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Old 07-16-2018, 03:51 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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NYK HR Derby

Field vs. Harper -290


Harper is the favorite tonight ... According to SportsOddsHistory, only one favorite since 2010 has won the event (Giancarlo Stanton +330 in 2016) ... On average, the odds-on favorite has finished in 4th place.


Never a fan of playing massive chalk in any sport, just playing small for action / fun.
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Old 07-16-2018, 05:40 PM
TCD619 TCD619 is offline
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A quick look at past #MLB #HomeRunDerby champs and their betting odds:

2017 Judge +180 (2nd overall fave)
2016 Stanton +400 (T-1st)
2015 Frazier +500 (T-1st)
2014 Céspedes +500 (T-3rd)
2013 Céspedes +600 (5th)
2012 Fielder +600 (4th)
2011 Cano +900 (7th)
2010 Ortiz +300 (2nd)
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Old 07-16-2018, 05:59 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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I don't use odds from Jason Logan / covers ... SportsOddsHistory is a lot better source
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Old 07-16-2018, 06:02 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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From William Hill's 108 Nevada Books ...



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Old 07-16-2018, 06:06 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Using the betting odds for each participant since 2010, John Ewing calculated the correlation coefficient to determine if there was a relationship between implied probabilities based on the betting odds and the finishing position of hitters as well as the number of home runs each slugger smacked during the Derby. A correlation coefficient of 1 indicates perfect correlation, -1 means there’s a perfect negative correlation and zero indicates no correlation.

The correlation coefficient between the implied probability of a hitter winning and where the player finished in the standings is -0.31. The correlation coefficient between the implied probability of a hitter winning and the number of home runs he hit is 0.25. This tells us that the betting odds are not predictive of success.
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