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  #626  
Old 11-07-2018, 12:50 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Wiseguys Quietly Betting Ohio-Miami Ohio Over/Under

PJ Walsh
1 hour ago

NCAAF
Ohio is a 4.5-point road favorite against Miami Ohio on Wednesday night (7 p.m. ET, ESPNU).
Sharps have quietly bet the over/under (61.5) throughout the week.
Using Sports Insights' betting tools, we break down how professionals are playing this matchup.
Tuesday was one heck of a sports day, headlined by the Michigan State-Kansas and Duke-Kentucky college basketball doubleheader.

Much of the mainstream sports media attention was focused on those two matchups, with Kent State-Buffalo also generating a surprisingly large betting handle, according to The Action Network’s public betting data.



Ohio-Miami Ohio Betting Preview: Last Week’s MACtion Results Creating Value?
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But while fans and recreational bettors were focusing on Zion Williamson and some crazy college football weather, professionals were already eyeing tonight’s Ohio-Miami Ohio (7 p.m. ET, ESPNU) game.

Using Sports Insights’ betting tools, we can pinpoint how wiseguys spent Tuesday quietly getting down on Wednesday’s college football matchup.

Pinnacle opened the Ohio-Miami Ohio over/under at 63, and one-sided action has hit the over throughout the week.

Eighty percent of tickets and seventy-three percent of dollars wagered on the total are on the over, yet the number has ticked down to 61.5 across the market and even to 61 at Bookmaker, indicating sharps are actually on the under.

Sports Insights’ Bet Signals — which track and report professional betting action in real-time — triggered a Steam and Reverse Line Move Tuesday morning, describing how sharps quietly hit this total.

It’s certainly not the sexiest matchup of the week, but value is value and professionals have found it with the Ohio-Miami Ohio total.
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  #627  
Old 11-07-2018, 12:50 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Ohio-Miami Ohio Betting Preview: Last Week’s MACtion Results Creating Value?

Action Network Staff
3 hours ago

NCAAF
Ohio vs. Miami-Ohio Betting Odds, Pick
Odds: Ohio -4.5
Over/Under: 61.5
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPNU
Fresh off a blowout of Western Michigan, Ohio travels to Miami-Ohio trying to keep pace in the MAC East.

The two teams are coming off very different results last week. Is that creating value on Miami Ohio?

Market Moves for Ohio-Miami Ohio
By Steve Petrella

Behind the majority of bets, Ohio has moved to -4.5 after opening -3 at Bookmaker. As of Wednesday morning, 82% of bets and 70% of dollars were on the Bobcats (see live data here).

Every year, we see teams get massive public support during midweek MAC games because of what happened the week prior. Ohio stomped Western Michigan 59-14, while Miami-Ohio lost to Buffalo in a shootout and didn’t cover — both in standalone games that bettors saw.

Matchup Breakdown for Ohio-Miami Ohio
By Stuckey

Miami Ohio’s offense comes in on a roll, having scored 30-plus points in six straight games. It should have success moving the ball through the air against an Ohio defense that struggles immensely to defend the pass.

Per S&P+, the Bobcats rank 114th in the nation in passing defense and allow 8.3 yards per attempt (108th in the country).

The strength of the Miami Ohio offense resides up front, with one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country. All five starters returned from last season on a unit that only allowed 21 sacks all season.

It currently ranks in the top-five nationally in Adjusted Sack Rate on passing downs. The Redhawks should dominate the line of scrimmage against an Ohio defense that ranks outside the top 100 in Adjusted Sack Rate on passing downs.



The Action Network 2018 College Football Power Rankings
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When Ohio has the ball, it’s all about stopping its rushing attack (5.6 yards per attempt; 14th in country) and explosive plays. Miami Ohio’s defense actually ranks in the top 30 nationally in defending explosiveness and has a capable run defense that ranks 32nd in the nation at 3.6 yards per attempt.

