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  #51  
Old 08-31-2018, 05:48 PM
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CGTechnology


SDSU-STAN

Cardinal open -14, reach 15, dial down to 13.5, now 14

"Sharps and public are on Stanford and the Over (total 49/49.5). Ideal result as of now would be a Stanford win and SDSU cover in a low-scoring affair."


ARMY-DUKE

Duke opened -11, got bet up to 14, back to 13 midweek, now 14 again today

"On pointspread, 5X more Duke money on account, while 58% of over-the-counter money is on Army."

"Pros vs. Joes, sharps on Duke and public leaning toward Army. Ideal result would be a Duke win and an Army cover."


COLO-COLO ST

Buffaloes open -5.5, reach -7.5, now -7.

"Sharps laying points and betting Over. Public laying points and split on total (now 65.5). Ideal result would be a CSU cover with a low-scoring game."
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  #52  
Old 08-31-2018, 05:54 PM
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Steam moves

[238] E Michigan
[240] Nevada
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  #53  
Old 08-31-2018, 08:24 PM
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UNLV is 6-1 ATS as a dog of more than 21 points under Tony Sanchez. Included in that are covers at Michigan, Ohio state and UCLA. USC went 0-5 at home last year as a double digit favorite.

South Carolina is 0-3 ATS under Will Muschamp as 20-point favorites, all 3 games came before a matchup with Clemson or an SEC rival. Gamecocks have Georgia next week.

The last time LSU opened the season as an underdog, the Tigers were a 3.5 point dog vs Oregon in Arlington. LSU won that game 40-27. Since covering the final 5 games of 2016 and the first three of 2017, the Canes are 2-7 ATS.

Chris Petersen was great as a dog at Boise, but since beating USC in the Coliseum as a 17-point dog in 2015, Washington is 0-4 ATS as a dog, with 3 of the 4 losses coming by double digits.

Oregon is 3-8 ATS as a double digit favorite since Marcus Mariota departed Eugene. Ducks are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games.

UNC has failed to cover their first game vs an FBS opponent all six years under Larry Fedora. Tar Heels lost outright at home to Cal last year as a 13 point favorite.

Middle Tennessee has been an underdog of a FG or less each of the last 3 years vs Vanderbilt and hasn’t covered any of them, losing by 4, 23 and 22.

FIU was 4-0 ATS as a home dog last year and has covered 6 straight as a home dog dating back to 2016, winning 5 of those games outright.

UMass is 10-2 ATS in last 12 games as a road dog. Went 4-0 last year as a road dog, losing at Tennessee, Miss State and Temple by a combined 23 points as at least a 14 point dog in each game. They also won at BYU as a 3.5 point dog.
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  #54  
Old 08-31-2018, 08:42 PM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books


72% on Wisconsin -36.5 vs. WKY
69% on Stanford -14 vs. SDSU
67% on Colorado -7 vs. CSU
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  #55  
Old 08-31-2018, 11:58 PM
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Action Network Contributing Books


Bets sharps are making for Week 1 of the college football season.

Saturday, Sept. 1

Washington State at Wyoming
3:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Wyoming +1

When this game opened, Washington State was as much as a four-point favorite at BetOnline. Now some books have this line at a pick’em as a result of all the sharp money that’s come in on Wyoming, although the consensus line seems to be Washington State -1.

Our software has picked up on five steam moves on the Cowboys, which explains the drastic line movement.

They’ve also received 73% of the money wagered on this game despite only 58% of total bets, which means that bigger-money bets are coming on Wyoming.

Since sharps bet more than the large majority of casual bettors, it’s safe to assume that the higher money percentage is another indication of sharp action.



UNLV at USC
4 p.m ET

Sharp angle: Over 63.5

Only 45% of bettors have taken the over in this one, yet the total has risen from 60 to 63.5. Why would that be? You guessed it: Because respected bettors (sharps) are part of that 45%.

Sure enough, a look at the money percentages helps to confirm just that.

Those 45% of bets on the over make up 66% of the total money being wagered on this total, indicating that bigger — likely sharper — bets are taking the over.

We’ve also tracked two steam moves on the over, meaning that on at least two occasions, a single bet caused the line to rise across the entire market.



Boise State at Troy
6 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Troy +10

Similar to the UNLV-USC total, this line has moved away the side getting the majority of betting tickets — this is called reverse line movement — making it easy to locate the sharp side.

Troy opened at +10.5, and has received only 46% of bets to this point. If anything, you’d think this line would move to +11, but the opposite has happened.

The Trojans have received 65% of the money wagered on this game, drawn three steam moves and are now listed at +10.



Louisiana Tech at South Alabama
7 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: South Alabama +10

Generally, when a team gets more than 80% of bets in one of the least-bet games on a Saturday slate, books will adjust the line simply to decrease their liability on that team. But that hasn’t been the case with this game.

Louisiana Tech has attracted 83% of bets to this point, but this line won’t budge from -10 … because sharps are keeping it there.

