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Old 08-04-2009, 03:10 PM
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Boston at Tampa Bay

I know the Red Sox have not lost since acquiring Victor Martinez but with Bay questionable tonight that should even things out and even if he starts I am fine as Garza has dominated the Red Sox for quite some time now while the opposite is true for Jon Lester against the Rays.

All you need to know here really is the Rays are dominant at home on their "turf" and the Red Sox have struggled whether it be against the Blue Jays, Twins, or Rays the Red Sox and Lester have not been the same as Boston is 12-27 in their last 39 turf games. While Lester is 0-7 last 7 starts on Turf. Red Sox are also 1-6 in his last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. More on Lester as he has not been the same pitcher on the road with a 4.52 ERA while a 3.33 ERA at home. Lester who has two starts against the Rays this year has not pitched well and both games were at home he has gone 9.1 innings given up 13ER. The Rays at home are 9-3 in their last 12 home starts vs. LHP. Rays own a collective .313 average vs. Lester. Including Crawford .316, Bartlet .500, Longoria 5-12, Pena 6-22 with 3HR. Boston has hit no doubt about it, but what evens that out is what their bullpen showed in Baltimore. The Rays are hot right now and I think they will continue here at home.

More on Garza with the exception of Ellsbury who is 9-23 .391avg everyone else has struggled vs. Garza. Boston has a collective .213 avg against him. He's got 3 starts vs. Boston this year with a 1.69 ERA and a 2-0 record. Garza had 6 starts vs. the Red Sox last year and the Rays won 5 of 6 and he had a 3.34 ERA. May I also note that Garza is on 5 days rest while Lester on just 4. The Rays are actually 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. Boston. As hot as Boston's bats have been they won't continue tonight. Although I can see Garza going 7 or 8 giving up 3 or 4 I see the Rays putting up at least 5 here at home on the turf.

TAMPA BAY

Florida at Washington

Going with the Marlins here I just got word with the lineups that Hanley Ramirez will play and Ryan Zimmermann will be out and it is what made this a play for me! Josh Johnson and the Marlins coming off a day of rest are 7-0 in their last 7 starts with Johnson on the mound against the Nationals. Johnson actually off 5 days rest should be ready to go. Marlins have won 37 of the last 51 meetings with the Marlins including 10 in a row where they have won 9 of 10 by more than 1 run.

Nats send J.D. Martin who has not been impressive in 2 starts giving up 5ER in each. Johnson is 25-5 in Johnson's last 30 following a quality start in his last start. Marlins also 10-2 in their last 12 vs. a losing team and the Marlins have won all three meetings with Johnson on the mound against the Nationals this year by more than 1 run. Actually the Nationals have lost 78% of their home game losses by more than 1 run. I feel confident to say that if the Marlins win this game and I believe they will it will be by more than one run!
The Marlins are 5-1 in their last six as a road favorite and 6-1 in their last seven away from home. Josh Johnson and the Fish are 6-1 in his last seven as a road favorite. They are 21-6 in his last 27 overall and he has owned the Nats in his career. For the Nats, they are 0-7 in their last seven games versus Johnson and are a whopping 14-43 in their last 57 games as an underdog of +151 to +200.

FISH RL

LA Angels at Chicago W/S

The Angels are rolling right now, sweeping the Twins over the weekend up in Minnesota and now heading to Chicago on fire. They are 18-6 in their last 24 games as a road favorite and are 38-15 in their last 53 overall. They are 4-0 in Lackey's last four outings and are 14-3 in Lackeys last 17 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Contreras has really struggled for Chicago and I hope he does again tonight.
To understand just how good Los Angeles has been playing, consider on June 12, they were 29-29 on the season. Since then, L.A. is 34-11, having picked up +21.65 units of profit in just over seven weeks. Scioscia’s squad leads the major’s in running from first to third and this dizzying pace has them at 27-12 in games decided by four or more runs. They are 14-7 (+14.6) as underdogs and one game behind Philadelphia for the best road record (31-20) in baseball, having won 15 of last 18 as visitors.

Consider this mallers: right now the Angels are stuffing bankrolls. Parlay wagers on them with the OVER mean serious return on investment, with Los Angeles 61-37-5 OVER (No.1). Totals players can’t believe their great fortune with L.A. on 13-0 OVER run. Since July 1, the Angels and OVER has won on parlays 18 times.

The best over team in the league lately has been LAA as they have gone over the total in 10 straight games. In fact they have gone over total in 22 of last 28 games! Lackey usually goes 7 inning and gives up 2-3 runs. But the bullpen is where many of the runs have been given up by LAA. Contreras on the other hand gives up almost 1 run per inning and against the hottest hitting team in the league he might even give up more.

It’s not always fun to follow the crowd and do what everyone else is doing, nevertheless, when money is ripe to be taken, playing these Angels and the total is heavenly.

LA ANGELS & "OVER" 9
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Last edited by mickey; 08-04-2009 at 03:20 PM.
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  #2  
Old 08-04-2009, 03:17 PM
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all over the fish and angels... sweep em up mickey
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Old 08-04-2009, 03:43 PM
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good luck wiz
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Old 08-04-2009, 03:56 PM
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Good luck mickey!
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Old 08-04-2009, 04:22 PM
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Good Luck mickey.
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Old 08-04-2009, 04:46 PM
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Good Luck mickey!!!
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Old 08-04-2009, 04:53 PM
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good luck wiz!
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