Martin’s Close Game History a Concern
By Stuckey

Miami O’s horrid record in close games (5-21) under Chuck Martin does scare me in a game that should be close, but I think this is too many points for a team that should come in fully motivated looking to keep its bowl hopes alive and end a five-game losing streak to its in-state rival.

Remember, this is a senior-laden team that didn’t give up after falling to 3-6 last season.

Ohio has also benefited from plenty of turnover luck this season, namely fumbles, which is not something that should be relied on. The Bobcats have gained about four more turnovers than expected. Plus, Miami Ohio doesn’t really turn the ball over.


Miami Ohio Dealing With Injuries
By Stuckey

The biggest question is whether injuries have caught up to Miami Ohio. The Redhawks just lost senior safety De’Andre Montgomery and senior MLB Junior McMullen. They already lost senior DT Nate Trawick, who was one of their best interior players.

Senior corners Deondre Daniels and Daryus Thompson are all listed as questionable, along with DL Isaac Hampton. That’s a lot of injuries to veterans for one defense to deal with.

Bet to Watch
By Collin Wilson

We are siding with the Redhawks in the Battle of the Bricks. Miami Ohio has the chance to play spoiler to Ohio’s shot at the MAC East division before the Bobcats’ game against Buffalo next week.

The Redhawks also need three straight victories to make the postseason, which isn’t a stretch considering quarterback Gus Ragland won six straight two years ago to get bowl eligible.

Ohio has put monster offensive numbers on the board over the past few weeks, scoring 160 points in the past three games. The issue with the Bobcats is a strength of schedule rank at 123rd.

Miami Ohio’s ranking of 72nd in S&P+ will provide the Bobcats their toughest game since a Cincinnati loss in Week 4

Ohio doesn’t play much defense, ranking 96th in S&P+ against the rush and 114th against the pass. The Redhawks should be able to take the rush away from the Bobcats, ranking 29th against rush explosiveness.

The Action Network’s power ratings and S&P+ both have this game projected at Ohio -1.5. Shop for the best Redhawks number, and consider the under with Ohio’s adjusted pace ranking of 120th.

THE PICK: Miami Ohio +4.5

Key Trends
By John Ewing

Road favorites in MAC games have been highly profitable since 2005, going 151-110-8 (58%) against the spread, according to our Bet Labs data. Later in the season, November and December, road favorites have gone 62-38-5 (62%) ATS.

By Evan Abrams

Ohio has been on a roll, winning three consecutive games straight up and ATS, covering the spread by a whopping 29.3 PPG during that streak.

Since 2005, teams on at least a three-game winning streak that have covered their past three games by at least 21 PPG have gone just 30-33-1 ATS (-4.6 units) at home, but are actually 44-31-3 ATS (58.7%) away from home.
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  #628  
Old 11-07-2018, 05:07 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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#NCAAF Action Tonight:

��7pm ET:
#Ohio at #MiamiOhio
83% of spread bets on Ohio -5.5

��8pm ET:
#Toldeo at #NorthernIllinois
57% of spread bets on NIU -3.5

��⬇️

Last edited by goldengreek; 11-07-2018 at 05:09 PM.
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  #629  
Old 11-07-2018, 05:08 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Forecast calls for 33 degree temperatures for Toledo-Northern Illinois.

Since 2005, the under is 8-3 in games played at Huskie Stadium with temperatures below 40 degrees.

https://t.c
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  #630  
Old 11-07-2018, 07:11 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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@BetTheGreek: CFB Sharp Action
Ohio (small)
OHI-MIA under
Northern Illinois

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  #631  
Old 11-08-2018, 02:11 AM
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Wake Forest-N.C. State Betting Preview: Quarterback Disparity Could Make the Difference

Action Network Staff
4 hours ago

NCAAF
Wake Forest-N.C. State Betting Odds, Pick
Odds: N.C. State -17
Over/Under: 69
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
N.C. State is hanging onto its New Year’s Six bowl hopes as it hosts Wake Forest on Thursday night as a sizable favorite.

