Thursday's Play--I Know I Said I'd Never Do This Again, But....

Keith · #1 06-11-2009, 06:40 AM

I just can't pass this one up. First the re-cap. Lost with the over in the Tigers/W. Sox yesterday, as Verlander pitched a gem. For Thursday I am coming right back with the same game, only this time I am playing the UNDER. That's right, the under. Now I know I always seem to lose posted under plays, but I am giving it another shot today. Here's why:

The Sox start Gavin Floyd. He is 4-5 on the year with a 5.35 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP and a .265 batting average against. Certainly nothing to write home about. But let's dig deeper. At home this year he is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA and a .237 batting average against. In his last 3 starts he has been awesome, allowing only 16 hits and 6 walks with 23 strikeouts in 21.2 innings for an ERA of 2.57. For his career against the Tigers he is a sparkling 5-0 with a 3.88 ERA.

The Tigers start Edwin Jackson. One of THE most underrated pitchers this year. He is 6-3 with a 2.16 ERA (2nd in the AL), a 0.98 WHIP (also 2nd in the AL), and a .208 batting average against. On the road this year he is 3-2 with a 1.31 ERA and a .201 batting average against. In his last 3 starts he has been lights out. In 23.1 innings, he has allowed only 13 hits and 3 walks, with 14 strikeouts and a 1.17 ERA. His career numbers against the Sox are lousy, but this guy is smokin' hot right now.

But there is more to this play. Let's look at some relevant stats. Over the past 7 days, the Sox are batting an AL-worst .212. The Tigers aren't much better, at .227. Against righty pitchers, the Sox bat only .247 while the Tigers are not much better at .254. At home, the Sox bat an AL-worst .218, while on the road, the Tigers bat an uninspiring .253.

Now the trends. Including last night's under, the Tigers are 24-34 to the under this year, and 12-19 to the under on the road. The White Sox are 24-36 to the under this year, and are 9-24 to the under at home. Of the 7 times these teams have played this year, 5 have gone under. Of the 5 times these teams have played at US Cellular, 4 have gone under.

The line opened at 9 under -115, and has moved to -120 and is now at -125. It would not surprise me to see this one drop to 8.5.

I know I have not had success posting under plays here at CM. Call me a glutton for punishment, but I can't pass this one up. This game WILL go under the total.

Thursday's play is under 9 in the Tigers/White Sox.

fat-freddie · #2 06-11-2009, 06:56 AM

Keith playing a under

Like the play man and after your info I'am all over this one man. Have a bud that plays only unders and this is his play for today also, lets cash it man

Fats.............................................. ..........

rmaciasl · #3 06-11-2009, 07:06 AM

is this a lot?

Keith · #4 06-11-2009, 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fat-freddie

Keith playing a under

Like the play man and after your info I'am all over this one man. Have a bud that plays only unders and this is his play for today also, lets cash it man

Fats.............................................. ..........

thanks Fats. Wanted to remind everyone that I stink on posted unders, but I still believe this is the best play on the board today.

I also kind of like the Mariners tonight, with Garrett Olson going against his former team.