**Runline System Plays**

[Cubbiefan16]

Anyone that knows me on here knows that I mainly try to develop winning systems, computer plays, etc. My main work went into college basketball, and my plays would win for a little and then flatten out. I think there is too much variance and unpredictability in college basketball to be able to develop consistency. Anyway, I've been working on this runline system, and decided I would start putting the plays out there. It's been running well but hasn't been tested long enough to ensure confidence in the results. By that, I mean I'm suggesting no one follow or base anything on these plays just yet. Here are the plays:

Detroit RL +145 - 1 unit to win 1.45

LA Angels RL +110 - 2 units to win 2.2

Best of luck to everyone tonight.

[Cubbiefan16]

Record: 1-1, -.55 units

There will be no plays tomorrow. Good luck to everyone.

Edit: San Francisco and St. Louis are both strong plays for tomorrow, but don't quite qualify as RL plays.

[Cubbiefan16]

Haha. Made a mistake on the second play. I have not yet fully automated the system and incorrectly input the Angels as the home team (not quite sure how). The Angels should not have been a play. If the game were played at home, my system has an average victory of 1.92 runs for the Angels, enough to qualify for a system play. However, on the road under the same circumstances, the Angels win by only an average of 1.18 runs, which does not qualify for the system. Anyways, I don't expect anyone to believe that and will definitely leave the record as 1-1, but the Tigers should have been the only play today. Dumb mistake that won't happen again...especially when I can make this fully automatic - shouldn't be that hard to do in the near future.

See you guys soon - good luck to everyone tomorrow.

[Cubbiefan16]

A little early but there is a play for Friday.

Detroit Tigers RL +150 - 1 unit to win 1.5

My system has this runline winning at a rate of 52% and the game by an average of 2.55 runs. Although these numbers are of much too small a sample size to be confident at any level of significance. That's why this is only a 1 unit play; if it were a non interleague game, the play would be for 2 units.

Good luck everyone.

[Cubbiefan16]

Tough loss on the Tigers tonight, with a two run homer in the ninth for the Rocks. But I'm definitely confident in the numbers my system had for that one - 2 run lead with 1 in the 8th to make it 3 - 2.55 seems pretty accurate. Record should be 1-1, +.45 units but with the posting error, currently overall:

1-2, -1.55 units


I'm becoming more and more confident in these plays, so I'll continue to post them... I have three for tomorrow. Listed pitchers only.


St. Louis Cardinals RL +125 1.5 units to win 1.875 units

Boston Red Sox RL +115 .5 units to win .575 units

Los Angeles Dodgers +170 1 unit to win 1.7 units


Best of luck everyone.

[PGAman]

Good Luck

[Cubbiefan16]

Thanks PGAman. Have some decent over umps today which is advantageous for these plays. Hated seeing H in Detroit yesterday but without the 9th inning melt down, should have still got the win. Good luck to you today.

[mikkii10]

some of your run lines iam betting on straight up maybe that my help me lol i hope.

[Cubbiefan16]

Originally Posted by mikkii10

some of your run lines iam betting on straight up maybe that my help me lol i hope.

Lol, definitely couldn't hurt - except on some of these the ML juice will be pretty high. And I will add (and this is backtracked for four years) -- that on the 3 unit plays, IF the team wins outright they will win by an average of 4.10 runs with a standard deviation of 3.31; and the 1-2 unit plays (again, IF they win) will win by an average of 3.62 with a standard deviation of 2.84. So that's why these plays are exclusively on the runline and not the moneyline, because of the high average margin if the team wins in the first place. Good luck on your plays mikkii

Updated overall record before the two night games:

2-2, +.325 units

[mikkii10]

thanks cubbie

[Cubbiefan16]

Hope you were on the Dodgers RL last night mikki lol..

Overall record: 2-4, -1.175

Today:

Detroit Tigers RL +125 2 units to win 2.5

Good luck today everyone.

[Cubbiefan16]

Originally Posted by Cubbiefan16

Hope you were on the Dodgers RL last night mikki lol..

Overall record: 2-4, -1.175

Today:

Detroit Tigers RL +125 2 units to win 2.5

Good luck today everyone.

Er..meant Dodgers ML obviously lol, didn't want you to lose mikki. Red Sox ML should have worked out for you too if you were on that, one in a hundred HR there.