The Demon Deacons haven’t lived up to expectations this season, going 2-7 against the spread and failing to cover by an average of 6.7 points per game, the 10th-worst mark in the country.

How Much Is Sam Hartman Worth?
By Collin Wilson

The news came out Sunday that Wake Forest freshman quarterback Sam Hartman would miss the remainder of the season with a right leg injury. He’ll be replaced by redshirt sophomore Jamie Newman.

Backup quarterbacks at Wake don’t have much experience in 2018, with Newman attempting 15 passes and Kendall Hinton throwing eight.



The Action Network 2018 College Football Power Rankings
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Before this news, The Action Network power ratings made this game N.C. State -11.5, while S&P+ had the game -13 in favor of the Wolfpack.

It begs the question: is the loss of Sam Hartman worth the adjustment to the current number of -17?

Will New QB Change How Wake Operates?
By Steve Petrella

Newman was the No. 16 dual-threat quarterback in his recruiting class, and has been better as a runner in very limited work. At 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, he’s a potential bruiser who can be effective running inside the tackles.

N.C. State has a much better rush defense than pass defense (11th vs. the run, 103rd against the pass, per S&P+), so it will be interesting to see how Wake attacks that.



How to Bet on College Football: Using Advanced Stats to Handicap Games
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We know coach Dave Clawson will stick with his read-based offense, but will he keep it on the ground and in the hands of his inexperienced quarterback, or let Newman air it out?

This game has a massive pace disparity, with N.C. State ranking 88th in plays per minute compared to Wake’s No. 2. The Demon Deacons like to play fast.

N.C. State is a ball control team that ranks top 10 in time of possession and has the 109th-most possessions per game. The Wolfpack use their efficient offense, which is frequently in third-and-short situations (32nd nationally), to control the ball.

I might be looking to play the second half under if Wake is trailing, because N.C. State will own the clock and limit the Deacs’ possessions. The first half under is also interesting if it takes Newman some time to get acclimated, though I don’t trust Wake’s defense to hold up.

Ryan Finley Will Feast
By Stuckey

N.C. State should be motivated to avenge a home loss to Wake Forest last season where the Wolfpack dominated the box score. But instead of scoring the game-winning touchdown in the final minutes, the Pack fumbled into the end zone.

As Collin alluded to, Ryan Finley should have all day to throw as N.C. State has one of the best offensive lines in the country. The Wolfpack rank first in sack rate and second on both standard downs and on passing downs. The Wolf Pack should keep the chains moving all night through an efficient short passing game.

However, there is just no value in this number.

By Collin Wilson

The biggest handicap in this game, outside of the Deacs’ quarterback situation, is the pass defense of Wake Forest. Quarterback Ryan Finley may have a career day against a Demon Deacons secondary that ranks 12th in the ACC and 115th in FBS in yards allowed per game.

Wake is 116th in the nation against pass completion percentage and 92nd in passing downs sack rate. This could be a long night for the Deacs’ defense as they struggle to find answers at quarterback.



Heisman Odds Watch: Is Tagovailoa a Lock to Win the Award?
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Trends to Know
By John Ewing

Wake lost to No. 19 Syracuse 41-24 on Saturday. Teams that lost their previous game to a ranked opponent and then played a Top-25 opponent the following week have gone 147-186-8 (44%) ATS since 2005 per our Bet Labs data. Teams that lost by double-digits, like Wake, have performed even worse going 72-108-5 (40%) ATS.

By Evan Abrams

Wake Forest has struggled so far this season (currently 4-5, including 2-7 ATS) losing three of their past four straight up and ATS (37.2 PPG allowed per game).

As the head coach of N.C. State and Northern Illinois (2011-12), Dave Doeren-coached teams have excelled when facing poor defensive teams, going 14-7 ATS (66.7%), covering the spread by 8.8 PPG. When Doeren faces a team allowing 35 PPG or more, he is 7-2 ATS, covering the spread by 11.9 PPG.
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  #632  
Old 11-08-2018, 02:14 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Boise State a Home Underdog for First Time Since 2001

Danny Donahue
5 hours ago

NCAAF
Boise State is currently a 3-point home underdog for Friday night's matchup with Fresno State (10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
Should Boise State close as the underdog, it'll be the first time the Broncos are underdogs at home since 2001.
Over the past two decades, Boise State has been as dominant of a home team as there’s been in college football.

