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  #101  
Old 09-07-2018, 04:20 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Friday Market Moves


TCU has jumped from -17.5 all the way up to -22.5, passing over the key number of 21. With 76% of bets on the Horned Frogs, though, much of the cause for this move is simply public betting. Smart money is coming in on both sides, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see some SMU buyback if the line were to hit 23.

What sharps are in agreement on, however, is the total. It’s dropped from 64 to 58.5 at Bookmaker behind only 28% of bets as smart money is pounding the under. Those 28% of bets account for 44% of dollars wagered on the total, confirming that sharps are behind the line move.
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  #102  
Old 09-07-2018, 04:25 PM
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The over/under for the TCU-SMU game is down to 58.5. In the last decade, when the over/under drops more than a full point for TCU under Gary Patterson, the under is 24-17 (+5.8 units), going under the total by a full field goal per game.

TCU has tilted to the under on the road with Patterson over the last decade, too, going 31-23 (+6.3 units), including 10-3 in the Horned Frogs’ last 13 road games. They’ve gone Under the total by 12.1 PPG.
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  #103  
Old 09-07-2018, 05:23 PM
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Pros Betting Penn State-Pittsburgh, 4 Other Games


Arizona at Houston
12 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over 71

Only 40% of bettors have been brave enough to take the over in what’s become Week 2’s highest total. We say “become” because it didn’t open that way.

Sharps have made this the highest total of the week by hammering the over, causing books to adjust their line from 66 to 71.

Despite attracting only 40% of bettors, this over has drawn 54% of dollars wagered. Since sharp bettors are betting more than the average casual bettors, we can use that discrepancy to say that sharps are definitely on the over.

We’ve also tracked four steam moves on the over, including two at the current number of 71, indicating that wiseguys still see value after the five-point line move.



Liberty at Army
12 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Liberty +8

Liberty has been one of the biggest movers of the week, coming down four points from Bookmaker’s opening number of +12. The Flames have done that despite getting a slight minority of bets, as their 47% backing has accounted for 56% of money wagered.

They’ve also been on the receiving end of a steam move, indicating that on at least one occasion, sharp action was the cause of market-wide line movement.



Utah at Northern Illinois
7:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Northern Illinois +10

This line opened Utah -11 at Pinnacle, but has since been bet down to -10. It’s certainly not the public causing that drop, however, as 77% are behind the Utes.

Even though fewer than a quarter of bets are going NIU’s way, those bets have accounted for 36% of dollars wagered — and we know what that means. Smart money has also triggered four steam moves on the Huskies contributing to the line move.



Penn State at Pittsburgh
8 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under 55

Unlike in the previous three cases, there isn’t as much of a clear public side on this total. In fact, if anything, sharps may be on the same side as the public here.

The under has attracted 54% of bets, accounting for 72% of dollars wagered, indicating that bigger — probably sharper — bets are among them. Sure enough, three steam moves have hit the under, all of which have caused this total fall by a field goal, from 58 to 55.



UConn at Boise State
10:15 p.m.

Sharp angle: Uconn +31.5

The Huskies suffered a 39-point blowout loss at home last week at the hands of UCF, so the public has naturally faded them on the road in Week 2. Only 35% of bettors still have faith in UConn, but those bettors have accounted for 60% of dollars wagered.

Connecticut has also drawn three steam moves, meaning that on three separate occasions, wagers from sharp bettors caused the entire market to drop this line.

Overall, it’s fallen 2.5 points from its opener of +34 as a result of the smart money on UConn.
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  #104  
Old 09-07-2018, 05:29 PM
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The Greek Sportsbook

Friday Sharp Action

TCU / SMU Under (small)
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  #105  
Old 09-07-2018, 05:40 PM
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Biggest liability to CGTechnology Sportsbooks tonight


TCU
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  #106  
Old 09-07-2018, 05:52 PM
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CGTechnology breakdown from above post on TCU-SMU tonight

Horned Frogs open -21, now 23.5

"On pointspread, 94% of all dollars on TCU laying the points. Took a low 5-figure bet on TCU -22."

Bettors taking Over on total (59) at almost 2/1 rate

"Have not seen any respected money show up yet, just public money on TCU. Ideal result is an SMU cover and a lower-scoring game."
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  #107  
Old 09-07-2018, 07:08 PM
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BetOnline

House huge SMU and Under fans tonight

78% of $$ on TCU -23.5 and 78% on the Over (59)
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  #108  
Old 09-07-2018, 07:41 PM
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Sports Insights Contributing Books

TCU at SMU


Spread: 74% on TCU -23.5

ML: 70% on TCU -2000

O/U: 77% on Over 60
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  #109  
Old 09-07-2018, 08:58 PM
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Betting trends from William Hill's 100+ Sportsbooks in Nevada and New Jersey



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  #110  
Old 09-07-2018, 09:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
"Duffel Bag Boy" is back at William Hill ... he has already bet two big parlays this week


Parlay 1: $50,000 on Ohio State, Oklahoma and Boise State to cover.

