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  #26  
Old 10-07-2017, 07:55 AM
dcgmt dcgmt is offline
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  #27  
Old 10-07-2017, 08:40 AM
tigerbait tigerbait is offline
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  #28  
Old 10-10-2017, 11:28 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Thanks Jumpsteady, dcgmt and Tigerbait, hope you all had a good week.

Recap: 4-3 last week.
ANY week in the + side is good, but I was hoping to do better than 4-3.
Hit Thursday tm total with NC St easy enough; missed with Tex Tech Un but learned something we could use later possibly; 'Bama was okay at the half, went flat on D second half; Fla sucked as expected; hit with Mia and the Un for 2 wins there though we got lucky with the Canes -3 on that last minute TD; UTEP Un was easy.

What did I learn from Tex Tech that we might be able to use later this season? Same thing I learned with Memphis/U Conn.
Needed Un 80 in Tex Tech/Kan, was at 74 with 3 min left, when Tech, up by 40 pts throws a TD.
Memphis was even worse. Up 60-31 with just over a minute left, Tigers throw a pass on second down, again on third down and again on fourth down. UP BY 30 POINTS and they throw a TD ON 4th DOWN with 1:42 on the clock.
So, what did we learn (other than Mem coach norvelle is a classless jerk)?
When looking at second half plays over these last few weeks know that both Mem and Tech are the type that will run up the score, and use that to our advantage if the right spot comes up.

This week's spots:
Fla St/Duke Ov 45/43'
Ohio/B Green Ov 60'/58'/60
Mia Oh/Kent St Ov 44/43'
Tol/Mich Ov 60'/62/60'
Missouri/Georgia Ov 56'/57
Utah/USC Ov 53'/54'/54

Record on these spots: 18-14, Ov 8-9, Un 10-5.

No Unders this week; that sux.

I noted last week that we had two teams that were in B2B weeks, and when this happens the second game ended the same as the first. That was true again last week as Mia stayed Under like the week before, and B Green went Over (so B2B's are now 5-0.) This week we have Fla St again (Un last week), as well as Mia Ohio (won as an Over last week). And we have B Green in for the third straight week (both times as an Over, both won); no data on a team in three straight weeks in a row, I'd lean fading it and taking the Un this spot (almost did it last week but laid off; good move.)

My buys/recommendations: 13-12
Ov/Un spots 8-7
Other plays 5-4
Halftime adjustments: 0-1

This week: no buys yet.
No Unders to choose from so not happy about that.
Overs I usually look to fade, but as noted above two of the six this week are in B2B spots off of wins, which means % says they go Over again.
B Green is in 3rd time in a row spot and I have no data to point me in any direction there (I'll go through my log books and see if it has happened any of the past ten years, report back if I find anything.)

Back later this week with plays if I buy anything.
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Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-10-2017 at 11:31 AM.
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  #29  
Old 10-10-2017, 12:03 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Nothing stands out from the Ov/Un spots, but I bought a couple other games.

I was "off" on when to buy last week, a couple moved against me, but didn't affect final wins/losses. Buying these now as I see a better chance that they go rather than down:

Auburn -6'
There is a -6 or two left out there, but 6' is common number so I'll use that.
Only loss was by 8 to Clemson (who's avg margin of victory is 24.)
LSU pulled one outta their azz last week and beat me, but Auburn is no Florida.

Mich -6'.
Get the -6 and hook today because it'll be 7 across the board by game day.
Somebody is going to have to pay for the loss in rivalry week vs Mich St, so Indy is in a bad spot. Other two times they faced a ranked opponent this year saw losses by 28 to Ohio St (Indy at home) and @ Penn St, lost by 31.
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Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-10-2017 at 12:04 PM.
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  #30  
Old 10-10-2017, 12:19 PM
dcgmt dcgmt is offline
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Looks GOOD GL Mr.NASCAR
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  #31  
Old 10-11-2017, 12:26 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Thanks again, dcgmt, let's hope they still look good by end of day Saturday!

I edited out a write up on G Tech in my last post, when +7 was still readily available. Like 'em, but they're at +5 now. Don't expect a buy back, the +7 was wrong/too high to begin with; no play for me on it, but, I am going to add TCU -6.

After the Oklahoma loss last week, the Sooners join Tex Tech and Ok St as one loss teams, meaning 6-0 TCU (with a W over Ok St already) is in the driver's seat. Snyder is a guy I would rather bet on than against, but it's going to be difficult for him to get his team back "up" after double OT loss last week, and I think TCU will have too many edges in this match-up (incl. QB, D & TOP) so I'm buying this at -6 today, in case it goes any higher.
The other two early buys I made/recommended look to be the right move, thus far, as -7 is now the common # in both spots.
I think the same happens with TCU so I bought it this morning.