Since its loss to Washington State in September of 2001, the Broncos have gone 105-6 at Albertsons Stadium, the best home record in the country over that span.



Ohio-Miami Ohio Betting Preview: Last Week’s MACtion Results Creating Value?
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Why would I pick that loss in particular as the starting point? Because it was the last time that Boise State was an underdog at home … until this week.

According to the latest odds at Pinnacle, the Broncos are getting three points against visiting Fresno State Friday night.

Boise State has consistently been a powerhouse in the Mountain West Conference since it joined in 2011, finishing with double-digit wins in all but two of those seasons.

This year, however, the most impressive team in the conference has undoubtedly been Fresno State.

The Bulldogs were ranked 23rd in the country in Tuesday night’s latest College Football Playoff rankings release.

They’re tied with Mississippi State as the second-best scoring defense in the country, giving up only 12.3 points per game, and they enter Friday night’s matchup with only one loss to Boise State’s two.

It’ll be interesting to see if bettors move this line off the key number before kickoff, but barring any injury news, we can be just about certain that Boise State’s 111-game run as a favorite at home is coming to an end
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  #633  
Old 11-08-2018, 09:05 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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NYK...Lets gooooo

This is your thread , I just kept it warm for you.

Fire away
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  #634  
Old 11-08-2018, 01:35 PM
MinnesotaMiracleMan MinnesotaMiracleMan is offline
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I don’t blame New York Knight if he doesn’t come back. He was awesome at what he provided, arguably the best, but people are too damn sensitive nowadays. It’s a shame.
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  #635  
Old 11-08-2018, 05:45 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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@BetTheGreek: CFB Sharp Action
North Carolina State

We're going to need Wake Forest to cover tonight.

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  #636  
Old 11-08-2018, 06:01 PM
SCFAN SCFAN is online now
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Keep up the good work GG ... Been following you for years brother and I appreciate all your hard work. Hopefully knighter comes back soon
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  #637  
Old 11-08-2018, 06:05 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Sharp Money Responsible for Wake Forest-NC State Line Movement

PJ Walsh
1 hour ago

NCAAF
NC State is a 19-point home favorite against Wake Forest on Thursday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Sharp bettors have taken an interest in this game, driving significant line movement since this point spread opened.
Using Sports Insights' betting tools, we analyze how professional money is shaping this line.
Recreational bettors will gravitate toward tonight’s shockingly interesting Thursday Night Football matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 p.m. ET, FOX).



Panthers-Steelers TNF Betting Preview: Ride With Carolina as a Trendy Underdog?
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However, that’s not the only football game being played on Thursday night. Wake Forest is visiting NC State (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) in an ACC matchup that’s attracting attention from professional bettors.

Using Sports Insights’ betting tools, we can determine how sharp money has shaped this line throughout the week.
The Wolfpack opened as 15-point home favorites on Sunday.

And according to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals — which track sharp action in real-time — professional bettors steamed the opener of NC State -15, likely leveraging the breaking news that Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman would miss the rest of the season.

Wolfpack money continued to show up throughout the week, as 70% of tickets and 84% of dollars wagered on the spread have taken the home favorite.

