Monday's Play--A Little Juicy, But.....

Keith · #1 08-10-2009, 06:48 AM

first the re-cap. Had a pretty good week but closed out with a loss on the D'backs yesterday. Short card today but one play stands out. A bit juicy but I think you'll see why that is in a moment.

For Monday I like the Cardinals at -165 to the Reds. Here's why:

On the surface, if you look at the numbers, the match-up would seem to favor the Reds. But when you dig deeper you'll see what I see. The Cards start righty Kyle Lohse. The Reds bat an NL-worst .237 against righties (the Reds also bat an NL-worst .233 on the road). Lohse is only 4-7 with a 4.56 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP and a .262 batting average against. Against the Reds this year he has been horrible, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and a .394 batting average against. For his career against Cincy he is 1-3 with a 5.74 ERA. He has pitched lousy since the All-Star break going 0-2 with a 5.49 ERA (although his batting average against in that time is a not so horrible .269). At home this year however he has been VERY good, going 4-3 with a 2.98 ERA and a .231 batting average against. I think that despite their success against him earlier this year, the Reds, who are batting an NL-worst .215 over the past 7 days, will have trouble tonight.

So, you read the first part and you said to yourself: "Keith, those numbers are not that good. Why would I lay -165 with that guy ?" Well, the Reds start righty Johnny Cueto. The Cards, who are batting an awesome .298 over the past 7 days, also bat a solid .268 against righties (3rd best in the NL). On the year Cueto is 8-9 with a 4.23 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP and a .264 batting average against. On the road he has done reasonably well, going 6-5 with a 3.95 ERA. Against the Cards this year he is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA. So what do I see that makes me like the Cards ? Well, it's all about "what have you done for me lately." For his last 3 starts, his ERA is 8.44. For the month of July he went 1-4 with an 8.16 ERA and a .355 batting average against. Since the All-Star break, he has allowed 35 hits and 8 walks in 22.2 innings, for an ERA of 7.15 and a batting average against of .365. In his last 5 outings, he has allowed 44 hits and 10 walks in 27.2 innings, for a WHIP of 1.985. For his career against the Cards (even including the good numbers from earlier this season), he is 2-2 with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.800 WHIP.

Look--I know Lohse has not been great recently. But Cueto has sucked more than Jenna Jameson has. The Cards are the MUCH better team, and they will demonstrate that tonight. Heavy juice I know, but I think it won't matter, as the Cards crush the Reds tonight.

Monday's play is the Cardinals at -165.

Keith · #2 08-10-2009, 06:55 AM

also figured I would change the signature quote for good luck.
I still think The Hangover was the funniest movie I have seen in a LONG time.

Kaysee · #3 08-10-2009, 07:32 AM

Love me some Cardinal Kool Aid today... See you do too, gl bud

Keith · #4 08-10-2009, 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaysee

Love me some Cardinal Kool Aid today... See you do too, gl bud

thanks KC

vikesfan · #5 08-10-2009, 08:09 AM

Gl today keith cards look solid

fat-freddie · #6 08-10-2009, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith

first the re-cap. Had a pretty good week but closed out with a loss on the D'backs yesterday. Short card today but one play stands out. A bit juicy but I think you'll see why that is in a moment.

For Monday I like the Cardinals at -165 to the Reds. Here's why:

On the surface, if you look at the numbers, the match-up would seem to favor the Reds. But when you dig deeper you'll see what I see. The Cards start righty Kyle Lohse. The Reds bat an NL-worst .237 against righties (the Reds also bat an NL-worst .233 on the road). Lohse is only 4-7 with a 4.56 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP and a .262 batting average against. Against the Reds this year he has been horrible, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and a .394 batting average against. For his career against Cincy he is 1-3 with a 5.74 ERA. He has pitched lousy since the All-Star break going 0-2 with a 5.49 ERA (although his batting average against in that time is a not so horrible .269). At home this year however he has been VERY good, going 4-3 with a 2.98 ERA and a .231 batting average against. I think that despite their success against him earlier this year, the Reds, who are batting an NL-worst .215 over the past 7 days, will have trouble tonight.

So, you read the first part and you said to yourself: "Keith, those numbers are not that good. Why would I lay -165 with that guy ?" Well, the Reds start righty Johnny Cueto. The Cards, who are batting an awesome .298 over the past 7 days, also bat a solid .268 against righties (3rd best in the NL). On the year Cueto is 8-9 with a 4.23 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP and a .264 batting average against. On the road he has done reasonably well, going 6-5 with a 3.95 ERA. Against the Cards this year he is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA. So what do I see that makes me like the Cards ? Well, it's all about "what have you done for me lately." For his last 3 starts, his ERA is 8.44. For the month of July he went 1-4 with an 8.16 ERA and a .355 batting average against. Since the All-Star break, he has allowed 35 hits and 8 walks in 22.2 innings, for an ERA of 7.15 and a batting average against of .365. In his last 5 outings, he has allowed 44 hits and 10 walks in 27.2 innings, for a WHIP of 1.985. For his career against the Cards (even including the good numbers from earlier this season), he is 2-2 with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.800 WHIP.

Look--I know Lohse has not been great recently. But Cueto has sucked more than Jenna Jameson has. The Cards are the MUCH better team, and they will demonstrate that tonight. Heavy juice I know, but I think it won't matter, as the Cards crush the Reds tonight.

Monday's play is the Cardinals at -165.

--I know Lohse has not been great recently.

Good pick Keith but would this take you off the run line ?

Fats...........................................

Keith · #7 08-10-2009, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fat-freddie

--I know Lohse has not been great recently.

Good pick Keith but would this take you off the run line ?

Fats...........................................

I hate run line plays, because while I would like to hope that this game won't be that close, it certainly could be (it's a baseball game--anything can happen), so if my team won by only 1 run, I would hate to have still lost my play.

THE Sports PROFIT · #8 08-10-2009, 12:34 PM

Speaking of which, I'm on the runline Keith. It's rare we have the same game, but if memory serves me correctly when we do we tend to cash. So a St Louis win by 2 or more tonight will be fine for both of us.

Keith · #9 08-10-2009, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by THE Sports PROFIT

Speaking of which, I'm on the runline Keith. It's rare we have the same game, but if memory serves me correctly when we do we tend to cash. So a St Louis win by 2 or more tonight will be fine for both of us.