System Question

[Kaysee]

Hey guys, I'm still fairly new to betting and have a question on systems.
Instead of using trends and stuff to help with systems, would it not make sense to pick one team and bet against them until they lose, for instance game 1, risk 1.1 units to win 1, if they win bet to win 2 units plus what you lost already the next day, and keep doing that until they lose? I underdtand as some teams get hot you could need a fair size bank roll to do this, but isn't it a sure way of making money?
Maybe people already do this and I just not looking in the right places I don't know.
Thanks guys,
Kaysee

[Kaysee]

The way I see it, the longer the chase lasts, the more money will be made in the end, and everyone loses once in while?

[cisco]

I run 4-game chases. One of my chases lost 26.35 units yesterday betting against Colorado but still up 42.45 for the year. I am learning the Labourchere chase betting method.
(Don't ask, you have to scour the net)

If you are going to play a chase system consider how much you're willing to lose.

What I play for each unit is irrelevant. It is based on a percentage of your bankroll. Let's say a busted chase of four games loses you 30 units. How much of a percentage of your bankroll do you want to lose? 75%? 50%? 25%? That's up to you. Let's say you are willing to risk 25% of your bankroll as an example:

Bankroll: $1000
Bankroll willing to lose on a busted chase: $250

Take 250 and divide that by 30 which is the avg. units lost on a losing chase and you get $8.33 per unit. To be on the conservative side, use 40 units as a benchmark. 250/40= $6.25 per unit.

[PigSkinTerror13]

No.

In baseball, you tail teams that have won 3 games or more in a row. It is the best way to win $$$$$$.

Never, never, never, pick a team on a roll to lose.

[PigSkinTerror13]

PS. This system will never make money in the long run.

Tail hot teams, do not fade them.

[Kaysee]

Thanks
Pigskin, I wasn't talkin about fading hot teams, I was saying just pick any team and bet against them until they lose, doesn't matter what kind of streak they are on. For instance today if I bet against the redsox it would be risk 1.40 to win 1.00. If they lose, cool I'm up a unit. If they win, ok so tomoro I bet against them again (don't know the odds let's say it will be -130 for whoever there against), so now I bet 2.60 to win 2.00 units as well I bet enough to win back the 1.40 from what was lost the day before. So if they lose the second game of the streak, I'm up 2.00 units. Everyday this goes on I will have to bet more yes, but after 3 games (3rd game odds let's say are -150), bet 4.5 to win 3 plus bet enough to win the 4 units lost after the first two days and I'm up 3 units.
Everyday the chase goes on for you in win another unit.

[Earl]

Pigs is right if you are going to chase ride the hot teams. riding cold teams to get a win could cost you a lot of money. Look at the money people have lost chasing the Cards. A lot of money. when you are in a slump, you will be their until the team gets hot bats and the pitchers are able to yeild their opponents from scoring and don't for get the Bullpen a very important factor in baseball IMO. Randy Johnson when he was with the D-Backs a perfect example. the ability for a bullpen to close a game out is important. The Yankees are another team people have lost their ass on. good pitching means nothing if you don't have bullpen to close out the game. Just some valuable information for you.

[mvalentin]

learned a lot from chasing this year

- lower unit goals, if your normal bet is 110 dollars, i think you should be aiming to win 20 dollars
- realize that you will be in a situation where you are betting 100 dollars to win 20
- i chase trends up to three games and I have lost a couple and realize that for every lost chase you have to win about 6 to be in the positive
- its alright to bail at any time. Twice this year I've bailed out on chases and it saved me a ton
- baseball is good for chasing because there is more than enough info going 3 or even 4 games in. Like you have a good idea on the probable pitching matchup in the 4th game of your chase, so you can budget accordingly
- look at the series odds, if you are going to chase a team to win 1 game in a series


anyways i'm still torn whether or not to be selective of my chase or pick more. On my losses I think I just got greedy, but at the same time if I had just stuck to one or two and loss, thats a huge uphill climb to regain my $ from a lost chase

still i'd say that I've had a positive experience w/chasing in baseball, and a lot of people here are good at picking trends.