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  #1  
Old 08-21-2017, 12:14 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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2017 NCAAF Season Over/Under plays

2016 Recap: Bad news out of the way first - got my azz kicked in bowls,
0-4 in investment plays, 6-5 in TV action. More on that when I do my 2017 Bowl thread, don't want extraneous bad ju-ju messing with my regular season plays here.

Had a solid regular season, finished 23-15 in single games, plus hit the one teaser I posted, so overall 24-15, +7.8. Also hit the only NFL play I posted (I'm not a big NFL guy, prefer college, but I have a strong situational play that I follow in NFL, rarely comes up.) So, 25-15 in all plays posted, 62%.

Same method this year.
I handicap every game, isolate a few where the Ov/Un trend seems heavy in one direction and I expect will swing back the other way, then I post all of those spots and pick and choose which ones I'll play, along with reasoning, thoughts and "when to buy" notes.

Example, Hawaii vs U Mass (see below.) Stats say heavy lean to Over for both teams. I record/post as an Under because no trend lasts forever and I think this is a spot where it starts to revert back.

YES, I KNOW it's a lot of info. When I look at other posts I see stuff like:
Clemson -10
And that's it; no reason, no theory, no analysis. For some viewers, that's all they want, and that's okay, to each his own. But if I have no play on a game, and I'm looking for opinions, I like to see write ups, so that's what I provide in my posts. Viewers can either agree, and play on if they wish, or disagree and fade, but I try to give them something to consider either way.

Week one and there a lot of spots to choose from:

Sat, Aug 26
Haw/U Mass Un 64'

Thur, Aug 31
Buf/Minn Ov
N Mex St/Az St Un

Fri, Sept 1
Navy/Fla Atl Un

Sat, Sept 2
Hou/Tex SA Ov
Ark St/Neb Ov
BYU/LSU Ov
Troy/Boise St Ov

Sun, Sept 3
W Virg/V Tech Un

Last year these spots were Ov 16-26, Un 22-20. Most years, Unders win (though lousy last year) and Overs hit around .500 (though they were especially lousy LY.) What I look to do is find which games to buy within all those spots.

The opening play this year is on Hawaii game, not sure what to do there.
As I stated, Unders are usually strong in these spots, but when Hawaii is bad, and they usually are, they can give up most of the # in this spot, 64, all by themselves. (As I post this, the board is lighting up as Bookmaker is posting their totals, Haw game at 63; 64' at 5D.)
LY saw them give up scores of 51, 63, 55, 52 & 52.
Eight of their 14 games went Over 64.
And their game vs this week's opponent, U Mass, saw 86 pts scored.
U Mass scores tend to be not so high scoring, but then again they don't get Hawaii every week.
No need to make a decision and pull the trigger now, will post if I buy.

Good luck to all the Mall this football season.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 08-21-2017 at 12:24 PM.
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Old 08-21-2017, 01:56 PM
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Old 08-25-2017, 02:41 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Thank you, Mr. Bruce, luck to you also.

Below, updated spots with lines (opening and current.)

Also, though I haven't bought them yet (line still moving in my favor) I have made my first two buy decisions, also below.

Sat, Aug 26
Haw/U Mass Un 64'/61'

Thur, Aug 31
Buf/Minn Ov 53/50
N Mex St/Az St Un 67/70'

Fri, Sept 1
Navy/Fla Atl Un 65/71

Sat, Sept 2
Hou/Tex SA Ov 54'/51'
Ark St/Neb Ov 48/47
BYU/LSU Ov 44'/47'
Troy/Boise St Ov57/63

Sun, Sept 3
W Virg/V Tech Un 54'/55/53

I will buy N Mex St/Az St Un and Navy/Fla Atl Un.
Looking at LY's notes I see strong win % #'s for weekday spots that called for an Under (post #35 LY),
as well as spots where the line went higher.
Both of these games are in both of those categories so I'll buy them to see if it continues this year.
NOT buying yet as both #'s are climbing. I keep a window open on my screen with odds showing, and I check throughout the day in case buy backs start to reverse the line moves. Should get 70' and 71 at worst case, may get higher #'s if they keep climbing.