Still nothing on the Ov/Un spots, may pull the trigger on Fla St Un, will post if I do. I looked through data over a lot of years, searching for a spot where a team appeared three straight weeks (like B Green this week) found nothing of value for us to use.

Open buys:
Mich -6'
Auburn -6'
TCU -6

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-11-2017 at 12:29 PM.
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  #32  
Old 10-16-2017, 01:20 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: Hit 2 of 3, I'll take it.
Also posted a rare NFL play using a spot that comes up 2-3 time each season, I look for it every week, Pit qualified so hit a winner there too, for a 3-1 week at The Mall.

Lost with Auburn after they went up 21-0 then went flat; easy win with TCU; some might say we got lucky with Mich OT win, but, on the other hand, a smart buy midweek when 6' was the common # banked a W as the # was 7 or 7' game day.

REMINDER - in the future, try not to bet Harbaugh as a favorite. The guy could kick a first quarter FG to go up 3-0, and then go into prevent D/run out the clock Offense.

Ov/Un spots went 3-3, all Overs.
21-17 now, Ov 11-12, Un 10-5.

This week, Pepe, we have a plethora of plays:

Iowa/N West Ov 47'
NC/V Tech Ov 50/51
Syr/Mia Ov 58
Iowa St/Tex Tech Un 71/72
Maryland/Wisc Un 54/55
Louisville/Fla St Ov 56
Tulsa/U Conn Un 72/70
BC/Virg Ov 50/48'
Troy/Geo St Ov 44/47
C Mich/Ball St Ov 48
Kentucky/Miss St Ov 52/53

Whew, that's a lot of plays to sort out and choose from.
Will as always look to play the Un and fade Overs.

Let's start by looking at teams that are repeats from last week. Going into last week we had 5 teams that appeared in back to back spots (B2B). In all 5 the second game played out the same way as the first. We had 2 teams in B2B last week; Fla St stayed Un again, but Mia-Oh came in Under after going Ov in their first appearance. So these are now 5-1, 6-1 if you count B Green which was in it's third appearance in a row and again went Over.

This week, we have C Mich B2B off of an Under,
and Fla St in it's 3rd in a row off an Under.

My buys/recommendations: 15-13
Ov/Un spots 8-7
Other plays 7-5
Halftime adjustments: 0-1

Buys:
Tulsa/ U Conn Un 70
BC/Virg Un 48'
C Mich/Ball St Un 48

Will post up with more,
good luck with your play this week . . .
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  #33  
Old 10-18-2017, 11:19 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Update: If I was making my first buys of the week today, I would not buy BC/Virg Under & C Mich/Ball St Under. Sorry.
Posting this now in case anyone follows along and hasn't bought them yet.

I am not going to buy off them and lose juice by buying the Over, and they will of course count in my record here.

Here's what happened. I posted from my office after I bought the three plays for this week. My logbook was at home. There is a stat I log that I do not post because I sometimes think (think??) I post too much info/stat stuff here and it might get confusing. Anyway, have my logbook in the office today and noticed that these plays buck a 4-0 sub-trend, so I would have probably laid off. Again, sorry.

Added buy:
Kentucky/Miss St Un 54'

Open plays:
Tulsa/ U Conn Un 70
BC/Virg Un 48'
C Mich/Ball St Un 48
Kentucky/Miss St Un 54'

Will have more, will post after I buy.
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  #34  
Old 10-19-2017, 10:29 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Adding two plays.

Iowa -1'

C Fla -7

Tough spot for Navy this week, run oriented team vs a very solid run D, but main reason for the pick is Navy vs the pass last game, after seeing them give up almost 300 yards to Memphis (yes, 5 t/o's didn't help them, but they gave up too many yds in the air.)

Looking at their other games I see (OFFENSE ranking/passing YPG)
A Force 123/133
Tulsa 110/171
Cin 70/221
Tulane 126/102
Fla Atl 109/173

Memphis is better than all of those, but UCF is far better than Memphis, ranked 13 in the country on O, and passing for 321 YPG. And Memphis gives up 208 YPG on the ground while UCF barely over 100.
Everyone knows Navy cannot play from behind, they lack quick score capabilities, they're not a passing team. Fall behind early, and they're in trouble. We'll know if my take on this game is correct by halftime, as I think UCF defense keeps Navy run game in check, and the O opens it up in the air, putting Navy down early.

Open plays:
Tulsa/ U Conn Un 70
BC/Virg Un 48'
C Mich/Ball St Un 48
Kentucky/Miss St Un 54'
Iowa -1'
UCF -7
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Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-19-2017 at 10:39 AM.
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  #35  
Old 10-19-2017, 02:42 PM
tigerbait tigerbait is offline
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