Sharps once again hit NC State Thursday morning, evidenced by a Steam Move trigger at -18, which pushed the line up to -19 at Bookmaker and -19.5 at a handful of other sportsbooks, including Pinnacle
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  #638  
Old 11-08-2018, 06:36 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Wake Forest at NC State tonight. 68% of the cash on the Wolfpack -18. Bet here> http://bit.ly/2zPl1aw
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  #639  
Old 11-08-2018, 08:34 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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MODS


Got this message from NYK

Can you help him out ? He can't post

Hey bro ... Thanks for keeping those info threads alive. My ban has been over for a week but I am still unable to post or collect rewards to send a pm to mods trying to fix the problem. Jack never responds to the pm's in the administration thread and I had a couple guys contact Wayne about the situation and his response is he can't do anything about it.
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  #640  
Old 11-08-2018, 09:03 PM
vikesfan vikesfan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
MODS


Got this message from NYK

Can you help him out ? He can't post

Hey bro ... Thanks for keeping those info threads alive. My ban has been over for a week but I am still unable to post or collect rewards to send a pm to mods trying to fix the problem. Jack never responds to the pm's in the administration thread and I had a couple guys contact Wayne about the situation and his response is he can't do anything about it.
GG i'll try to explain nyk situation to you as far as i know right now. his ban ended last sunday afternoon but dr jack told me nyk would still be on post review and his pm's/rewards would stay shutoff since he abused them by sending me and many others here nasty messages. now i personally want to thank you for all the info you have posted while nyk has been banned and beyond. from when you came to cm you became an instant favorite of mine 12 years ago and that has never changed. a lot of it was because you were such a hard worker and how much you contributed. i also thought your rants were so funny whether you tried to be or not. however there were some other members who resented when i would say nice things to you since they were negative posters and thought i was kissing your ass and riding your dick. and when you came back here this past summer and i was happy and knew you could go on great runs in mlb nyk really turned on me since he was no fan of yours. even wishing you good luck and urging you on pissed him off. i know that you have had to leave cm a few times over the past 12 years for different reasons but had you been here without any interruptions you would probably have twice as many posts as i do . ultimately dr jack will have to handle the nyk situation but due to his wife being very sick he has much greater priorities to deal with than nyk right now.
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  #641  
Old 11-09-2018, 01:52 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vikesfan View Post
GG i'll try to explain nyk situation to you as far as i know right now. his ban ended last sunday afternoon but dr jack told me nyk would still be on post review and his pm's/rewards would stay shutoff since he abused them by sending me and many others here nasty messages. now i personally want to thank you for all the info you have posted while nyk has been banned and beyond. from when you came to cm you became an instant favorite of mine 12 years ago and that has never changed. a lot of it was because you were such a hard worker and how much you contributed. i also thought your rants were so funny whether you tried to be or not. however there were some other members who resented when i would say nice things to you since they were negative posters and thought i was kissing your ass and riding your dick. and when you came back here this past summer and i was happy and knew you could go on great runs in mlb nyk really turned on me since he was no fan of yours. even wishing you good luck and urging you on pissed him off. i know that you have had to leave cm a few times over the past 12 years for different reasons but had you been here without any interruptions you would probably have twice as many posts as i do . ultimately dr jack will have to handle the nyk situation but due to his wife being very sick he has much greater priorities to deal with than nyk right now.

My brother... I believe you. I get it. I know he disliked me. I have no idea why. We had similar styles and opinions and hated the scumbag touts as I did. I could never figure out the hate....But at least he was upfront about it at times and not a sneaky backstabber like others in this forum. I also never saw him openly cheering for multiple people to lose and cheer against a trend or a system that people are on just to see someone be wrong. I think the alcohol has alot to due with his issue. Not an excuse, but it is a definite factor in his behavior.

I also dont give a shit who hates me and what ppl say. These are strangers in a forum that I will never meet. Their opinions mean shit to me. I care more about one bead of sweat on my taint than therse "haters" opinions. They are not my friends. I dont know them,.. fuck it, fuck them. Sometime we all get caught up in a discussion and get fired up and go to far.

There are different types of ppl on these forums.

Contributors and moochers. Jealous haters that are happy to see ppl lose and great guys that are happy if you help win them some money. This shit is not easy. I take time away from my capping, my lunch break, my sexy time (Borat voice) with my females. Ive run out of time putting my own personal plays in because ive been posting info here.

Weather or not NYK is an asshole and that he was a prick to you and I is one thing but it dosent take away from his contributions. He is in the VERY SMALL majority of members who actually posts useful information to try to help. None of us have to.

