over/under systems ?

[mikkii10]

does anyone have a have desent one that works?Iam asking this because iam having trouble picking teams that can win a dam game lol at least this way i dont have to worry about who wins as long as the score alot of runs.

[Keith]

don't think systems really apply so much with totals, as much as stats do at least. There are 8-10 different stats I look at when capping (and looking for an over play). Mostly related to the pitchers (of course).

[mikkii10]

thanks keith

[cuzzinbrucie]

A guy "down the street" had one that I will start playing next week. Kind of a semi chase. Goes something like this.

Using statfox figures, review the percentages of times every team goes either over or under. Look for every team that has either gone over or under at least 57% of the time. Of that group, look for teams that have gone the opposite way the last two consecutive games. Here's a hypothetical. Team X has gone OVER 61% of the time, but that includes the last two games, in which it has gone UNDER. This is a team you will now play.

You will be wagering to win 1 unit. You will bet that team X's next game goes OVER the total. If it does, congrats! you win and the series is over. If it goes under, then go to the next team X game and bet, on OVER, to win one unit + what you lost in your first game. Again, if the game goes over, you win, and the series is over.

You play the series out ONLY THROUGH 3 GAMES. WIN OR LOSE THE SERIES ENDS THERE.

Two other requirements. If there is a push, series ends then and there, no exceptions. Also, no wagers on interleague games.

The player "down the street" posted results of 40-1 with 3 pushes during a stretch from April to June in 2007.

As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Gamble wisely, and good luck.

[mikkii10]

thats sounds intresting bruce

[mikkii10]

Originally Posted by cuzzinbrucie

A guy "down the street" had one that I will start playing next week. Kind of a semi chase. Goes something like this.

Using statfox figures, review the percentages of times every team goes either over or under. Look for every team that has either gone over or under at least 57% of the time. Of that group, look for teams that have gone the opposite way the last two consecutive games. Here's a hypothetical. Team X has gone OVER 61% of the time, but that includes the last two games, in which it has gone UNDER. This is a team you will now play.

You will be wagering to win 1 unit. You will bet that team X's next game goes OVER the total. If it does, congrats! you win and the series is over. If it goes under, then go to the next team X game and bet, on OVER, to win one unit + what you lost in your first game. Again, if the game goes over, you win, and the series is over.

You play the series out ONLY THROUGH 3 GAMES. WIN OR LOSE THE SERIES ENDS THERE.

Two other requirements. If there is a push, series ends then and there, no exceptions. Also, no wagers on interleague games.

The player "down the street" posted results of 40-1 with 3 pushes during a stretch from April to June in 2007.

As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Gamble wisely, and good luck.

will looking at the treads do the same?

[Keith]

no disrespect to Brucie and that "system", but to me, trends are not nearly as significant as the various pitching and team batting stats that I utilize. I look at the trends, and certainly like them to be in my favor, but I won't pass up a play simply because the trends run the other way.

[cuzzinbrucie]

certainly understand Keith's thinking here. A strong capper might/should be able to pick out some real strong plays that a mechanical system is not designed to find. If you don't have time or inclination to do thorough capping, though, a system may be a good alternative.

[AlphaDog]

You will never be successful at sports betting if you rely solely on "systems". You think oddsmakers don't know about "systems"?


Be sharp. Know your ballparks. Find which ballparks have produced the most overs or unders historically. Believe me, it matters. There are hitters parks and there are pitchers parks.


Many stat engines will have Groundball/Flyball (GB:FB)ratios for pitchers. That helps me. Wind going out in a hitters park with a pitcher that gives up a lot of fly balls? Thats an over bet for sure!!! Also walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP) can be more indicative of a pitchers performance than their era.

Totals have great value because often you can play a game at a much smaller price than if you played a side.

Get used to trusting your gut.

Learn (what factors play into totals). Don't lean (on systems).

[mikkii10]

Originally Posted by AlphaDog

You will never be successful at sports betting if you rely solely on "systems". You think oddsmakers don't know about "systems"?


Be sharp. Know your ballparks. Find which ballparks have produced the most overs or unders historically. Believe me, it matters. There are hitters parks and there are pitchers parks.


Many stat engines will have Groundball/Flyball (GB:FB)ratios for pitchers. That helps me. Wind going out in a hitters park with a pitcher that gives up a lot of fly balls? Thats an over bet for sure!!! Also walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP) can be more indicative of a pitchers performance than their era.

Totals have great value because often you can play a game at a much smaller price than if you played a side.

Get used to trusting your gut.

Learn (what factors play into totals). Don't lean (on systems).

thats a good post my friend and learn alot to from it thank you

[marleans]

No system needed....just play the under, it must be hitting at a 65% clip or better at this point in the season.