Leaning Over on the Haw/Mass game, fading the Un spot noted in this weeks plays. Will post if I buy.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 08-25-2017 at 02:50 PM.
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Old 08-25-2017, 07:04 PM
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Navy dropped, and too quickly to buy and post, straight from 71' to 69 at all but one house.
May be a buy back from middle players.
I bought it at Un 69.
Also bought N Mex St/Az St Un 71.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 08-25-2017 at 07:09 PM.
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Old 08-26-2017, 10:38 AM
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Good to see you back posting plays with detailed analysis. BOL this year Mr Nascar!
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Old 08-26-2017, 05:05 PM
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Quaker, good to see you, thanks for the post, and good luck this season. You too, Dale City.

Have to have a play first day of the season so I'm jumping in with two. Waiting on Hawaii game was the right move if you like the Over as I do, down to 60 now. Bought that one.

Also, I remember well the Australia game from last year (was stuck in a hotel room, podunk town, was surprised the TV even had ESPN; bet the Over for an easy win).
I like the Over in this one too, but I don't like that it's a very popular pick with the scamdicappers over in The Island of Lost Souls section.
Bought first half Ov 27 -120. Gonna need Stanford to score most if not all of that # all by themselves. Hopefully, the players get the same energy from the Aussie crowd, and same game pace as last year.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 08-26-2017 at 05:15 PM.
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Old 08-31-2017, 11:21 AM
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Recap: Hit both buys, Haw/U Mass Ov and Stanford/Rice 1st half Ov.

Early buys still pending (from post #4 above):
N Mex St/Az St Un 71
Navy/Fla Atl Un 69

Did a good job of grabbing N Mex at 71, dropped to 70 & 69' today.
Missed the best #, 71, on Navy but it also dropped, 68 & 67' today, so not bad.

May add another spot or two, looking hard at that Boise game.
Will post if I buy anything.

I'll keep my record divided into types of plays, to see if I can gain any edges to be used for an advantage later in the season.
Record 2-0
Spot plays (taken from the Ov/Un's I post each week) 1-0
Other picks 1-0
Halftime adjustments: 0-0

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 08-31-2017 at 11:29 AM.
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Old 09-05-2017, 04:09 PM
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Recap: Won both buys, New Mex St/Az St & Navy/Fla Atl.

Got lucky in Navy game, was on a pace for an Over when they had multiple long delays due to lightening.
I was actually rooting for a suspension, which would have been a "no bet", but Kiffin, ever the jackass, refused to suspend the game.
As Navy's twitter account smartly said: "Both teams needed to agree to cut the game short, and Kiffin elected not to let a 23-point deficit and an ominous overnight forecast keep him from playing the full 60 minutes of his home opener, no matter how petty it might have looked to everyone else involved."

Ended up being glad he held out as the long delay and late restart (approx 1 am) led to tired players and a low scoring 4th quarter that got the win for the Under.

This week's Ov/Un spots:

Pitt/Penn St Un 67/68
Tulane/Navy Un 54'/48'
Tx SA/Baylor Ov 60'/58'
UNLV/Idaho Un 67/71
N'West/Duke Ov 53/55
E Car/W Virg Ov 59'/65
Buf/Army Ov 49
Mia/Ark St Ov 54'/55'

Ov/Un plays went 3-5 last week. Overs 1-3, Un 2-2.
So, per norm, Unders OK, Overs good fade material.

* Problem: Doing this week's numbers I see W Virg is in a play again.
Teams in B2B weeks is not unusual, happens sometimes, BUT W Virg is in an Over this week, while they were supposed to be an Under last week.
Based on how I handicap, that can't be right.
I looked at three seasons and a couple hundred games in my log book and when a team appears back to back it is always the same, or even in a 2 or 3 week period, it is always both Ov, or both Un.

I cannot reproduce last week's numbers, so I cannot see if I charted it incorrectly as an Un when it should have called for an Over. But I'm positive I did. I am not going to change it to a win for the Ov, I don't feel that's right, I think the best thing to do is to edit it from the charts.
IF THESE NUMBERS ARE NOT ACCURATE THEY ARE WORTHLESS!
Fudging a record helps no one (except insecure, attention-starved lifeless gits.)
So, week one Ov/Un's goes in as 3-4; Ov 1-3, Un 2-1.

