mv's chases

[mvalentin]

k spent my 1st month betting on baseball and think I'm getting a better read, but still not there and I like to take certain angles as opposed to picking a specific game. Saw this work well for me early but also fail (chased the Nationals for about 4 games to get a win, it took more than that). So I will keep my plays in check pending on the individual matchups.

Anyways I won't include the games I'm playing in the home chase series that I'm playing on this forum

warning: I'm very streaky, I go on big winning streaks and big losing streaks, so I can be a good person to fade at times and usually in my writeups I provide why my bet will win and why it'll lose

anyways cheers

Apr 29

Angle: Oakland to win 1 road game

Hoping it won't go to the 4th or 5th game but this angle will be ok to chase as the Athletics will get good value the next two against Texas. Also I feel that their bullpen can bail them out of a tough game or two, they have the lowest OBA in the majors at .276 and a 2.64 ERA. Only Boston's pen has a better ERA. Problem is 2 blown saves out of 6 attempts. Also this team is pretty banged up on the offensive side.

Goal: 1 Unit
GM1: Athletics +127 0.79 Units to win 1

Angle: Cardinals to win one game in the next 4

Braves on the slate first and the Cards are in this as dogs coming off a close 2-1 loss. So I like the value play here, but the Cards also have 4 games at Washington for insurance after this (but it'll be expensive insurance). I've watched a couple Nationals games and I actually feel that their offense has been decent, its just that their bullpen is terrible. They are due to win a series. But uf the Cards don't do it tonight, they'll at least win one game in D.C.

Goal: 1 Unit
GM1: Cardinals +104 0.96 Units to win 1

Angle: Fading Vicente Padilla

Rangers are actually 3-1 when Padilla starts but he has been pitching horribly. The bullpen won't be there to bail him out either with a 6.41 ERA. Closer Francisco and Holland have been outstanding, but Holland could possibly be moved to the starting rotation and hopefully the Middle Relief and Padilla himself won't put Francisco in a position to close. Other than tonight against the Athletics, Padilla is projected to start on the road against Seattle and the White Sox

Goal: 1 Unit
GM1: Athletics +127 0.79 Units to win 1
(two plays in one here but chases will lead to different directions)

[mvalentin]

won the Cardinals game for +1 Unit, but Rangers Athletics game got rained out. Double play today

Apr 30

Angle: Athletics to win 1 road game
Goal: 1 Unit
GM1: Athletics +114 0.88 Units to win 1

Angle: Fading Vicente Padilla
Goal: 1 Unit
GM1: Athletics +114 0.88 Units to win 1

[mvalentin]

adding 1 more

Angle: Dodgers to at 1 game in Padres series
Goal: 1 Unit
GM1: Dodgers -144 1.44 Units to win 1 Unit

[mvalentin]

Athletics bullpen is clutch. Glad to kill two birds with one stone in first game of a chase. Good start so far.

anyways forgot to put a reasoning behind my Dodgers chase

Angle: Dodgers to win at least 1 game in Padres series
Goal: 1 Unit
GM1: Dodgers -144 1.44 Units to win 1 Unit

McDonald may have a tough time tonight, but the Dodgers are hot and should have a little motivation coming off a series loss to the Giants. I also like that if my chase should go to a 4th game on sunday that The Chad is projected to start, but I have confidence in the Dodgers to get me my one unit today or tomorrow.

Only danger is that the Padres hit the top of their rotation and have been slumping with series losses to the Pirates and Rockies. A win or two against their socal rivals could motivate this team to aim for the sweep

[mickey]

gl to ya MV.

[mvalentin]

thanks Mickey

love the Dodgers

4-0 4 Units won, glad none of these went to a 2nd game

[mvalentin]

Angle: Nationals to win one game at home vs Cards
Goal: 1 Unit
GM1: Nationals -117 1.17 units to win 1

Ok the Nationals are horrible. But I'm in Montreal and I feel the spirit of Youppi, the Expos mascot, saying that this is their weekend. Obama just passed his 100th day in office and the economy is horrible, good karma is bound to hit the nation's (not mine) capital, even against the red hot cardinals.

