Tuesday's Play--This Is The Big One !!!

Keith · #1 08-11-2009, 06:31 AM

first the re-cap. Won with the Cardinals last night to get the week off to a good start. A few weeks ago I had a total play which I said at the time was my biggest play of the year (it was an easy winner). Well, let's just say I like this one even more. This will be my biggest "I Like It ALOT" play of the year thus far.

Let's get to it. For Tuesday, my monster huge play is on over 9.5 runs in the Royals/Twins. Here's why:

First of all, the line opened at 9 and has steamed its way up to 9.5. A good sign. The Roayls start Kyle Davies. He pitches OK in Triple A, but in the bigs he sucks. For the year he is 3-8 with a 6.37 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP and a .283 batting average against. In his last 3 outings in the bigs (split up by a 6 week stint in the minors), he went a combined 11.3 innings, allowing 19 hits and 8 walks, for an off-the charts WHIP of 2.432 and a "holy shit" ERA of 14.73. At night this year he is 2-6 with a .300 batting average against and an ERA of 8.60. For his career at the Metrodome, he is 2-2 with an ERA of 5.31 and a batting average against of "only" .275.

Meanwhile, the Twins start Nick Blackburn. He is not the pitcher he was earlier this season. For the year he is 8-6 with a 3.79 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP and a .287 batting average against. His ERA in his last 3 starts is 6.75. Since the All-Star break he has allowed 38 hits in 21.2 innings, with a batting average against of .392. Against KC this year he is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA but with a batting average against of .345. He has good numbers at home, but even there his batting average against is .281. At night this year his ERA is 5.01 and his batting average against is .338.

But wait--there's more to this play than just 2 mediocre pitchers. You want stats ? OK--check these out. Over the past 7 days, the Twins are batting an AL-best .327. Guess who is 2nd at .325 ?? That's right, the Royals.

KC is 7-2 to the over in August and in fact they've had 7 overs in a row. The Twins are 6-1 to the over in August, and they are 7-1-1 to the over for their last 9. How about a nice trend for us ? These teams have played 3 times this year at the Metrodome. All 3 have gone over the total.

I can't call this a GOY or Total of the Year because that is the kiss of death. But like I said earlier--this one is my Rose Bowl ("the Granddaddy of 'em all !!")

Tuesday's HUGE monster play is over 9.5 runs in the Royals/Twins.

secondbase · #2 08-11-2009, 06:36 AM

Hit it Keith
good Luck

Keith · #3 08-11-2009, 06:43 AM

thanks 2b.

fat-freddie · #4 08-11-2009, 07:22 AM

This must be the "ONE" I've been waiting on man ? Thanks for the info, good stuff

Lets get on it big time pal !!!!! Good luck Keith

Fats.............................................. ............

plane-o-1 · #5 08-11-2009, 07:27 AM

Good Luck Keith on the 'HUGE monster play'!!! Winner coming up.

Keith · #6 08-11-2009, 07:30 AM

thanks Fats and plane-O.

I really do love this play.

vikesfan · #7 08-11-2009, 07:56 AM

Good luck keith lots of runs for sure.

Kaysee · #8 08-11-2009, 08:07 AM

BoL today Keith, with ya as always...
One concern, why would the total only be set at 9 to start n hell only 9.5 now with all that info given, do they know something we don't?

Keith · #9 08-11-2009, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kaysee

BoL today Keith, with ya as always...
One concern, why would the total only be set at 9 to start n hell only 9.5 now with all that info given, do they know something we don't?

Blackburn's numbers still appear to be pretty decent. IMHO, that's why.