Record on buys: 4-0
Spot plays (taken from the Ov/Un's I post each week) 3-0
Other picks 1-0
Halftime adjustments: 0-0

I'll be back with any buys I make.
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Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-05-2017 at 04:19 PM.
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  #9  
Old 09-09-2017, 11:05 AM
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Been watching the line on a few games, like a couple spots today but was hoping to pick up another point or two. Bought N'Western/Duke Un 54'.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-09-2017 at 11:06 AM.
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Old 09-09-2017, 03:15 PM
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Backdoored with two minutes left in Duke. Ugh.
Adding Pitt/Penn St Over 63' and Navy Over 48'.
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Old 09-11-2017, 05:25 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: dropped both late plays too, record on buys 4-3 now.

For newbies: SPORTS BETTING 101 - LUCK
Luck is real, both good and bad.
And it tends to run in streaks.
And real life carries over into betting. So, for example, hypothetical, if your wife leaves you, and your dog dies, and you get laid off from work, it's probably NOT a good day to toss a hundred on Team A to beat Team B.

For example, real life: Saturday morning errands timed just right to get me home for kickoff of the morning games.
I go to C.Mall to share Army/Buff game Under. I look at my card and switch to N'West game Under.
As I do it, I hear the voice in my head "Always stick with the original answer to a quiz/test; don't change it."
I put in N'West spot anyway.
After my last errand I get in my car, and . . . it won't start.
By the time I get home it's 4th quarter, just enough time to watch N'West go Over.
I check Army - an easy Under.
I should take the day off, but I like the Navy spot, I buy it, and Penn St, and go to 0-3 for the day.
How many rules did I break:
Changed a pick at the last minute.
Ignored the obvious bad luck day I was having after the car, and getting backdoor'd with 2 minutes left in N'western, and bought 2 more games.
I know better. But . . .

Last week Ov/Un's went 5-2 (bad week to fade as I did, especially Unders which are usually strong, and went 3-0 last week.)
Season record:8-7, Ov 3-5, Un 5-2.

This weeks spots:
Az/Utep Un 61
U Conn/Virg Ov 51/49
App St/Tex St Ov 47
Coast Car/UAB Un 59
Mid Tn St/Minn Un 53
G Tech/Cen Fla - CANCELLED

I grabbed Az/UTEP Un 61
Reason? Post #35 in last year's Ov/Un thread and my 2nd post in this thread.

Will update if I buy any others.
Good luck to the Mallers this week.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-11-2017 at 05:34 PM.
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  #12  
Old 09-12-2017, 05:09 PM
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I watched Clemson last week, was impressed in all facets, only a few -3 left, starting to get a price hung on and expect it to be higher come game day. Love that Clemson D, and expect the O to have some fun this week facing a Louisville D that gives up a lot of yards, especially in the air. That may be suspect due to game situation, but still, 335 per is a lot.
I picked up Clemson -3 as my second buy of the week.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-12-2017 at 05:17 PM.
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Old 09-16-2017, 10:05 AM
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Recap: Weekday Unders from the Ov/Un plays I list here were on an 11-2 run, had Under 61 last night, got a scoreless first quarter.
Looking good, right?
WRONG!!!
They score 44 in the second quarter.
Fumbles, interceptions, punts returned for TD's, lions and tigers and bears oh my. I haven't cursed at my TV that much in years.
Sitting at .500 now, 4-4, with Clemson game open.

Buying Coastal Car/UAB Ov 52.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-16-2017 at 10:07 AM.
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Old 09-16-2017, 03:27 PM
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Coastal Cal game could go either way, still open, third quarter.
Mid Ten St notice just came out, QB Stockstill out, board lit up as total dropping all over. Was at 47, but I waited to see if I could get a little more off, went other way to 48.
I bought it Over.
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Old 09-18-2017, 02:11 PM
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Recap: After dropping the Friday night Under, hit 2 of 3 on Saturday.