Despite the fact that only 17% of bets have landed on South Alabama, the Jags have drawn 53% of dollars wagered on this game — not to mention the four steam moves that also have come in on them.



Louisville vs. Alabama
8 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over 62

This total opened all the way down at 53.5 at some books. Clearly it’s come up quite a bit from that number, and sharp bettors are to thank for that.

Like in the case of the WSU-Wyoming matchup, the sharp play is the more popular bet in this game — 64% of bettors are behind the over. The reason we can definitively call it the sharp side has to do with the actual dollar percentage, as well as the number of steam moves it’s drawn.

Seventy-five percent of dollars are on the over, which again means that bigger, likely sharper, wagers are behind it.

We’ve also tracked five steam moves on the over, meaning there were at least five times that wagers moved this line across the entire market.

And I promise Bookmakers aren’t adjusting the over/under just for the hell of it. These market-wide line moves are coming from sharp bettors.
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  #56  
Old 09-01-2018, 12:26 AM
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MGM Race and Sports took a $30,000 wager on Ohio State tonight, bumping the Buckeyes up to -40.5
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  #57  
Old 09-01-2018, 12:47 PM
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The Greek Sportsbook

Sharp Action

Houston
Nebraska
MASS-BC over
KN ST-ILL over
Texas State
Northern Illinois
Texas
SMU-NT under
MAR-MIA over
MTSU
BYU
UNLV
CIN-UCLA over
MIS-TT over
CC-SC over
Oregon
LOU-ALA over
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  #58  
Old 09-01-2018, 12:48 PM
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The Greek Sportsbook

Biggest Liabilities

Houston
Northern Illinois
Texas
MTSU
BYU
Oregon
LOU-ALA over
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  #59  
Old 09-01-2018, 12:54 PM
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  #60  
Old 09-01-2018, 01:32 PM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books


73% on Penn St (-23)
70% on West Virginia (-9)
65% on Cal (-7)
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  #61  
Old 09-01-2018, 03:07 PM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books


76% on Penn St (-23)
70% on WVU (-9.5)
66% on Cal (-7)
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  #62  
Old 09-01-2018, 03:12 PM
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BetOnline

65% of cash on Auburn vs. Washington +1.5
70% of cash on WVU vs. Tennessee +9.5
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  #63  
Old 09-01-2018, 06:25 PM
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LV SuperBook

Michigan (-2.5, 46) at Notre Dame

71% of the money is on the Wolverines (includes spread bets and parlays)
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  #64  
Old 09-01-2018, 06:36 PM
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Caesars Palace Books

Michigan (-2.5 (-120) ... 46) at Notre Dame

63% of bets, 65% of money on the Wolverines
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  #65  
Old 09-01-2018, 06:39 PM
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Caesars Palace Books

Louisville vs. Alabama (-24, 60.5)

75% of bets, 75% of money on Bama

"Gonna need Louisville for a big decision."
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  #66  
Old 09-01-2018, 06:42 PM
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BetOnline

69% of cash on Wolverines -2.5

"House needs Irish huge"
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  #67  
Old 09-01-2018, 07:10 PM
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In 2006, Michigan beat a ranked Notre Dame team in South Bend, which marked the Wolverines’ last true road win against a team ranked in the AP Top 25.

They are an 0-16 in such games since.
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  #68  
Old 09-01-2018, 07:29 PM
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South Point LV

Sharp money on Louisville
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  #69  
Old 09-01-2018, 07:38 PM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books

Notre Dame-Michigan is easily the most bet game of the day, more than twice the action of any other on the board.

Wolverines currently -2.5/-3 and getting 55% of tickets.
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  #70  
Old 09-01-2018, 07:53 PM
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South Point LV

Sharp money on Akron
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  #71  
Old 09-01-2018, 08:18 PM
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South Point LV

"The money is all over BYU"
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  #72  
Old 09-02-2018, 11:53 AM
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Saturday's Best and Worst Conferences ATS


SEC: 8-4
MWC: 5-2
Independent: 3-1

AAC: 2-6
Big 12: 2-6
Pac-12: 2-6-1
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  #73  
Old 09-02-2018, 11:55 AM
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Sports Insights numbers ...


NCAAF Saturday ATS Results


Underdogs: 33-28-1

Visitors: 29-27-1

<50% Bets: 34-26-1

<40% Bets: 23-12-1

<30% Bets: 13-4

<20% Bets: 3-1
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  #74  
Old 09-02-2018, 11:57 AM
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2018 Biggest Moneyline Upsets


Hawaii +610 at Colo St
Cincinnati +455 at UCLA
Villanova +450 at Temple
Hawaii +435 vs. Navy


Teams closing +400 or higher on the moneyline have gone 4-44 for -24.48 units.
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  #75  
Old 09-02-2018, 12:23 PM
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Over bettors have started the 2018 season 49-36 (58%), +9.37 units.
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