San Diego Padres over/under 76

[Dr. Jack]

San Diego Padres over/under 76

Last year 2nd NL West
overall: 90-72
home: 45-36
away: 45-36

Betting
overall money: +1513
home money: -32
away money: + 1545
favorite money: + 38
dog money: + 1475

[smitch124]

I think they won with pitching and playing really solid ball last year. Will losing Gonzalez hurt? Of Course, but 14 games worth? Don't see it, over.

[rjb1816]

lmao no respect. Over over over. Team loses Ag but improved in a number of other spots. And the division isn't filled with strong teams

[Dr. Jack]

also like the over in this one. Like smitch says, not sure if AG makes 14 games worse.

[Cali Roots]

No he is not worth 14 games, but at the same time this team was not a 90 win team. They overachieved big time. Even with AG I think their total would be around O/U 80-82

[rjb1816]

They didn't really overachieve. They pitched very well and they will again this year. Upgraded the offense overall and teams in the division have gotten worse. Team had a horrible sept and still won 90

[MCP313]

This has under written all over it. This team couldn't score with Gonzalez and and now hes gone and their bullpen was amazing last year and if history is any indicator even if their pen has another good season it will still be impossible to duplicate.

Downgrade the hitting a notch and the pitching a notch and you get back the old Padres who didnt have a strong run differential last year to match that record anyways.

[rjb1816]

Originally Posted by MtrCtyPimp

This has under written all over it. This team couldn't score with Gonzalez and and now hes gone and their bullpen was amazing last year and if history is any indicator even if their pen has another good season it will still be impossible to duplicate.

Downgrade the hitting a notch and the pitching a notch and you get back the old Padres who didnt have a strong run differential last year to match that record anyways.

Their hitting didnt get worse, they will have ludwick for a whole year, bartlett, hudson...all upgrades. In addition they are better defensively up the middle and the corners. The offense is going to be better because guys at the top will get on base rather than relying on one batter to supply all the runs.

Also their young pitchers will be better this year and starters will have more depth. Pen will be a little bit weaker but they won 90 and were way under .500 in sept. This team is not 14 games worse...the reason the line is low is because everyone thinks Adrian was the whole team when in actuality it was the pitching that carried them and it will again with a more balanced offense

[Andre]

under, barely

[vikesfan]

If i have to pick i will go over

[dhunter]

Originally Posted by rjb1816

Their hitting didnt get worse, they will have ludwick for a whole year, bartlett, hudson...all upgrades.

ludwick sucked last year and now he has no protection in the lineup. he'll probably be even worse this year. and i wouldn't say bartlett and hudson are upgrades. at least not offensively. they will still games on their pitching but not as many as last season. i think they will be very close to 76.

[MCP313]

Originally Posted by rjb1816

Their hitting didnt get worse, they will have ludwick for a whole year, bartlett, hudson...all upgrades. In addition they are better defensively up the middle and the corners. The offense is going to be better because guys at the top will get on base rather than relying on one batter to supply all the runs.

Also their young pitchers will be better this year and starters will have more depth. Pen will be a little bit weaker but they won 90 and were way under .500 in sept. This team is not 14 games worse...the reason the line is low is because everyone thinks Adrian was the whole team when in actuality it was the pitching that carried them and it will again with a more balanced offense

Their hitting did get worse. Ludwick is garbage and Maybin & Bartlett arent very good either. Hudson is pretty fragile these days also. But their hitting wasnt their strength anyways when they won 90 games so if it is worse like I say thats not where the loss of games is coming from.

Its coming from the pitching. Garland is gone and good luck getting out of Latos this year what they got last year. I dont believe in the innings theory of a pitcher getting bumped up from year to year but this will be the ultimate test with Latos.

I think the biggest downfall will come from the pen late in games because what happened there last year was otherworldly.

Sure they won 90 games but even last season their metrics & run differential didnt support 90 wins so thats a fluke to assume that as a baseline anyways.

Factor in the bad offense and overachieving pitching from a year ago along with the extreme luck needed to win 90 last season as currently constructed and they will be extremely lucky to even sniff 500.

Im near certain this number goes up because people will think this is a good which they arent. Im not saying they are garbage but probably 70/30 this goes under and in my book that makes it a good bet to go UNDER.

I could be wrong though

[MCP313]

Originally Posted by dhunter

ludwick sucked last year and now he has no protection in the lineup. he'll probably be even worse this year. and i wouldn't say bartlett and hudson are upgrades. at least not offensively. they will still games on their pitching but not as many as last season. i think they will be very close to 76.

Yep. My thoughts exactly.

[rjb1816]

Originally Posted by dhunter

ludwick sucked last year and now he has no protection in the lineup. he'll probably be even worse this year. and i wouldn't say bartlett and hudson are upgrades. at least not offensively. they will still games on their pitching but not as many as last season. i think they will be very close to 76.

ludwick will be better this year i will guarantee it. Also how can you not say that those two are upgrades both offensively and defensively. The padres had cabrera and eckstein for a good majority of the season, then tejada and hairston mixed in. Both Bartlett and Hudson get on base more, steal more bases and are better top of the order hitters without question.

[rjb1816]

Originally Posted by MtrCtyPimp

Their hitting did get worse. Ludwick is garbage and Maybin & Bartlett arent very good either. Hudson is pretty fragile these days also. But their hitting wasnt their strength anyways when they won 90 games so if it is worse like I say thats not where the loss of games is coming from.

Its coming from the pitching. Garland is gone and good luck getting out of Latos this year what they got last year. I dont believe in the innings theory of a pitcher getting bumped up from year to year but this will be the ultimate test with Latos.

I think the biggest downfall will come from the pen late in games because what happened there last year was otherworldly.

Sure they won 90 games but even last season their metrics & run differential didnt support 90 wins so thats a fluke to assume that as a baseline anyways.

Factor in the bad offense and overachieving pitching from a year ago along with the extreme luck needed to win 90 last season as currently constructed and they will be extremely lucky to even sniff 500.

Im near certain this number goes up because people will think this is a good which they arent. Im not saying they are garbage but probably 70/30 this goes under and in my book that makes it a good bet to go UNDER.

I could be wrong though

Ludwick had a bad 2nd half of the year after the trade...his career numbers say otherwise. He will be an upgrade in the outfield and will outperform last year.

Hudson played 126 games last year and 149 the year before. His avg, obp, ops all better than anything the Padres put out at 2nd base last year. Bartlett had a bad year last season and even WITH that, he's an upgrade at shortstop over cabrera and tejada. This is not even really up for debate here

As for the pitching I agree there will be slight regression but you just expect Latos to get worse? Last time I checked aces in their young prime dont usually get worse as they learn how to pitch rather than just throw. The innings thing is a non issue. Also, their other young pitchers figure to get better including Richard, Stauffer, Leubke and Leblanc. Harang likely wont duplicate Garland's production but 14-12 isnt exactly world beating.

And like I said, the division isnt that great so their pitching will be able to carry them to close wins with a still elite bullpen. Who despite what you say have done this for 2 years in a row now...the pitchers are that good. GL what you play but I'm pounding the over again...this is a .500 team