The Ov/Un spots went 2-2-1.
I got a Win fading the Coastal Car/UAB Un spot and going Ov, but after struggling with the decision on how to grade it I'm counting it as a Push for the Ov/Un record.
I could count it as a loss, because I faded it at 52 and won when it landed 53. I could count it as a win, because it opened at 58/59, went higher, dropped back to 54/53, stayed there most of the week, then dropped on game day; by game time it was 52/52'.

I USE THESE RECORDS TO BASE BUYS ON. It doesn't help me if the #'s aren't accurate. If I had not bet the game Over and won I would most likely count it as a Win for the Under, based on line history. But I don't feel right counting it as a W when I faded it and won. I think marking it a Push is the correct thing to do. Any alternate opinions welcome.

Season records:

Ov/Un spots 10-9; Ov 4-6, Un 6-3

My buys/recommendations: 6-5.
Ov/Un spots 4-5
Other plays 2-0
Halftime adjustments: 0-0

This week's Ov/Un spots:
UAB/N Tex Un
U Mass/Ten Un
Mich/Purdue Un
Fla/Kent Ov

Slim pickens. Would have liked to see a few more Overs to possibly fade. And on that note, when there are two Overs, and the early game goes Over, the math (based on the record on Overs in these spots for the past decade or so) says fade the later game and play Under, as in App St/Tx St this weekend; a reminder for future reference.)

For Newbies: SPORTS BETTING 101 - The good D vs good O situation.
We saw it this weekend (Clem vs Louisville) and you will see it again - the match up between a team with an exceptional defense vs a team with an exceptional offense. Remember, in all sports:
1 - NOTHING is 100%, but in these situations lean to the better D
2 - If the team with the good O is one dimensional, based around one superstar, take a hard look at the team with the really good D.
3 - If the team with the really good offense has a lousy defense, bet the team with the exceptional defense.

The expression "A good defense always beats a good offense" exists for a reason. Again, NOTHING is 100%, but when you add to the fact that the exceptional offense is for the most part one dimensional, the great D will game plan around stopping him. And if the good O has a lousy D, their opponent can win the time of possession battle and minimize their opponents great offense (Clem 35:32 vs Louis 24:28.)

I'll be back if I make any buys.
Good luck with your plays this week.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-18-2017 at 02:19 PM.
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Old 09-23-2017, 10:52 AM
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Record 6-5 to start the day.
Correction on the Ov/Un spots.
They're 10-8, Ov 4-6, Un 6-2 (had Under wrong at 6-3 miscalculating for W Virg/V Tech, see post #8.)

Four spots to choose from today (post # 15.)

I like the Tenn spot Un but I blew it on when-to-buy. Could have had 64 earlier this week, then 63. It dropped to 61 before I decided to buy, waited, hoping it would rise again but no such luck. All the way down to 58 now, no way I'm buying a game I lost 6 points on. Hope somebody who follows/tracks these Un spots grabbed it at the better #, a reluctant pass for me on this one.

Next up Mich/Purdue Un, also dropped 4 pts, pass.

May fade the Fla Over. Watching the number there.

Bought the UAB spot Un 61'.
Also, I don't often lay a big # but I think Vandy is getting too much respect today. The rare times in recent years that 'Bama has had trouble is when they face team's with strong offenses; Vandy is far from that. I think it's one of those Roll Tide, Roll days but not fond of laying 18' so I'm going to add a little teaser fun to the mix this season. I bought a 6 pt ties reduce two teamer at 5dimes, Alabama -12' and one spot open for even $.

Will post any halftime spots or additional buys later.

Good Luck with your plays today.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-23-2017 at 11:01 AM.
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Old 09-23-2017, 08:14 PM
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UAB can't stop N Tex, laying the 6 second half.
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Old 09-25-2017, 12:58 PM
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soccer

Recap: Ov/Un spots went 3-1 last week, and the only one I bet was . . .
Chased second half, lost that one too, so for the first time this season I dip under .500 at 6-7.
Hit the open ended teaz with 'Bama though it wasn't necessary, now have the option to take 6 pts off any game and get even $ rather than -110 this week, or any week this season. Will most likely use it on an NFL spot (where lines are usually tighter) or an Under spot in this thread, as they are usually strong (ANYBODY get in on Unders this week? Hope you played them more wisely than I did as 2 of 3 won.)