Zimmerman, Dutchman Martis, and Lannan are all on the slate for the weekend and I just need one of them to go 7 innings and not leave it up to the bullpen. Zimmerman has pitched well in his two starts with 40% of the Nationals 5 wins. And the bullpen actually kept their end of the bargin during his starts.

Martis is 2-0 but got rocked last time against Philly. To me he's in form and think he will improve as the season goes along.

Meanwhile the Nationals are 0-5 when Lannan starts but all his bad performances seem to be on the road. At home against Florida he only gave up 1 run and versus the Braves, he gave up zero. Both time he did not receive run support.

So I figure the Nats are due and I'm going to pray to Youppi this weekend in his hometown. But then again the Nats are the Nats, and no discredit to the Arizona women's softball team but I'm pretty sure they would have no problem getting hits off of them. And the Cards are a powerhouse and Pujols is Pujols.

happy betting

degeneratly yours,

MV

[mvalentin]

Angle: Nationals to win one game at home vs Cards
Goal: 1 Unit
GM1: Nationals -117 1.17 units to win 1 LOSS
GM2: Nationals +118 1.84 units to win 2.17

[mvalentin]

Thank you Nats

Chase stats since apr 279
GM1: 4-1
GM2: 1-0

Total winnings: 5 units

Small two game chase

Athletics to win one of the next two vs the Mariners
Goal: 1 unit
GM1: Athletics +119 0.84 units to win 1 unit

To me the next two pitching matchups are about 50/50. Cahill has yet to record a win, but pithched decent against the Jays, Angels (when they had vladdy) and Mariners. Only bad spot was his last outing vs the Rays. But he's one of the few young pitching studs to get the underdog and I kinda feel that its a coin toss against Washburn.

Outman is on the slate for tomorrow and his father wrote a book on pitching mechanics. Jakubauskas father did not. This has very little to do with this matchup but I think either saturday or sunday that the bullpen for the athletics will mix well with the starters for at least 1 win. The weak spot of the bullpen Giese pitched last night and Springer had a tough loss. So the other guys will be ready to either hold a lead or put the Athletics in position for a late win

happy betting

degenerately yours
MV

[mvalentin]

hit the athletics in game 1, 6-0 on my chases now

thinking about chasing the astros in the next three games, but I am unclear about the rotation for the next three and won't pull the trigger till then

any info/help appreciated

thanks

[mvalentin]

two chases , and gott jet quick no time to ramble on about random facts as i'm sneakin this bet and post in during sunday brunch


St Louis to win 1 game in the next 3

this chase is value and might actually lose as they hit phillys top of the rotation tomorrow

Houston to win 1 game in the next 3

if they lose today this could be an expensive chase as they havve the nats up next and oswalt on tuesday

happy betting

[mvalentin]

Cards game rained out, but hit the Houston Astros to go 7-0 on my chases now for +7 units, even I expected one of them to lose, hope I can keep it up this week


Angle: St.Louis to win 1 game in next 4 at home
Goal: 2 Units
GM1: STL -130 2.6 units to win 2 units

The Cards are coming off a random loss to the Nats and I like this first place team's chances to not have this turn into a 5 game losing skid.

I actually think the 1st two games against philly are tough. Both bullpens are rested and Blanton and Myers will no doubt step up their game against the Cards. Still I have faith in Lohse and the Cardinal bats to get it done in game 1 and if not, I have backup in games 3 and 4 vs the Pirates who I hope will stay grounded

Mostly though I'm on the Card not going through a 5 game losing streak. Their biggest last year was 7, but this team is much better. This is still a team on a hot streak and that last loss was more them giving back to the economy. They saw those empty seats in the nation's capital and felt it was their civic duty to lose one to that horrible team.

Angle: Athletics to win 1 game in next 4 at home
Goal: 1 Unit
GM1: OAK -102 1.02 units to win 1 unit

The Athletics are banged up. Everyone including tonight's starter Anderson has some splinter, back ache or flu of some sort. With that in mind the As have 4 games at home and have one of the best bullpens in the Majors.