I 1000 % support you in the fact that he should not have talked to you in that manner. You are pretty much the nicest guy on the entire forum and definitely did not deserve that. I just feel like he did his time / served his time and should be allowed to post now.

Bottom line. I feel is you have an All Star player you dont keep him on the bench the entire season. He had a well deserved suspension, now lets let him do his thing and return to the starting lineup. He is too valuable to waste on the bench. Just one mans opinion

By the way I appreciate all the nice things you said and have said about me. Thank you for being a supporter and a friend. It is very much appreciated and I thank you.

Last edited by goldengreek; 11-09-2018 at 01:58 AM.
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  #642  
Old 11-09-2018, 10:17 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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Hey guys. I am new here. Have been out of handicapping for many years. Now retired and bored. I found this site and the information here is enormous and the good cappers abundant. My biggest problem is sometimes I suffer from 'Paralysis by Analysis".

sorry about the disagreements and such. Hope they can be resolved reasonably. I don't know NYK, but his insight is priceless. Hope he can find a way back. Anyway, just wanted to let whomever know, I really appreciate this site.
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  #643  
Old 11-09-2018, 10:17 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Early college hoops game

Ncaab ATS early game.

E Mich 1H under 24-5.
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  #644  
Old 11-09-2018, 12:17 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Some more trends ...BASKETBALLL

NCAAB ATS:

Oakland 3-15.
Tenn 1H non-conf 18-4.
Buffalo 1H road 11-1.
Northern Kentucky 1H Nov 17-2.
Air Force 1H UNDER road 19-4.
Pitt UNDER 23-5.
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  #645  
Old 11-09-2018, 12:20 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
Some more trends ...BASKETBALLL

NCAAB ATS:

Oakland 3-15.
Tenn 1H non-conf 18-4.
Buffalo 1H road 11-1.
Northern Kentucky 1H Nov 17-2.
Air Force 1H UNDER road 19-4.
Pitt UNDER 23-5.
Missed one...NCAAB ATS: Temple Nov 10-1-1.
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  #646  
Old 11-09-2018, 12:43 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Fresno State-Boise State Betting Preview: Are the Broncos Being Undervalued?

Action Network Staff
2 hours ago

NCAAF
Fresno State-Boise State Betting Odds, Pick
Odds: Fresno State -2.5
Over/Under: 53.5
Time: 10:15 p.m ET
TV: ESPN2
Fresno State has been on quite the run, vaulting itself into the College Football Playoff Top 25 with an 8-1 record. The Bulldogs are also 8-1 against the spread, which is tied for the best mark in the country.

Boise State is an underdog on its home field for the first time since 2001 and needs a win to keep pace with Utah State in the Mountain West’s Mountain Division.

Fresno About to Step up in Class
By Steve Petrella

Fresno State has played one of the weakest schedules in the country. And while the defense is really, really good, its metrics (and therefore the line on this game) are probably a bit inflated.

The Bulldogs have played only four units ranked in the top half of FBS in S&P+ on offense or defense:

Minnesota Defense (62)
Toledo Offense (19)
Hawaii Offense (54)
Wyoming Defense (42)
Here are their performances against each of the four. They’re well-below Fresno’s season averages, and these games are included in those averages.




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Still, the Bulldogs Are Blowing Everyone out
By Petrella

The sign of a good team isn’t always wins and losses; it’s what you do in those wins and losses. And Fresno State has looked dominant against bad competition.

Per S&P+, the Bulldogs had a postgame win expectancy of at least 97% in every game but a loss to Minnesota (60%). That means if you gave each team an equal amount of luck and played the game 100 times, Fresno State would win at least 97 out of 100.

The adjusted scoring margins tell the same story. With the exception of Minnesota, Fresno deserved to win all its games by at least 18 points.



But Is Boise Undervalued Here?
By Collin Wilson
What is not to love about Boise State in this spot against Fresno State?