This weeks Ov/Un spots:
Mia/Duke Ov
Coastal Car/UL Monroe Un
Hou/Temple Ov
Az St/Stan Un
Akron/B Green Ov

These are 13-9 now, Ov 5-6, Un 8-3.

My buys/recommendations: 6-7.
Ov/Un spots 4-6
Other plays 2-0
Halftime adjustments: 0-1

Unders are 8-3 yet I'm a game below .500, playing too tight, going to open it up a bit this week. Will be back with buys.

For newbies: SPORTS BETTING 101 - THE BUY BACK
For newbies, and me, too. I missed a win when I stayed off U Mass because the line dropped 6 points from the best # available during the week. I know better than to miss out on these, that's why I track and post updates during the week. Last week there was no midweek update, I didn't even get back in to post the lines when they came out like I usually do. It was a busy week, business and social for me, but no excuse - I blew an opportunity on a game I liked. Here's the buy back lesson/example:

U Mass/Tenn opened at 57, then it began to climb.
Was easily available at 63' during the week, there was even a 64 or two.
That's a TD differential from the opener. Normally, not always but usually, a range like this will lead to buy backs from those who got in early as they seek to hit a middle (Ov 57 & Un 64.)
So, if you like the Under in an example like this you have to buy early BEFORE the buy backs knock it back down.
This game came all the way back to 58, so on principle (because I didn't buy correctly) I stayed off.
Easy winner as they combined for only 30.
IF YOU SEE A RISE OF 5 OR > IN YOUR FAVOR DON'T HESITATE, BUY IT BEFORE THE BUY BACK COMES.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-25-2017 at 01:07 PM.
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Old 09-27-2017, 11:23 AM
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Stopping in to add lines to the Ov/Un spots and post a couple of buys I made.

Mia/Duke Ov 57'/56
Coastal Car/UL Monroe Un 58'/59'/55/53
Hou/Temple Ov 46/48/46
Az St/Stan Un 63'/63
Akron/B Green Ov 52'/54'/56

Ov/Un spots are 13-9, Ov 5-6, Un 8-3.

My buys/recommendations: 6-7.
Ov/Un spots 4-6
Other plays 2-0
Halftime adjustments: 0-1


From the the Ov/Un spots I like the Zips Over, but blew it not getting earlier as it's up 4 pts from opener. Not sure if it'll see another rise and buy back to lower the # so I grabbed it at Ov 56.

Worst move of the week was not grabbing Coastal Carolina in the Under spot before it went from 58' to 53, costing me 5 points. Gonna wait on it, hope a buy back comes to push it back up on Saturday. Will post if I buy.

Grabbed the only other Un spot this week, Az St/Stan at 63. It's an earlier start than Coastal Car, if it hits I'll probably lay off the later game.

Might grab the Mia spot Over for some Fri night action, will post if I do.

In other games, I like the Bulldogs vs Tenn, that # is going to rise so I bought -7 laying the extra 5 cents of juice, also like Wisc to pummel N'Western so I bought that at -14 as it will be a few points higher by game time.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-27-2017 at 11:26 AM.
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Old 09-28-2017, 07:23 PM
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Added buy:

I've been watching this A Force line, saw it open at what I thought was a low #, then flip to what I think was the wrong Fav.
Made a note that if it came back to AF as Fav I was going to buy it (I like the Fav in a spot where the Fav flips to Dog, then becomes Fav again. And I like AF in this particular match up, I made them -3.) Grabbed it earlier today when it came back at -1, but don't see any house at -1 as I post this, -1' the most common # so I'll use that for record keeping here.

Side note - I thought I bought Geo -7 with 5 cents extra juice but saw I got -120, so that's the correct # and price on that one, again, for record keeping.

Open buys:
Akron/B Green Ov 56
Az St/Stan Un 63
Wis -14
Geo -7
AF -1'

And where did that soccer ball come from in post #18?