Sweeney is on a hitting streak, Holliday is bound to bounce back after going 1 for 10 in the last two and Petit is eager to take the job away from an injured Ellis. Also the As are 4-3 in the last 7 but those 3 losses were only by 1 and can be attributed more to bad managerial decisons and lack of depth due to injuries

1st game is tough against lefty Saunders, as this left handed hitting lineup had trouble early on against lefty starters. Also the Angels bats even without Vladdy are starting to pick up. But thier bullpen stinks. May lose this one tonight but tomorrow I have the Braden on the mound and two games against the Rangers for back up in games 3 and 4

However if more injuries occur in the next two games, I will back out of this chase

Angle: Blue Jays to at least 1 game in 2 game series vs Indians
Goal: 1 Unit
GM1: Jays -115 1.15 units to win 1 unit


Warning I am a big Jays homer so the foundations of this chase are based on pure emotion. Really need Tallet to win tonight vs Carmona, because Cecil who is up from Vegas is on the mound tomorrow. This guy has talent but I didnt see him coming up to the Tdot until maybe August. He will have great value throughout the year but I just don't know how he'll fare in his first start



thats all for now

happy betting

Degenerately yours

MV

p.s. also may chase the Dodgers for another home win although I feel that streak coming to an end maybe tomorrow with Weaver on the mound for LA

[mvalentin]

lost all 3 last night and I actually backed out of the Dodgers bet. Now I gotta go to game 2 for all of them, not confident about the Jays , but I like the As and Cards tonight (will list the night games later as I am shopping for the best price- very important in chases

May 5 afternoon

Angle: Blue Jays to at least 1 game in 2 game series vs Indians
Goal: 1 Unit
GM1: Jays -115 1.15 units to win 1 unit loss
GM2: Jays -1120 2.58 units to win 2.15 units

also adding two new long term chases

Angle: Astros to win at least once in next 3 when Oswalt Starts
Goal: 1 Unit
GM1: Astros -123 1.23 units to win 1 unit


If this loses this afternoon, Oswalt is projected to have San Diego at home, then he should get good value playing the Cubs at Wrigley



Angle: Giants to win at least once in next 3 when Lincecum Starts
Goal 1 Unit
GM1: Giants -106 1.06 uits to win 1 unit

This is a value play as this chase starts off in Wrigley then the next two aree against the Dodgers in LA and the Mets at home. Unlike the Vancouver housing market Lincecum won't get overinflated value in both. Also I've very proud that I spelled this guy's name correctly for the first time in my life. If I lose this chase, no one can take that away from me

[mvalentin]

good start for the day 2-0 and 1 ppd game, glad to get the jays chase out of the way 9-0 in completed chases now for +9 units but two open chases going into game 2. And if i were to cap these games individually I would avoid both. So that +9 units could easily be wiped out

But you gotta do what you gotta do

Angle: St.Louis to win 1 game in next 4 at home
Goal: 2 Units
GM1: STL -130 2.6 units to win 2 units LOSS
GM2: STL -128 5.89 units to win 4.6


I like Wainwright starting and maybe the winning one fo Ankiel motivation, but still a tough bet against Myers. Even though Pitt is on slate for game 3, its Boggs against a hot Duke so I may have to lower my unit goal of 2 units to 1, should this be lose tonight

Angle: Athletics to win 1 game in next 4 at home
Goal: 1 Unit
GM1: OAK -102 1.02 units to win 1 unit LOSS
GM2: OAK -141 2.85 units to win 2.02 units

As are banged up and feel that the price for Braden is a bit inflated. If I didn't like the bullpen so much I would have about 0% conidence in tonights bet

cheers and happy betting

[mvalentin]

mmmmmmmmmmm, learning hard how a 9-0 record can be wiped out by 1 bad losing streak.


St.Louis chase
GM3: STL -144 12.21 units to win 8.48


50/50 on wheather or not to take oakland tonight. I kinda of feel that minor league vet Giese has something to prove, but will wait closer to game time on this one