% on D-Backs -170 at TEX
82% on Indians -177 at CIN
78% on Cardinals -139 vs WAS
72% on Braves -290 vs MIA
68% on Jays -122 at KC
67% on Athletics -123 vs SEA
64% on Dodgers -207 vs SF
64% on Yankees -200 vs NYM
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Old 08-13-2018, 05:27 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Bet The Greek

Sharp Action

Arizona/Texas under
Yankees
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Old 08-13-2018, 05:34 PM
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Biggest liabilities to CG Technology Sportsbooks tonight


D-Backs
Indians
Yankees
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Old 08-13-2018, 06:17 PM
BN727 BN727 is offline
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Always love the info NYK

Thanks for posting!!
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2018-19 Records
CBB str8s = 330-278
CBB Teasers = 31-40
CBB Parlays = 24-39
NHL str8s = 177-150
NHL Parlays = 12-22
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