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  #26  
Old 08-29-2018, 01:20 PM
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By the numbers ...



• 9.2 percent: The percentage of regular-season games that were decided by three points last year, a three-year high. Seven was the most common margin of victory in 2016. Over the past three seasons, 8.3 percent of games have ended with a three-point margin of victory, and 8.1 percent of games have ended with a seven-point margin of victory, according to ESPN Stats & Information.


• 128: The number of games to feature a point spread of -3. Three-point favorites are 63-53-12 against the spread over the past three regular seasons.


• 127: The number of games that have featured a point spread of -7 over the past three seasons. Seven-point favorites are 57-57-13.


• 96-59-2: Wisconsin's record against the spread in second halves since 2005.


• 57-97-5: USC's record against the spread in second halves since 2005.


• 183: The number of games won straight-up by point-spread underdogs last season. That's 17 fewer than 2016 but still the third-most outright upsets in the past 13 years.


• 12: The number of outright upsets pulled by Wyoming coach Craig Bohl over the past five seasons, the most in the nation.


• 55.86: Average total points scored in regular-season games in 2017, the lowest since 2011.


• 442: The number of regular-season games that stayed under the total in 2017, the most since at least 2005. There have been more unders than overs in four consecutive seasons.


• 423: The number of underdogs that covered the spread during the 2017 regular season, the second-most in at least the past 13 seasons and behind only 2016.
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  #27  
Old 08-29-2018, 07:01 PM
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Bovada ...

The teams getting the most national championship futures bets:


Alabama 19%
Clemson 14%
Georgia & Ohio State 9%
Michigan 6%
Wisconsin 5%

No other team higher than 2%
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  #28  
Old 08-30-2018, 10:00 AM
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Northwestern @ Purdue


Purdue opened as a 3.5-point home favorite, and Northwestern has drawn slightly more total bets at 61%.

The actual dollars wagered are split almost 50/50, yet the line has dropped to Purdue -1/-1.5 across the betting market.

The total opened at 48.5 on Aug. 24 at Pinnacle, an offshore sportsbook that takes large wagers from professional bettors.

It was slowly bet all the way up to 53 this week, then back to 52.5. Nearly 85% of dollars wagered on the total in this game at Pinnacle have been on the over.
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  #29  
Old 08-30-2018, 12:05 PM
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Ranked NCAAF teams that go on the road their first game have covered just 38% of the time.
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  #30  
Old 08-30-2018, 01:18 PM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books

Thursday Night

UCF -24 (67%) at UConn
Minn -21.5 (71%) v NMSU
Wake -6 (54%) at Tulane
Purdue -1.5 (39%) v NW
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  #31  
Old 08-30-2018, 01:58 PM
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The Action Network

Three games in particular have drawn an exceptionally high number of bettors that all seem to be in agreement.


Texas at Maryland
Saturday, Sept. 1
12 p.m. ET

What the public is betting: Texas -13.5

Texas is the most popular team in Week 1. This game is on pace to be the third most heavily bet game of the weekend, and the Longhorns have received 81% of those bets.

They’ve also landed 91% of dollars, which explains the line move from -9 to -13.5 — one of the biggest moves on the board.

Why the public loves Texas ... It’s late August, which means the annual tradition of Texas being “back” is in full swing. This year there’s even going to be a little number written next to the Longhorns’ name to begin the season, and the public loves little numbers (I’m referring to rankings here if you’re not picking up on that).

This is also a revenge game for Texas. Last season opened with this same matchup in Austin, and Maryland pulled off the surprise 51-41 victory, so you can bet that the public is expecting a motivated Texas squad on Saturday.



Florida Atlantic at Oklahoma
Saturday, Sept. 1
12 p.m. ET

What the public is betting: Over 72

Just behind Texas-Maryland, this game is on pace to have the fourth-biggest handle of the weekend. It’s also drawn 77% of bettors to the over, accounting for 79% of dollars wagered. With that support, the total has risen from 65.5 to 72 at Bookmaker.

Why the public loves the over ... Lane Kiffin’s name is synonymous with offense. As long as he’s calling the shots, bettors will flock to the over.

In fact, in his 65 games as head coach in our database, only seven times has the over received fewer than 50% of bets (for what it’s worth, his over record is 32-33).

Throw in the fact that he’s playing against last year’s NCAA leader in total offense, and this bet from the public should come as no surprise.



Michigan at Notre Dame
Saturday, Sept. 1
7:30 p.m. ET

What the public is betting: Under 46.5

As you might’ve expected, this game is on pace to be the most heavily bet of the weekend. While bettors aren’t totally in agreement on a side, they’ve certainly come to a consensus on the over/under.

The under has attracted 82% of bets and 81% of dollars, dropping the total a point from 47.5.

Why the public loves the under ... Jim Harbaugh has had the Wolverines in the top 10 total defenses in each of his four years at Michigan. They’ve been in the top five in three straight years, and were even number one in 2016.

Playing an inexperienced Notre Dame offense, and with the Wolverines having plenty of questions of their own on offense, bettors are expecting points to come at a premium Saturday night.
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  #32  
Old 08-30-2018, 02:39 PM
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Georgia State has moved from +3 to -3 since opening against Kennesaw State
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  #33  
Old 08-30-2018, 03:39 PM
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Thursday night insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Vegas ...


Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers – Open: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -1

Northwestern opens the season with a boatload of momentum carrying over from its 2017-18 campaign. The Wildcats won their last eight games, including three consecutive overtime victories, and cashed in the first seven of that stretch. Coach Pat Fitzgerald’s troops capped the year by edging Kentucky 24-23 as an 8-point favorite in the Music City Bowl, finishing 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS.

