Monday's Play--Wait On This One !!

Keith · #1 06-01-2009, 06:31 AM

first the re-cap. Officially passed yesterday, but I did post the White Sox, a +160 winner. Lost on Saturday night by 1/2 a run. Cooled off alot last week so hopefully I can start a new streak today.

For Monday, I like the over in the Mets/Pirates. But wait on this one. Right now (as of almost 7:30 am) the total is 9.5, with the under at -120. This one could drop to 9, and for obvious reasons, I would much prefer it at 9 as opposed to 9.5.

The Pirates start Ian Snell. They'd be better off with Ian Zeiring (of BH 90210 fame). He is 1-6 on the year with a 5.43 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP and a .269 batting average against. His ERA over his last 3 starts is 8.31. At home this year his ERA is 5.14. For his career against the Mets he is 0-2 with a 6.11 ERA and a 1.704 WHIP. The Mets, who are batting .266 over the past 7 days, and who bat an NL-best .279 on the road, will get to Snell tonight.

Meanwhile the Mets start Livan Hernandez. He is doing the same thing he has done the past few years. Chews up innings early in the year and wins games--but only because he is on a good team--certainly not because of how well he pitches. On the year he is 4-1 with a 4.28 ERA, but his WHIP is 1.41 and his batting average against is .304. On the road this year his ERA is 4.91 and his batting average against is .316. Over the past 3 seasons (not including this year), his ERA against the Pirates (at PNC) was 6.30 and his batting average against (also at PNC) was .395. The Pirates are batting a solid .280 over the past 7 days and they bat a very nice .281 at home this year (3rd in the NL).

Over the past 3 years, 12 of 15 matchups between these two teams went over the total. 3 of 3 went over this year. Good trends in our favor here.

Monday's play is over in the Mets/Pirates.

fat-freddie · #2 06-01-2009, 06:59 AM

Nice info Keith, here I was thinking under on this one myself

You may have just saved my ass man, thanks for the write up on this one

Good luck,

Fats.............................................. ............

Keith · #3 06-01-2009, 07:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fat-freddie

Nice info Keith, here I was thinking under on this one myself

You may have just saved my ass man, thanks for the write up on this one

Good luck,

Fats.............................................. ............

thanks Fats. Early line movement is towards the under, so obviously other people had the same inclination you did.

vikesfan · #4 06-01-2009, 08:02 AM

Good Luck Keith Cash It.

Keith · #5 06-01-2009, 08:25 AM

thanks Vikes.

vegasbet03 · #6 06-01-2009, 09:15 AM

Best to you Keith. If you don't mind i have some suggestion .. Base on your write up does it safer to bet on the mets. In addition the pirates bat is nonexist in the last couple game. Better odd and better chance of winning on the met instead the total. What do you think? I've been drive with you all these time and thank you for these picks in advange.

Keith · #7 06-01-2009, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vegasbet03

Best to you Keith. If you don't mind i have some suggestion .. Base on your write up does it safer to bet on the mets. In addition the pirates bat is nonexist in the last couple game. Better odd and better chance of winning on the met instead the total. What do you think? I've been drive with you all these time and thank you for these picks in advange.

I don't know Vegas---line seems a little cheap for the Mets. Plus I simply cannot trust Livan Hernandez. I'd sooner pass before I did the Mets as a side play.

GL today whatever you do.

Keith · #8 06-01-2009, 09:46 AM

as I anticipated, according to whoresandodds, the total has dropped to 9.

boiseboy · #9 06-01-2009, 09:49 AM

good luck with your over tonight keith!!!!!!! there has been a boat load of unders over the last 5 days in the national league...all things even out and we should get some overs rolling here this week, hopefully it starts with yours....

boise...

g_rock65 · #10 06-01-2009, 09:50 AM

Will ride along with this winner today! GL to us!!!

capperdan · #11 06-01-2009, 09:52 AM

bucs 10 mets 0

go bucs!

Keith · #12 06-01-2009, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boiseboy

good luck with your over tonight keith!!!!!!! there has been a boat load of unders over the last 5 days in the national league...all things even out and we should get some overs rolling here this week, hopefully it starts with yours....

boise...

thanks Boise and g_rock.