Thursday's Play--I'm Undefeated Since.....

Keith · #1 05-07-2009, 06:45 AM

the switch to the Bull Durham theme. Of course, I am winless also. LOL. Made the switch yesterday and despite 25 hits, could only get a push on the over in the Mariners/Royals. No push today, as I like a side play.

For Thursday I like the Orioles at -115 to the Twins. Here's why:

First, the line movement tells me the O's are the right side. According to scoresandodds, the line opened at Twins -112, and is now O's -115. Somebody knows something !

The O's start rookie Brad Bergesen. He is 1-0 with a 5.17 ERA, a 1.66 WHIP and a .308 batting average against. In 15.2 innings he has allowed 20 hits and 6 walks. So why do I like him ? He had stellar numbers in the minors (he was the O's minor league pitcher of the year last year), and he pitched reasonably well in his last outing. I think that as he gets more comfortable, we'll see the solid pitcher that the O's are relying upon for the future.

Meanwhile the Twins start lefty Glen Perkins. He is 1-2 with a 3.34 ERA, a .248 batting average against and a 1.11 WHIP. Those are solid numbers. But wait--there's more. On the road this year he is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA and a .333 batting average against. In his last 2 outings he allowed 17 hits and 2 walks in 11 innings pitched. For his career against the O's he is 0-0, but with an ERA of 11.74 and a batting average against of .444. In 7.2 career innings against the O's, he has allowed 16 hits, 10 earned runs and 4 walks. In his career at Camden his ERA is an off-the-charts 14.73 with a batting average against of .412.

The Twins are 4-7 on the road this year. I think it will be 4-8 after tonight.

Thursday's play is the Orioles -115 to the Twins.