The Wildcats lost quarterback Clayton Thorson to a torn ACL in that finale. However, it appears Thorson will be under center for this 8 p.m. ET Big Ten clash.

Purdue also found its way to a bowl game, winning three of its final four regular-season contests to reach the Foster Farms Bowl. The Boilermakers then topped Arizona 38-35 as a 2.5-point underdog to complete a 7-6 year (9-4 ATS).

“On the pointspread, five times more Northwestern money, both on account and over the counter,” Bernanke said this afternoon of action at CG Technology books, including The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. “On the moneyline, 78% of all dollars are on Northwestern.”

Bernanke added that 90% of all dollars on the total were on the Over, driving the number from 51 to 53.

“The ideal result for CG would be a low-scoring Purdue win that covers all numbers,” he said.



New Mexico State Aggies at Minnesota Golden Gophers – Open: -18.5; Move: -18; Move: -18.5; Move: -19.5; Move: -20.5; Move: -21; Move: -22; Move: -23; Move: -22.5; Move: -23

This 7 p.m. ET matchup wouldn’t be noteworthy except for the fact that New Mexico State is on a short week, after opening the season five days ago. The Aggies lost to Wyoming 29-7 as a 5-point home underdog on Saturday night.

Coach P.J. Fleck enters his second year of working to revive the Minnesota program. Last year, the Golden Gophers won their first three games, two in blowout fashion, but notched just two wins the rest of the season to finish 5-7 SU (4-7-1 ATS). In their last two games, at Northwestern and home to Wisconsin, the Gophers lost 39-0 and 31-0, respectively.

“On the pointspread, two times more New Mexico State money on account, while 91% of over-the-counter money is on Minnesota. So it’s a Pros vs. Joes,” Bernanke said, adding that on the total – now at 48.5 after opening at 45.5 – the large majority of account money is on the Over, while over-the-counter cash is largely on the Under. “The ideal result would be a low-scoring New Mexico State cover but Minnesota win.”
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  #34  
Old 08-30-2018, 04:52 PM
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BetOnline

Sharp Action tonight

NW +3 ... now +1
Minnesota -19.5 or better ... now -21.5
NW Over 49 ... now 53
Ball St -14.5 ... now -14
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  #35  
Old 08-30-2018, 05:27 PM
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Biggest liabilities tonight at CGTechnology Sportsbooks

UCF
Northwestern
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  #36  
Old 08-30-2018, 05:43 PM
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The Greek Sportsbook

Biggest Liabilities Tonight

Minnesota
NW-PUR over
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  #37  
Old 08-30-2018, 05:45 PM
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The Greek Sportsbook

Sharp Action

Central Florida
Northwestern
NW-PUR over
Minnesota
NEW MEX ST-MIN over
Tulane (small)
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  #38  
Old 08-30-2018, 05:53 PM
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Steam Moves

222) BALL ST
226) UL-MONROE
230) OKLAHOMA ST
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  #39  
Old 08-30-2018, 07:07 PM
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Wake Forest is 39-27-2 against the spread over the past five seasons (59.1%). That makes the Deacons the second-best Power 5 bet in college football over the past five seasons. (Va Tech is first.)
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  #40  
Old 08-30-2018, 07:12 PM
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Northwestern is the best bet in the Big Ten and the third best bet among Power 5 teams over the past 5 seasons - 37-32-1 ATS (53.6%).
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  #41  
Old 08-30-2018, 07:16 PM
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Purdue at home last 5 seasons

SU: 11-24
ATS: 13-21-1
O/U: 21-14
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  #42  
Old 08-30-2018, 07:20 PM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books

Most bet late games ...

57% of spread bets are on Tulane +7
55% of spread bets are on Northwestern +1
51% of spread bets are on Northwestern State +47
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  #43  
Old 08-31-2018, 08:58 AM
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Great stuff.
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  #44  
Old 08-31-2018, 04:36 PM
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MGM Race and Sports ... on Friday action

A large casino player came in Monday and put five figures on Stanford -14.5 and on Colorado -7.5. Moved Stanford to 15.5, but "We’re down to 13.5 now. We’ve been taking sharp money on San Diego State"

"But the pointspread money is still about 4/1 on Stanford, and the ticket count is 2/1 on the favorite. The public definitely likes Stanford.”

The 5-figure bet on Buffaloes moved line from -7.5 to -8.5 vs. Colorado State. But we've been taking more on Colo. St. the last day or so. We're now at -7.5, even money on Colorado."

"The sharp money is on Colorado State, and the public likes the favorite. The ticket count is 3/1 on Colorado, and the money is 5/1.”
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  #45  
Old 08-31-2018, 04:38 PM
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The Greek Sportsbook

A little sharp money on San Diego State and under
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  #46  
Old 08-31-2018, 04:40 PM
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Top Bet Sportsbook

Most popular Friday bet is Wisconsin -37
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  #47  
Old 08-31-2018, 04:50 PM
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Since 2007, teams are 45-66 ATS (40%) the week after playing Wisconsin.
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  #48  
Old 08-31-2018, 05:00 PM
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Nick Saban is 9-1 ATS as Alabama’s coach in season openers

In Week 1, Texas is getting 81% of bets against Maryland at Sports Insights books, the most lopsided Power 5 game of the slate.

UNLV is getting 91% of dollars vs. USC at Sports Insights books, but less than half the wagers.
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  #49  
Old 08-31-2018, 05:06 PM
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Old 08-31-2018, 05:31 PM
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The Greek Sportsbook

Sharp Action

Duke
UTA ST-MSU over
Wisconsin
Nevada
Colorado
CU-CSU over
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