Saturday's Play !! (A Total, But Not What You Think)

[Keith]

first the re-cap. Won both my plays yesterday, hitting with the over in the Yanks/Sox and with the Cubs. Record now stands at 3-3 (-$30). Let's carry yesterday into today and hopefully through the weekend.

For Saturday, let me first start by saying I hate unders. I almost never play them in baseball. If I post 20 total plays, 19 will be overs. But for today, I found that 1 in 20. Saturday's play is under 8 runs in the A's/Twins. Here's why:

The A's start lefty Gio Gonzalez. The Twins are batting only .245 against lefties this year, and Gonzalez has become a good one. He is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA. That follows a spring training where he posted a 2.30 ERA, and had 29 strikeouts in 27.1 innings. While his career numbers against the Twins are not good, those are skewed by his early career struggles. Last year against the Twins he was 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA and a .200 BAA. At Target Field he was 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA and a .158 BAA. The Twins, who are batting only .245 over the past 7 days, are not going to hit Gio today.

Meanwhile, the Twins start Nick Blackburn. We made alot of $$$ last year playing against him. But I think he may have turned the corner. He is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA. That follows a spring where he had a 1.73 ERA, with 11 strikeouts and only 3 walks. It was like 2 different seasons for Blackburn last year. Before the All-Star break he was 7-7 with a 6.40 ERA and a .333 BAA. After the All-Star break he was 3-5 but with a 3.94 ERA and a .249 BAA. At Target last year Blackburn was 7-4 with a solid 3.71 ERA (by comparison, on the road last year his ERA was 7.57). The A's are batting a meager .241 over the past 7 days, and I think they are going to have trouble hitting Blackburn today.

Oh wait, how about some trends ? The Twins have gone under the total in 5 of their last 6, while the A's have gone under in 3 games in a row. Check this one out. Over the past 3 years (including last night) these two teams have played 10 times in Minnesota. 8 of 10 went under. 80% baby. I like that trend. Today will go under too.

Saturday's play is under 8 in the A's/Twins.

[RudyNYC27]

Like it, Keefer...stay HOT!

GL
Rudy

[barryg]

Keith....say it isn't so.....
This is like Sinatra doing a disco album...

[RudyNYC27]

Keefer, you move lines! 5dimes just moved the total to 7.5 (5 minutes after your post).

Guys, get it early!

Rudy

[McLovin23]

cash it keith

[Sweetleaf22]

Got on it last night,,,,,,,,BOL Keith

[Keith]

Originally Posted by rudynyc27

keefer, you move lines! 5dimes just moved the total to 7.5 (5 minutes after your post).

Guys, get it early!

Rudy

lol

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barryg

Keith....say it isn't so.....
This is like Sinatra doing a disco album...

YouTube - Frank Sinatra - Night & Day (Disco Mix) (Slayd5000)

[barryg]

Say it isn't so, Frank....
Okay, this is like Neil Diamond rapping...

[Keith]

thanks Barry, Roo-Dee, Leaf and McLovin. Appreciate it.

For the record, I got the under 8 at -125. No doubt this is headed to 7.5, so I would act fast fellas.

[Mendoza Line]

GL today, Keith!

[hoopmagic5]

Gl keith was on this early with ya!!!!...great job yesterday!!!!!!!!!!!

[Keith]

thanks ML and hoopmagic.

FWIW--I am also playing the Yankees this afternoon. The Yankees have teed off of Buchholz in the past and Buchholz is another one of those guys whose numbers are vastly different (in this case far worse) in the day than at night. I wasn't going to count it, but then I sort of thought that yesterday worked out well for me with a side and a total, so why mess with success ? So........

Officially adding the Yankees +130 as a play today as well.

[popeofpercentages]

I like your play ALOT! As we speak, I got the UNDER 8 for -115 at Bookmaker. The Pope

[BOBBYW]

Thanx & gl..