Fresno is riding high, ranked No. 7 in S&P+ and 23rd in the College Football Playoff rankings, but The Action Network’s power ratings disagree with both, ranking the Bulldogs 31st with a projected spread of -1 against Boise State.

Fresno State has a strength of schedule rank of 128th in FBS, with its toughest competition coming in a loss to Minnesota and a win over Toledo. Boise State is 34th in S&P+ and 40th in our power ratings, and will serve as the toughest test for the Bulldogs all season.

Boise Defense Should Stop the Run
By Wilson

The Boise State defense should feast against the Fresno State rushing attack.

The Bulldogs rank 113th in opportunity rate and 90th in stuff rate, indicating they have problems in short yardage gains or keeping defenders out of their backfield. Meanwhile the Broncos’ defense ranks ranks 21st and 33rd in those respective categories.

Fresno will rely on the arm of quarterback Marcus McMaryion, who boasts a 20-to-3 interception-to-touchdown ratio. Boise should play decent pass defense — the Broncos rank 56th in passing downs — but a defensive line sack rate of second in the nation will keep McMaryion on the run.

Grab the +3 on the Broncos if it’s still out there. Boise has won 10 of the past 12 games straight-up in this series.

Collin’s Pick: Boise State +2.5/3



Boise State a Home Underdog for First Time Since 2001
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By Stuckey

I agree that’s the cap here. Fresno won’t be able to do much on the ground, forcing the offense into passing situations, and Boise can get to the quarterback. The Bulldogs’ defensive (and overall) metrics look great across the board, but they really haven’t played anybody all season.

Neither team has great special teams, but Boise has one of the worst units in the nation. The Broncos’ punting is especially horrid, and that’s where Fresno really excels, ranking No. 1 in the nation in punt efficiency.

If Boise can’t get to the QB and move the ball through the air, Fresno will dominate field position on the back (or should I say leg) of its advantages in the punting game.

Trends to Know
By John Ewing

The Broncos are 31-31-1 against the spread under head coach Bryan Harsin, but only 11-19 ATS at home.

By Evan Abrams

Boise State has not been listed as a home underdog on the blue turf since Sept. 8, 2001 against Washington State. That was 111 home games ago. It was also the Broncos’ first season in the WAC after transitioning from the Big West. Boise State lost that game, 41-20.

Since then, the Broncos are 105-6 SU at home.

Since 2005, Boise State has received less than 50% spread tickets at home only 17 times. Boise State is 16-1 SU, but just 8-9 ATS due to the fact that 13 of the 17 games listed the Broncos as double-digit favorites.

Boise State survived at home against BYU last week (21-16) as a 11.5-point favorite, avoiding two home losses in three games for the Broncos.

Over the past decade, when Boise State plays at home the week after failing to cover the spread on the blue turf, the Broncos are only 2-6 ATS. But only two of those eight games had Boise listed as less than a double-digit favorite.
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Old 11-09-2018, 12:44 PM
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Boise State a Home Underdog for First Time Since 2001

Danny Donahue
2 hours ago

NCAAF
Boise State is currently a 3-point home underdog for Friday night's matchup with Fresno State (10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
Should Boise State close as the underdog, it'll be the first time the Broncos are underdogs at home since 2001.
Over the past two decades, Boise State has been as dominant of a home team as there’s been in college football.

Since its loss to Washington State in September of 2001, the Broncos have gone 105-6 at Albertsons Stadium, the best home record in the country over that span.



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Why would I pick that loss in particular as the starting point? Because it was the last time that Boise State was an underdog at home … until this week.

According to the latest odds at Pinnacle, the Broncos are getting three points against visiting Fresno State Friday night.

Boise State has consistently been a powerhouse in the Mountain West Conference since it joined in 2011, finishing with double-digit wins in all but two of those seasons.

This year, however, the most impressive team in the conference has undoubtedly been Fresno State.

The Bulldogs were ranked 23rd in the country in Tuesday night’s latest College Football Playoff rankings release.

