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  #76  
Old 09-02-2018, 01:10 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Sunday insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill in Vegas, and John Lukasik, sportsbook director at The Linq, Cromwell and Flamingo Las Vegas.


No. 8 Miami vs. No. 24 Louisiana State – Open: -3; Move: -3.5

“All the money is on Miami,” Bogdanovich said of activity for this 7:30 p.m. ET neutral-site kickoff in Arlington, Texas. “I don’t think it’s sharp play. But this is a good matchup.”

Lukasik said his shops, part of Caesars’ sportsbook properties, also opened at 3 and went to 3.5.

“It was bouncing between 3 and 3.5 in the middle of the week, and we’re at 3.5 now,” he said. “The pointspread liability is on Miami. We’ve taken the majority of action on Miami.”

On the total, Caesars books haven’t moved off the opener of 47, while William Hill has been at 47.5 since Wednesday, after opening at 48.
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  #77  
Old 09-02-2018, 02:57 PM
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BetOnline

Line movement alert ... LSU now getting 3.5 tonight thanks to sharp cash on Miami -3 (-115 or better)
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  #78  
Old 09-02-2018, 04:52 PM
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The Greek Sportsbok

Sharp Action

Miami (small)
Over
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  #79  
Old 09-02-2018, 04:57 PM
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Early Market Update ... MIA vs LSU


TIX-COUNT = MIAMI 1.5 to 1 ... UNDER 1.5 to 1

$$$-BET = MIAMI 2.5 to 1 ... TOTAL Even


Still early as majority of $$$ gets bet very late especially on stand alone Prime-Time games.
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  #80  
Old 09-02-2018, 05:02 PM
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Will Hill betting trends from their 107 Nevada Books + Nevada Mobile Sports app as of 4:30PM ET


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  #81  
Old 09-02-2018, 06:06 PM
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CGTechnology ... on MIA-LSU

Opens Miami -2.5, gets to -4, back to -3 this afternoon

“4X more LSU money on account, and 3X more Miami $ money over the counter. Clear Pros vs. Joe’s brewing here ... Moneyline running fairly even, with lower volume.”

Total from 47 to 48.5

“Sharps on Over, public on Under. Ideal result of would be a low-scoring LSU cover.”
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  #82  
Old 09-02-2018, 06:39 PM
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Action Network Contributing Books


60% of spread tickets are on Miami as 3-point favorites
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  #83  
Old 09-02-2018, 07:06 PM
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Sharp money also on Over 47, moving number to 47.5
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  #84  
Old 09-02-2018, 07:14 PM
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63% of the cash on the Canes (-3.5)
55% on Under (47.5)
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  #85  
Old 09-02-2018, 07:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
UNLV is 6-1 ATS as a dog of more than 21 points under Tony Sanchez. Included in that are covers at Michigan, Ohio state and UCLA. USC went 0-5 at home last year as a double digit favorite.

South Carolina is 0-3 ATS under Will Muschamp as 20-point favorites, all 3 games came before a matchup with Clemson or an SEC rival. Gamecocks have Georgia next week.

The last time LSU opened the season as an underdog, the Tigers were a 3.5 point dog vs Oregon in Arlington. LSU won that game 40-27. Since covering the final 5 games of 2016 and the first three of 2017, the Canes are 2-7 ATS.

Chris Petersen was great as a dog at Boise, but since beating USC in the Coliseum as a 17-point dog in 2015, Washington is 0-4 ATS as a dog, with 3 of the 4 losses coming by double digits.

Oregon is 3-8 ATS as a double digit favorite since Marcus Mariota departed Eugene. Ducks are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games.

UNC has failed to cover their first game vs an FBS opponent all six years under Larry Fedora. Tar Heels lost outright at home to Cal last year as a 13 point favorite.

Middle Tennessee has been an underdog of a FG or less each of the last 3 years vs Vanderbilt and hasn’t covered any of them, losing by 4, 23 and 22.

FIU was 4-0 ATS as a home dog last year and has covered 6 straight as a home dog dating back to 2016, winning 5 of those games outright.

UMass is 10-2 ATS in last 12 games as a road dog. Went 4-0 last year as a road dog, losing at Tennessee, Miss State and Temple by a combined 23 points as at least a 14 point dog in each game. They also won at BYU as a 3.5 point dog.
*****TRACKING*****
UNLV is 6-1 ATS as a dog of more than 21 points under Tony Sanchez. Included in that are covers at Michigan, Ohio state and UCLA. USC went 0-5 at home last year as a double digit favorite. UNLV +24 WIN

South Carolina is 0-3 ATS under Will Muschamp as 20-point favorites, all 3 games came before a matchup with Clemson or an SEC rival. Gamecocks have Georgia next week. Coastal Carolina +30.5 LOSS

The last time LSU opened the season as an underdog, the Tigers were a 3.5 point dog vs Oregon in Arlington. LSU won that game 40-27. Since covering the final 5 games of 2016 and the first three of 2017, the Canes are 2-7 ATS.

