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  #51  
Old 11-07-2017, 10:24 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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I know people check this thread out once in a while.
Not sure what for:
to see which Unders are in play this week?
to fade Overs?
to read writeups on other games and see if they agree, or disagree with the analysis?

I KNOW there's a lot of stuff in here each week, but anybody catch amateur mistake I made yesterday? (and if you ever do see one, point it out. I'm human, I miss stuff sometimes.)

Making mistakes is part of sports betting, but like anything else in life you have to learn from them; and not repeat them. I was so pissed about going 3-3 last week, and missing out on fading the Overs, I just faded all of them for this week. And in doing so made a mistake. Yesterday I said:

"Tough to fade the opening spot Tue night, after watching both Tue MAC spots go Ov by double digits last week AND this spot falls into a sub-category I track that is 9-4 on Overs (NC St/BC also in that same situation this week.)"

Sound familiar?

From 10/18:

If I was making my first buys of the week today, I would not buy BC/Virg Under & C Mich/Ball St Under. Sorry.
Posting this now in case anyone follows along and hasn't bought them yet.
There is a stat I log that I do not post because I sometimes think (think??) I post too much info/stat stuff here and it might get confusing. Anyway, have my logbook in the office today and noticed that these plays buck a 4-0 sub-trend, so I would have probably laid off. Again, sorry.


What were the 2 plays? A MAC game Under and BC game Under (just like the two this week.) And both lost.

I did it again. Same sub-trend. I saw it yesterday, bet against it,
didn't remember that I did it on the week of 10-18 and lost both.

MORON! AMATUER! I SICKEN ME!

Same deal - not going to buy off and lose juice, hope for split at worst case.
Ugh . . .

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-07-2017 at 10:27 AM.
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  #52  
Old 11-07-2017, 05:47 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Not to harp on it but REALLY hate tonight's buy.
If it was still at 50 I would buy off and surrender juice.
Stuck with a pick I don't like AND a terrible # as it's at 55 now. DOH!
That aside . . .
I bought Geo -2'.
I know I'm going to watch it, and want $ on it, and I think Geo is the better team,
and I know it's going to be higher than 2' by game time, so bought it now. Auburn has had a slightly tougher schedule, but not by much, so until somebody beats Geo, I'll ride 'em.

Same with Temple, bought the 2' now.

Buys
(Tue) Ak/Mia Oh Un 50
(Fri) Temple/Cin Un 48
Fla Atl/LA Tech Un 68
NC St/BC Un 52
V Tech/G Tech Un 50
W For/Syr Un 60
Geo St/Tx St Un 48
Geo -2'
Temple -2'
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Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-07-2017 at 05:49 PM.
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  #53  
Old 11-14-2017, 11:03 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: 3-5-1. Got a 13 pt first half in Temple, still couldn't win on the Under.
And, got Kiffin-fucked in Fla Atl; last week he caught crap for not going for an easy cover, this week up by 19 pts, he punches in a meaningless TD late to screw my Under. Never got back in with a buy on the Un in Virg & missed a winner there.

Record at 28-27, above .500 but down juice, with the clock running out as the season nears its end. A 28-27 record translates to -1.7 in juice, so that's the target - get back 1.7 plus.

The main goal, as always, do not lose $ on the season.
Second goal is to show a profit; third goal to shoot for is 67%.

Why is the goal to not lose, rather than to win?
Because fact is the overwhelming majority of people who wager on sports lose money. They're loathe to admit it, but it is true.
So, the first goal is always to not lose $.
I look at it like entertainment - playing sports, going to a concert, dinner, movie; it is disposable income, BUT with a chance to bring back a return.
It's recreation, a chess game - can I beat the book this season?
I have a career - that's how I make money; sports betting is entertainment.

I got to yell at my TV on more than 50 games this year, had a lot of fun, cost me very little. Now, over the final weeks I get a chance to actually show a profit for my entertainment, like golfing for $ or playing poker.

Use THAT as your goal, and NOT to attempt to make a living off sports betting and you'll have a much better time, not to mention not lose your bankroll, and possibly more/worse.

But, that's just my take on it.

Ov/Un spots went 4-3, Ov 3-2-1, Un 1-1.
Season now: 38-36, 23-28 Ov, 15-8 Un.

This week:
Virg/Mia Ov 50'
Fresno St/Wyo Ov 41'
BC/U Conn Ov 51
Cin/E Car Ov 64'
Purdue/Iowa Ov 41

No Unders this week, that sux.
No buys yet. Will update when/if I do, good luck with your play this week.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-14-2017 at 11:04 AM.
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  #54  
Old 11-15-2017, 11:33 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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First buys of the week.

TCU sittin at -6', WV at -3'; both games have moved down to current #, little chance WV gets to -3 but no need to buy right now, just in case.
Will definitely buy both, will update with #'s when I do.

Already took a fade on one of the Overs from this week, I bought Fresno St/Wyoming Un 41.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-15-2017 at 11:36 AM.
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  #55  
Old 11-16-2017, 11:49 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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The W Virg game actually did get to -3 (I thought it would move the other way) so I bought that one this morning,
also grabbed the -6' with TCU before it goes to 7.

And I'm going big on Ole Miss this weekend. The loss of Patterson was supposed to be a setback but Ta'Amu has led them to at least 37 pts in his three games, and each week I've kicked myself in the azz for not betting their tm totals. Hope I'm not Johnny-come-lately and getting on the bandwagon too late, but I laid the -2', took Over 68, and will likely buy Miss tm total Ov in the first half when it comes out, if I get the # I want. I think that at home they are going to jump all over A&M right out of the gate in what should be a fun game to watch.

Buys
Fresno St/Wyoming Un 41
W Virg -3
TCU -6' -115
Miss -2'
Tex A&M/Miss Ov 68
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Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-16-2017 at 11:58 AM.
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