Saturday's Play--It's A Day Game !!

Keith · #1 04-17-2010, 09:12 AM

well, after two straight losses, I got back on the winning track with the over in the Braves/Rockies last night. Now 6-2 for the season. A $100 bettor is +$460.

For Saturday, I'm going with the big growling home dog LA Dodgers at +150. Here's why:

First of all I know Lincecum is pitching. And he is awesome. No doubt. But did you know that his ERA is substantially higher (for him of course and not for mere mortals) both on the road and in the day ? Last year against the Dodgers he was 1-1 with a 4.56 ERA (that is astronomical for Lincecum). In the day last year he was 3-4 with a 3.42 ERA. At Dodger Stadium last year he was 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA and a .263 BAA. From 07-09, his numbers were also higher on the road (especially at Dodger Stadium) and in the day.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers go with Charlie Haeger. He is 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA. His WHIP is OK at 1.29. He has 13 strikeouts in 7 innings thus far. Whereas Lincecum is worse on the road and in the day, Haeger is MUCH better at home and during the day. Last year in the day his ERA was 3.27 and his BAA was .200. Last year at home in Dodger Stadium, his ERA was 1.80, his BAA was .154 and he allowed only 8 its in 15 innings pitched. From 2007-2009, he was 1-1 at Dodger Stadium with a 3.06 ERA and a .190 BAA.

Both of these teams are hitting the ball well right now, and both hit righties well (although LA hits them better than SF). You will not get rich playing against Tim Lincecum on a regular basis. That being said, the numbers speak for themselves. Today is the day to play against him.

Saturday's play is the LA Dodgers at +150