Saturday's Play--Coming Right Back With Another "I Like It ALOT" Play !!

[Keith]

lost an "I Like It ALOT" play yesterday with the KC Royals. I should've known better--the Royals have ALWAYS been my "F U team" (the one team you can't win either with or against---everyone has one). Record is now 8-5 on the year for the "I Like It ALOT" plays. As you can see, I've only had 13 of them. Never back to back. Until today.

Saturday's "I LIke It ALOT" play is over 9 runs in the Astros/Brewers. Here's why:

The Brewers start lefty Manny Parra. Houston bats a very solid .278 against lefties. Parra is 6-8 on the year with a 6.33 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP and a .298 batting average against. On the road he is 4-5 with an ERA of 7.39 and a batting average against of .317. Since the All-Star break he is 3-0 but with a 5.04 ERA, a 1.760 WHIP and a .308 batting average against. Incredibly, those numbers are an improvement !! He is 0-1 against Houston this year with a 1.80 ERA. However, for his career before this season (2006-2008) his ERA against Houston was 5.47, his WHIP was 1.954 and his batting average against was .356. Wait. Saving the best for last. At Minute Maid (where he will pitch tonight) for his career, he is 1-1 with a 9.64 ERA, a 2.527 WHIP and a .452 batting average against. Wait. Go look at those numbers again. Holy shit.

Meanwhile the Astros start lefty Mike Hampton. On the year he is 7-8 with a 5.14 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP and a .293 batting average against. At home he is 4-3 with a 4.66 ERA and a .315 batting average against. This year against the Brewers his ERA is 5.40, his WHIP is 1.700 and his batting average against is .314. Check these numbers out. Since the All-Star break, Mikey boy has been getting raped like Jodie Foster on the pool table in The Accused. Seriously. He is 2-2 since the break, but his ERA is 7.59, his WHIP is 2.037 and his batting average against is .365. In 21.1 innings, he has allowed 31 hits and 12 walks. Holy shit---again.

Trends ? You want trends ? We don't need no stinkin' trends !! But we got 'em anyway ! The Astros are 14-8 to the over this year against lefties, while the Brewers are 17-8 to the over against lefties. The Astros are 7-2 to the over when playing against losing teams in the second half of the season, while the Brewers are 10-3 to the over when installed as a road fave of between -100 and -125 (they opend as a -125 fave although it has been bet down now to -106).

Saturday's "I Like It ALOT" AGAIN play is over 9 in the Astros/Brewers.

[vikesfan]

Bol today keith i believe this will cash.

[chumly77]

be carefull parra has been pitching very good and hampton is a pitcher that gives the brewers trouble not being negative hope it cashes

[twentyonekid]

gl keith,i like it also

[Keith]

Originally Posted by chumly77

be carefull parra has been pitching very good and hampton is a pitcher that gives the brewers trouble not being negative hope it cashes

I appreciate the caution, but Parra's numbers since the All-Star break have been pretty lousy. They only seem "very good" because his numbers before the break were absolutely pathetic.

[Keith]

thanks Kid and Vikes and everyone else.

[chumly77]

Last 3 Starts 6.16 ya you are right he did pitch well his last start at L.A but overall he stinks this should hit good luck

[RanPicks]

Gl Keith

[Keith]

Originally Posted by chumly77

Last 3 Starts 6.16 ya you are right he did pitch well his last start at L.A but overall he stinks this should hit good luck

thanks chumly.

Hampton ERA is even higher (8.40) for his last 3

[Kaysee]

bol today Keith

[Keith]

Originally Posted by RanPicks

Gl Keith

thanks buddy.

FWIW--I also really liked today (and it would've been my posted play but for the Hou/Milw over play) the under in the Indians/W Sox. It's at 9.5

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Kaysee

bol today Keith

thanks buddy

[Keith]

get it now fellas. The over 9 is -125 with my guy. Which tells me that, more than likely, by tonight, this total will be 9.5.

[barryg]

Staying with you, Keith...Hampton bites.
Bonus play -- over Yankees team total.

[loki8287]

Parra pitched 8 innings last time out vs Dodgers. I like it but only cause the Brewers are facing a lefty-Mike Hampton. They have alot of right handed bats.