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-28-2017 at 07:33 PM.
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Old 10-02-2017, 06:28 PM
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Recap: 3-2 last week.
Missed with Wisc when they blew a 21 pt lead in the fourth quarter,
AF game I was way off on, really liked them but they got killed. Happens.
Hit with Georgia easy enough, Stan game was on a pace to go way Over at the half, pulled that one out somehow, and Akron game benefited from a smart buy mid-week as anyone who waited until Fri or Sat and played Over lost.

This week's spots:
Tx Tech/Kan Un 80
BG/Mia Oh Ov 51/54
Mia/Fla St Ov 50/48'
K St/Tx Ov 51
W Kent/UTEP Un 51/50'

Record on these spots now 15-12, Ov 6-8, Un 9-4.

Two spots this week have teams from last week. Looking at my logbook I see three of these this year, and all three played out the same way in the second spot (if they won the first, they won the second, if they lost the first, they lost the second.)
The two teams are Mia Fla and B Green.

Mia was an Over that lost last week, so I bought it Under this week, missed the best # at 50, bought 48'.

B Green was an Over that went Over, but by 1 pt; even though all three B2B spots have played the same way in the second game I like this one Under. Not buying yet, line moving in my favor if I choose to buy it. Will update if I do.

Unders performing well this year, so looking at the two this week I'll do what I did last week, buy the early game first, if it stays Under no need to play the second if I choose to lay off. Sponsor here, Bookmaker, still has 80 so I grabbed it before it drops.

For now, I bought:

Miam/Fla St Un 48'
Tex Tech/Kan Un 80

My buys/recommendations: 9-9
Ov/Un spots 6-6
Other plays 3-2
Halftime adjustments: 0-1

Will post up additional buys.

Good luck with your plays this week . . .

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-02-2017 at 06:33 PM.
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  #22  
Old 10-03-2017, 04:55 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Two weeks ago I used 'Bama in a teaz and they routed Vandy 59-0.
I wanted to use them again last week but didn't want to lay the 30 points. Wrong move. 'Bama 66-3.
That's 125-3 in their last two games.
They destroyed Vandy on the road, so no concern going into College Station.
This team is a beast.
I bought at -26 cuz it could be -30 by kickoff, and as long as they keep blowing opponents off the field I'm going to ride them.

Also, I already have the Un in Mia-Fla game and I'm adding the Canes at -3.

LSU beat a lousy BYU squad,
looked mediocre themselves the next week against UT-Chat in a win-but-no-cover at home,
got crushed by Miss St by 30 pts,
barely beat a crappy Syracuse at home in the swamp,
then looked pitiful at home again last week losing SU to Troy as 21 pt Favs.
The Florida offense sucks but I'll ride with the Gators this week off their recent form as something is wrong with the Tigers.

Open plays:
Miam/Fla St Un 48'
Tex Tech/Kan Un 80
'Bama -26
Mia-Fla -3
Florida -3
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Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-03-2017 at 04:58 PM.
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  #23  
Old 10-04-2017, 07:23 AM
dcgmt dcgmt is offline
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GL MR.Nascar
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  #24  
Old 10-05-2017, 03:48 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Thank you, DCGMT! Right back at ya.

I said in post #18 above that if a line moves 5 pts or > in our favor on one of the Unders GRAB it before the buy backs come.
W Kent hit 58 today, I waited a little too long, it's dropping, but plenty of 57' still on the board, I grabbed the Under.

Also, no strong stats/feel/situation in play for me, but I need some fun tonight.
The team total for NC is about right at 30', but I'll take the Over, thinking it'll be a shootout tonight.
Hoping Louisville is good for their usual couple turnovers to help me get there.

Open plays:
Miam/Fla St Un 48'
Tex Tech/Kan Un 80
W Kent/UTEP Un 57'
'Bama -26
Mia-Fla -3
Florida -3
NC St Ov 30'

Good luck with your plays tonight...
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Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-05-2017 at 03:57 PM.
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Old 10-07-2017, 08:33 AM
Jumpsteady Jumpsteady is offline
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Good luck Mr. NASCAR!
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