Saturday's Play--A Total I Absolutely LOVE !!!

Keith · #1 07-25-2009, 09:15 AM

been having a shitty week (actually closer to 2 weeks), but did get a push last night with the Cards/Phils under. A push felt like a win, so I feel like things have turned around. Of course bringing back Stevie Ray probably helped as well

So--I wasn't going to come with some huge monster play today. But as I was doing my homework this morning, I stumbled on this one--which I like as much, if not more, than any other play I've had this year. Let's get to it.

This afternoon, I absolutely love the over 9.5 runs in the Angels/Twins. Here's why:

The Twins start righty Nick Blackburn. He is 8-4 on the year with a 3.44 ERA. Good numbers, right ? Well, his WHIP is 1.333 and his batting average against is .277. On the road this year he is 3-4 with a 4.06 ERA and a .287 batting average against. In his last 5 starts, he has allowed 50 hits in only 35 innings. For the month of July he is 2-0, but with a 5.14 ERA, a .319 batting average against, and a WHIP of 1.476. Against the Angels this year, his ERA is 5.68 and his batting average against is .308. For his entire career he is 0-2 against the Angels with a 4.00 ERA. BUT, for his career at Angels Stadium, his ERA is 5.79, his batting average against is .455 and his WHIP is 2.857.

Meanwhile the Angels start righty Matt Palmer. He is 7-1 on the year, but with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. As a starter his ERA jumps to 5.10 and his batting average against is .263. During the day his ERA jumps to 5.55 and his batting average against is .287. This is a guy whose CAREER numbers show more than 1 hit allowed per inning pitched (91 hits in 90.1 innings) and more career walks than strikeouts !! (48 walks and only 47 strikeouts). I KNOW what those numbers tell me. The guy is extraordinarily lucky to be 7-1.

More stats & trends: the Angels are 15-4 to the over in July. Against righties, the Angels bat an AL-best .290. Over the past 7 days, the Angels are batting an AL-best .310. These 2 teams are 4-1-1 to the over this year. Over the past 3 years at Angels Stadium, the over is 7-4-1. The Twins are 7-4-1 to the over when playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

I ABSOLUTELY LOVE THIS PLAY !!

Saturday's huge "I LOVE It Alot" play is over 9.5 in the Angels/Twins.