Wiz's "Best Bet" total & a lean total play

mickey · #1 08-30-2009, 11:22 AM

Colorado at San Fransisco

San Francisco is 24-19 playing matinees and will have Matt Cain (12-4, 2.39) taking the ball. It easy to be judgmental and see Cain hasn’t won a game since July 24, yet he has 2.72 ERA in that span and allowed 36 hits in 46 1/3 innings, with 4-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Giants are raising cane on opponents at home when Cain pitches with 11-2 record and they are 13-4 when favored. Matt Cain is 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA in 13 home starts this year, with San Fran winning 11 of those games.

Cain, who has a 2.01 ERA in his last three starts despite not registering a decision, is 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA in front of the home fans this season. Cain has been dominant in two victories over Colorado this season, allowing a combined one run in 13 innings. With Cain on the hill, San Francisco is on runs of 16-5 at home, 9-1 as a home chalk, 11-3 when he’s a favorite and 5-0 against the N.L. West.

The Rockies will use Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.43) who pitches dramatically better away from Coors Field. Hammel is 6-4 on the road with 2.88 ERA, thought the team is .500 (6-6). Colorado is 25-18 in day ball and un-Rockies like 36-30 coming into the series on the road.

Hammel has seen the Giants twice this season but didn’t get any offensive support in either outing. He blanked San Francisco for six innings on May 3 but the Rockies lost 1-0, then he gave up three runs in six innings on July 24 in a 3-1 Colorado loss. With Hammel on the hill, the Rockies are on runs of 13-6 overall and 4-0 on Sundays, but just 1-4 when he’s a road ‘dog.

over/under totals:

When Hammel pitches, the Rockies are on “under” runs of 7-1-1 in the third game of a series and 4-0 against N.L. West teams, while as a team, Colorado has stayed under the total in four of five overall, four of five on the road, six of seven against right-handed starters and four of five against N.L. West teams. The Giants’ are on “under” streaks of 7-2 with Cain starting, 6-1 when he’s a favorite and 6-1 against winning teams, while as a team San Francisco has stayed under the total in 15 of 21 as a favorite and five of six on Sundays.

analysis:

As if things aren’t hard enough for San Fran, the status of their top two hitters Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina is day to day for this series. The Giants could certainly use them for the final game of the series.The line opened at -150 & is currently at -127 (a dramatic drop).

Wiz's play: Under the posted total 7.5 (Best Bet)

Chicago W/S at NY Yankees

On the mound for the White Sox is veteran Freddy Garcia. He has made only two starts this season and has gone 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA. Clearly not enough outings to state situational stats for this season. However, the concern I would have if I am manager Ozzie Guillen is that Freddy has not thrown nearly as hard as he used to so far this year and the lefty power hitter for the Yanks will look to tee off on his fastball. I expect Chicago to touch up Joba today but whether or not they’ll score enough will be up to Garcia.

On the hill for the Bronx Bombers is JC. On the season Joba is 8-4 with a 4.34 ERA. At Yankee Stadium Chamberlain has been poor going 3-3 with a 5.35 ERA in 14 starts. This will be his first start against the White Sox this season. We all saw how the extra rest hurt Joba’s mechanics and rhythm. Look for much of the similar today as he will get touched up early and then go into his usual childish antics. However, the bats behind him are so dominant he may just be taken off the hook yet again.

The Over is 4-2 in the last 6 times the two teams have met. You have a veteran pitcher making his third start of the season against a killer offense and a kid pitcher coming off a terrible start pitching in his home stadium where his ERA is 5.35. The OVER here is a great play & I expect it to clear 10 runs before the later stages of the game.

Wiz's play: Over the posted total 10