Chris Petersen was great as a dog at Boise, but since beating USC in the Coliseum as a 17-point dog in 2015, Washington is 0-4 ATS as a dog, with 3 of the 4 losses coming by double digits. Auburn -1 WIN

Oregon is 3-8 ATS as a double digit favorite since Marcus Mariota departed Eugene. Ducks are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games. Bowling Green +34 PUSH

UNC has failed to cover their first game vs an FBS opponent all six years under Larry Fedora. Tar Heels lost outright at home to Cal last year as a 13 point favorite. California -7 PUSH

Middle Tennessee has been an underdog of a FG or less each of the last 3 years vs Vanderbilt and hasn’t covered any of them, losing by 4, 23 and 22.
Vandy -3 WIN

FIU was 4-0 ATS as a home dog last year and has covered 6 straight as a home dog dating back to 2016, winning 5 of those games outright.
FIU +13 WIN

UMass is 10-2 ATS in last 12 games as a road dog. Went 4-0 last year as a road dog, losing at Tennessee, Miss State and Temple by a combined 23 points as at least a 14 point dog in each game. They also won at BYU as a 3.5 point dog. Umass +18 Loss


4-2-1 with LSU pending

Thanks for posting Knight
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  #86  
Old 09-02-2018, 07:36 PM
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FINAL MARKET UPDATE

TIX-COUNT = MIAMI 2 to 1 ... UNDER 2.5 to 1

$$$-BET = MIAMI 5 to 1 ... UNDER 4 to 1

One-Sided Exposure on Favorite and Under for Books
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  #87  
Old 09-03-2018, 04:30 PM
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The Greek Sportsbook

Early money on FSU, some recent money on Virginia Tech
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  #88  
Old 09-03-2018, 04:37 PM
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Since becoming a head coach in 2010, Willie Taggart is the most profitable regular-season coach in college football, going 59-36-1 (62%) against the spread for +19.95 units.

However, he has disappointed when bettors expect his teams to cover. When the line moves a half point or more in Taggart’s direction his teams are 23-22-1 ATS.
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  #89  
Old 09-03-2018, 05:48 PM
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Monday insights from Chuck Esposito, sportsbook director for Sunset Station in Vegas, and Tony DiTommaso, risk manager for CG Technology, also in Vegas ...


No. 17 Virginia Tech Hokies at No. 19 Florida State Seminoles – Open: -7; Move: -6.5; Move: -7; Move: -7.5; Move: -7

“Good two-way action and similar ticket counts,” Esposito said, noting that today, the line has gone from 7 to 7.5, then back to 7. “Nothing indicating that the game will move (much more) right now. The big key here will be how Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois looks after returning from the leg injury he suffered in last year’s opener against Alabama, which caused him to miss the entire season.

“This game will also feature a new era for Florida State, without Jimbo Fisher. Willie Taggart will be looking to get off to a good start.”

CG sportsbooks, including at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas in Strip, opened this game a couple weeks earlier at Florida State -5, on May 23, and the line currently sits at 7. CG needs the Hokies a little, with a modest five-figure decision on the game.

“The sharps pushed it to 7, which is where it’s been for a while,” DiTommaso said.
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  #90  
Old 09-03-2018, 06:14 PM
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Saban names Tua Tagovailoa as the Bama -36½ starter for Week 2 vs Arkansas State
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  #91  
Old 09-03-2018, 06:40 PM
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BetOnline

Sharp money on FSU -6.5 or better
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  #92  
Old 09-03-2018, 06:42 PM
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LV SuperBook

Va Tech at Florida St (-7, 54)

Approximately 60% of the money bet is on the Noles ... Twice as many bets on Noles
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  #93  
Old 09-03-2018, 07:51 PM
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57% of cash on FSU (-7.5)
72% on Over 54
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  #94  
Old 09-04-2018, 01:47 PM
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Favorites are 44-44-1 against the spread after the first full week of the season.
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  #95  
Old 09-04-2018, 02:24 PM
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"Duffel Bag Boy" is back at William Hill ... he has already bet two big parlays this week


Parlay 1: $50,000 on Ohio State, Oklahoma and Boise State to cover.

Parlay 2: $60,000 on Ohio State and Oklahoma to cover.
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  #96  
Old 09-04-2018, 03:12 PM
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Betting records by conference:

SEC
SU: 13-1
ATS: 10-3-1
O/U: 5-3.


Pac-12
SU: 8-4
ATS: 5-6-1
O/U: 5-6


Big-12
SU: 6-3
ATS: 2-7
O/U: 3-1


Big-10
SU: 10-1
ATS: 5-6
O/U: 6-5


ACC
SU: 9-3
ATS: 5-6-1
O/U: 5-2
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  #97  
Old 09-04-2018, 07:01 PM
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Biggest Risers and Fallers after Week 1


Updated Title Odds (via Westgate)

Auburn 15-1 to 8-1
ND 30-1 to 15-1
UCF 300-1 to 100-1

Mich 10-1 to 25-1
FSU 40-1 to 100-1
Texas 30-1 to 50-1
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  #98  
Old 09-06-2018, 01:39 PM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books

NCAAF Week 2 Lopsided Tickets

82% on Ohio St (-35)
81% on Alabama (-36)
79% on Utah (-10)
78% on App St (-14)
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  #99  
Old 09-07-2018, 04:11 PM
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One of the most underrated injuries this week could be Wyoming RB Nico Evans who has 279 yards and three TD's already being out vs Missouri.

This line has already moved 2 points and will keep moving. Wyoming will have trouble scoring this week without him.
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  #100  
Old 09-07-2018, 04:16 PM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books

Friday Action Report

80% of spread bets are on TCU -22.5

80% of total bets are on over 59
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