Sunday's Play--We're Gonna Laffey All The Way To The Bank !!

[Keith]

first the re-cap. Won my "I Like It ALOT" play yesterday with the over in the Indians/Twins. That's the second play this week I won by 1/2 a run. I'll take it. Now 11-6 for the year on those plays.

For Sunday I like the Tribe +130 against the Twins. Here's why:

As you guys know, I've been playing against Nick Blackburn for awhile. On the year he is 8-7 with a 3.99 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP and a .292 batting average against. He has good numbers at home this year, as well as good numbers against the Tribe, but his recent performances have been pathetic. ERA over his last 3 outings is 6.43. For August he is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and as .382 batting average against. Since the All-Star break he is...get ready....0-3 with an 8.87 ERA and a "holy shit" batting average against of .407. In 23.1 innings since the All-Star break, he has allowed 44 hits and 5 walks with only 6 strikeouts. Wow. Thems some seriously BAD numbers.

Meanwhile, the Tribe start Aaron Laffey. He is 6-3 on the year with a 3.25 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and a .255 batting average against. His ERA over his last 3 outings is 3.00. Against the Twins this year he is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA and a .208 batting average against. For the month of August he is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA (that's right, I said 0.00) and a .218 batting average against. Since the All-Star break he is 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA.

And they are giving us +130 to boot !!! We're gonna Laffey all the way to the bank with this one.

Sunday's play is the Indians +130 from the Twins.

[plane-o-1]

Good Luck Keith!!! Like it.

[Lawnshark21]

Keith- All the brek down looks good but doesn't that line tell you something. i just think when all the numbers point one way and the line tells you something else something is fishy, this could be moe of a does not make sense play and go the other way. Any thoughts?

[ghoopin]

Good luck Keith.

[vikesfan]

Bol today keith when i looked at the games earlier cleve looked like a live dog right away to me.

[secondbase]

Gl Keith

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Lawnshark21

Keith- All the brek down looks good but doesn't that line tell you something. i just think when all the numbers point one way and the line tells you something else something is fishy, this could be moe of a does not make sense play and go the other way. Any thoughts?

well...the Twins at home, against the weak Indians, opened as a -160 fave. Would you have expected them to open at less than -150 or so (especially looking at Blackburn's overall record) ? The -160 was a bit high, but not extraordinary. It's been bet down to -142.

To me the fishiest line of the day is the White Sox as only a -123 fave, when they have a distinct pitching advantage.

[fat-freddie]

No big surprise when I saw Minny giving the pill to Blackbum today, knowing you fade this boy alot. Does seem like the big guy is running out of gas already !! This would be a sweet pay off at +130, lets cash them damn Indians to end the week man Good luck Keith,



Fats.............................................. ..................

[Lawnshark21]

Keith, appreciate the response I thought it would have been around 130 based on blackburn's struggles and Laffey is 1-0 this year against them and only gaive up 2 runs i think. I follow your pics and will roll with you again today but just wanted some input. Good Luck and let's cash in.

[GRSTAR]

Gl !!

[mickey]

Originally Posted by Lawnshark21

Keith- All the brek down looks good but doesn't that line tell you something. i just think when all the numbers point one way and the line tells you something else something is fishy, this could be moe of a does not make sense play and go the other way. Any thoughts?

Minnesota's pitching staff has a 6.10 ERA in the last 14 games, the biggest reason manager Ron Gardenhire's club is 4-10 in that stretch despite Mauer's best efforts.


The majors' top hitter, Mauer batted .220 during a 15-game stretch from July 11-29 to drop his average to .354, but he's enjoyed a big resurgence in the last two weeks. Mauer had three hits including a homer in Saturday's loss to bump his average since July 31 to .500 (29 for 58) and increase his season average to .378.

He's hitting .581 in eight games against the Indians in 2009, and is 5 for 10 with a homer in his career against Aaron Laffey (6-3, 3.25 ERA).

He's 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA in two home starts versus Minnesota this season, including an 8-1 win on Aug. 5 in which he allowed one unearned run over eight innings.



While Laffey is 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA against Minnesota at home, he's 0-1 with a 7.53 ERA in three career starts at the Metrodome. The left-hander is 4-0 with a 1.51 ERA overall this season at Progressive Field, as opposed to 2-3 with a 4.95 ERA on the road.

Minnesota's scheduled starter Nick Blackburn (8-7, 3.99), meanwhile, has struggled lately regardless of where he's pitched. The right-hander is 0-3 with an 8.87 ERA in his last five starts. He lasted a season-low 1 2-3 innings Tuesday against Kansas City, yielding six runs in a 14-6 loss.

Facing the Indians might be what Blackburn needs to get turned around. He's 4-1 with a 1.54 ERA in six career starts against Cleveland, and hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of those outings.

[seth25]

Originally Posted by Lawnshark21

Keith- All the brek down looks good but doesn't that line tell you something. i just think when all the numbers point one way and the line tells you something else something is fishy, this could be moe of a does not make sense play and go the other way. Any thoughts?

if its fishy the public would be all over cleveland,70% on minny as of now and line dropping. another reason its high is because laffey isn't as good on the road and blackburn has had success against clev,still value on cleveland imo.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Lawnshark21

Keith, appreciate the response I thought it would have been around 130 based on blackburn's struggles and Laffey is 1-0 this year against them and only gaive up 2 runs i think. I follow your pics and will roll with you again today but just wanted some input. Good Luck and let's cash in.

no problem shark. Let's get this one.

For the record, I got the Indians at +130

[Keith]

thanks guys. Good luck today.

Leaving to pick up the kids from the camp bus.

[acanto]

gl Keith tailing u!!! Go INDIANS!!