They’re tied with Mississippi State as the second-best scoring defense in the country, giving up only 12.3 points per game, and they enter Friday night’s matchup with only one loss to Boise State’s two.

It’ll be interesting to see if bettors move this line off the key number before kickoff, but barring any injury news, we can be just about certain that Boise State’s 111-game run as a favorite at home is coming to an end
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Old 11-09-2018, 12:44 PM
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Louisville-Syracuse Betting Preview: When Value Isn’t Valuable

Action Network Staff
Nov 09, 2018 11:10 PM EST

NCAAF
Louisville-Syracuse Betting Odds, Pick
Odds: Syracuse -21
Over/Under: 68.5
Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Syracuse is entering rare air. Not only are the Orange ranked in the College Football Playoff Top 25 for the first time ever — they’re No. 13.

And not only is ‘Cuse favored against Louisville on Friday — it’s laying 21 points, the largest favorite it has been in a conference game since 2001 against Rutgers.

Louisville couldn’t be moving in a more opposite direction. The Cardinals have covered just once this season (a loss to Florida State) and are missing the spread by 17.2 points per game — the worst mark in the country by a touchdown.

Syracuse has also never received this kind of public support. As of Thursday evening, 86% of bettors were backing the Orange. Their highest is 85% against Buffalo in 2005 (see live betting data here).

How Inflated Is This Line?
By Collin Wilson

The point spread is purposely inflated against Louisville after it gave up 237 points in its past four games. The Action Network power ratings and S&P+ both make the game Syracuse -16.5, which has led to a little bit of contrarian betting on the Cardinals.

Syracuse might have some overlook to Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium next week, and its College Football Playoff ranking of 13th may provide a bit of pressure the Orange have not experienced before.

A second order win total differential of -1.4 indicates Syracuse has had plenty of help getting to 7-2 overall on the year. The Orange have been one of the luckier teams in the country, according to that measure.

Specifically last week the Orange had a 26% postgame win expectancy in a victory against Wake Forest. They were outgained and benefited from three Wake turnovers.

But Should You Bite the Bullet and Bet Louisville?
By Steve Petrella

As Collin illustrated, Louisville is the bet to make here based on value and Syracuse playing a little over its head. Trouble is, football isn’t played in a vacuum like that. In a single game situation, there’s zero guarantee a team in disarray holds up that value.

Reports out of Louisville indicate as many as 20 players have requested a transfer this fall. The Cardinals have fallen short of expectations moreso than anyone in the country. They’re an absolute trainwreck.



So to answer the question I posed in the larger text above: No. Don’t take Louisville just based on value.

Let me put it this way. Will you be more upset if you bet Louisville and it doesn’t cover, or if you stay away and the Cardinals do cover? For me, it’s the former.

Trends to Know
By Evan Abrams

Syracuse has not been favored by three touchdowns or more against a conference opponent since October 6, 2001 against Rutgers, when the Orange were a part of the Big East.

Syracuse’s head coach at the time was Paul Pasqualoni and their QB was R.J. Anderson. The Orange have played 128 conference games since last being listed as a three-touchdown favorite in-conference.

By John Ewing

The Orange have been favorites of three or more touchdown in 11 games against non-conference teams since that game vs. Rutgers, going 11-0 straight up and 6-4-1 ATS.

Bobby Petrino is on the hotseat in Louisville with the Cardinals 0-6 in conference play and 2-7 overall. History doesn’t suggest Louisville will cover on Friday.

As an underdog of more than a touchdown, Petrino’s teams are 1-15 straight up and 4-12 ATS, including bowl games.
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Old 11-09-2018, 12:47 PM
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@Bet_Labs: The Orange have been favorites of three or more touchdown in 11 games since 2005, going 11-0 straight up and 6-4-1 ATS.

@CuseFootball -21 vs. Lou...
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:02 PM
kane kane is online now
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In their last 29 games as an underdog, Michigan St is 21-8 ATS winning 16 of those games straight up

Duke is 2-12 ATS their last 14 games as an ACC favorite
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