Thursday's Play--It's NOT An Under !!

[Keith]

well, I lost my under play yesterday by 14 runs. Glad I got my obligatory under play out of the way early this year. I never win unders in baseball. Each year I forget that fact. Still in my spring training here as the stats I look at round into shape. Won't get serious until later this month.

For Thursday I do like the over 9 runs in the Mariners/Twins. Here's why:

The Mariners start Jarrod Washburn. Remember when he was a good pitcher with the Angels ? So do I. But that's not this guy. He hasn't had a winning record for several years now (he was a miserable 5-14 last year with an ERA of 4.69). In his career against the Twins he is 6-6. This spring he was pathetic. He had a 6.60 ERA, allowing 51 hits and 7 walks in 30 innings. The Twins batted .291 this spring and will batter Washburn this afternoon.

The Twins start Glen Perkins. In his career he is 12-4, and he is 2-0 against the M's. BUT, his career ERA against the M's is 6.05. He had a seemingly good spring, with a 2.03 ERA, but he allowed 32 hits and 6 walks in 31 innings. The Mariners batted .312 as a team this spring, and I think they'll get their's today.

A few strong trends here as well. 15 of the 20 times these teams have played over the past 3 years the game has gone over the total. Of the 8 games played in Minnesota over the past 3 years, 7 have gone over. I like those trends.

Thursday's play is over 9 in the Mariners/Twins.

[metallica]

good luck Keith

[pittviper]

glad to see you on it as well.. .. lets cash bud

hard to catch the ball in minnesota.. ;)

[Keith]

Originally Posted by metallica

good luck Keith

thanks metallica. Good to see you again. Like old times

[Keith]

Originally Posted by pittviper

glad to see you on it as well.. .. lets cash bud

hard to catch the ball in minnesota.. ;)

thanks PV--did not realize you were on this as well. Niiiiice.

[vikesfan]

Bol Today Keith

[Keith]

Originally Posted by vikesfan

Bol Today Keith

thanks Vikes.

[RanPicks]

GL Buddy

[RudyNYC27]

GL, Keith...number seems low to RUDY.

RUDY

[borg]

i'm with ya on that OVER

actually i'm liking a few games to go OVER this afternoon

[Keith]

Originally Posted by RudyNYC27

GL, Keith...number seems low to RUDY.

RUDY

Keith is curious why you say that. Perkins pitched well last year and had a low ERA this spring. Keith thought 9 was the right number here.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by borg-001

i'm with ya on that OVER

actually i'm liking a few games to go OVER this afternoon

thanks borg

[RudyNYC27]

Originally Posted by Keith

Keith is curious why you say that. Perkins pitched well last year and had a low ERA this spring. Keith thought 9 was the right number here.

Mariners are hitting...Twins bats have come alive...as Keith states, Perkins hashigh lifetime ERA agst Mariners...Washburn is washed up...fyi - Morneau historically tortures Washburn!!!

RUDY

[Keith]

Originally Posted by RudyNYC27

Mariners are hitting...Twins bats have come alive...as Keith states, Perkins hashigh lifetime ERA agst Mariners...Washburn is washed up...fyi - Morneau historically tortures Washburn!!!

RUDY

those are all reasons why keith is playing the under. Still don't see though how much higher you thought this line should be.

For the record, I got the over 9 at even.

[jonny delta]

GL today Otis - make that $