Parlay 2: $60,000 on Ohio State and Oklahoma to cover.

"Duffel Bag Boy" just hit MGM Race and Sports for 2 straight pointspread bets, instead of parlays.

$77,000 on Ohio State, and another $77,000 on Oklahoma.

Earlier in week, MGM books took $35,000 three-teamer of OKLA/OHIOST/BOISE from same bettor.

MGM Race and Sports Scott Shelton ... "He's laying 100 points in that parlay, if you can wrap your head around that."

Same bettor also three-teamed Ohio State, Oklahoma and the L.A. Rams for $10,000. "His first venture into the pros."
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  #111  
Old 09-07-2018, 11:20 PM
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The Greek Sportsbook

Early Sharp Action

Liberty
HOU-AZ over
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  #112  
Old 09-08-2018, 12:42 AM
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The last five times Bill Snyder has been a home dog of at least eight points, the Wildcats have covered all five, with four being one score games. Since Snyder returned to K-St in 2009, the Wildcats are 35-19-1 ATS with 22 outright wins as an underdog.


New Mexico is 11-4 ATS in its past 15 games as a double-digit underdog. Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS as a favorite of at least 30 points under Paul Chryst, having failed to cover four straight times in this spot.


Michigan State is 1-8 with five outright losses as a road favorite since 2015. Arizona State won outright in three of its four games as a home underdog last season (3-1 ATS).


South Carolina was 7-1 ATS as a dog last year, winning five of those games outright. Dating back to the bowl in 2016, the Gamecocks have covered 8 of their last 9 games as a dog.


In five games as an dog away from home under Clay Helton, USC is 1-4 both ATS and SU. The win came in 2016 at UW. In two games last year in this spot, USC lost by 35 at Notre Dame and by 17 in the Cotton Bowl vs Ohio State. USC is 1-8 ATS as a dog under Helton.


Michigan is 1-7 ATS, dropping five straight, in its last eight games as a 20+point favorite. Western Michigan is 4-0 ATS in its past four games as an underdog of at least 20 points.


After losing to Maryland last year in the season-opener, Texas beat San Jose State 56-0 as a 25.5-point favorite. Texas is a 23-point favorite vs Tulsa this week.


Hawaii has failed to cover each of its last ten games as a favorite. It’s lost four of those games outright.


In its last 13 games as a 28+ point favorite in FBS non-conference games, Alabama is just 1-10-2 ATS.


In its last 14 games as an underdog of four points or fewer, Duke is 12-2 against the number and have won ten of those games outright. This includes a 41-17 win as 1.5-point underdogs over Northwestern last season.


Houston is 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight vs Power Five opponents, including a win as a favorite last year in Tucson


Fresno State was a perfect 7-0 last year as an underdog under Jeff Tedford, winning four of those games outright
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  #113  
Old 09-08-2018, 12:27 PM
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Thx for the info knight
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  #114  
Old 09-08-2018, 01:15 PM
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The Greek Sportsbook

Sharp Action

Liberty
App St
App ST-CHA under
EMU-PUR under
Air Force
ODU
FIU-ODU under
AZ-HOU over
Kansas
Memphis
GA-SC over
IOWA ST-IOWA under
CLEM-A&M under
UVA-IU under
Arkansas
PSU-PITT under
Stanford
MSU-ASU under
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  #115  
Old 09-08-2018, 01:23 PM
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Under Nick Saban, Alabama as big favorites (4 or more TDs):

vs. SEC: 8-3 ATS
Non-conference games: 8-17 ATS

70% of tickets on Bama
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  #116  
Old 09-08-2018, 01:37 PM
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In windy (13 MPH or stronger) college football games, the under is 464-338-12 (58%) since 2005.

This system has been profitable in 12 of last 13 years.

-Navy-Memphis
-Mizzou-Wyoming
-Central Mich-Kansas
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  #117  
Old 09-08-2018, 01:44 PM
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Steam moves

338) UNDER UTEP-UNLV
340) UNDER MEM-NAVY
366) UNDER CLE-A&M
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  #118  
Old 09-08-2018, 02:13 PM
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CGTechnology ... on CLEM-TEX A&M

Tigers open -11.5, now 12.5

88% of all dollars on Clemson laying points

"Ideal result is an A&M cover."

Total also down to 52, after opening at 54.5, with big majority of Total bettors on Under.
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  #119  
Old 09-08-2018, 02:14 PM
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CGTechnology ... on USC-STAN

Opened Stanford -4, got to 6, now 5.5

On point spread, 62% of all dollars on Cardinal.

No Sharp money has shown up yet, mostly public money and market moves.

"Ideal result is a USC cover"
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  #120  
Old 09-08-2018, 02:16 PM
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MGM Race and Sports ... on MEM-NAVY

Memphis opens -4, bet up to -7 by Friday

"Just regular sharp play on Memphis."
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  #121  
Old 09-08-2018, 02:18 PM
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MGM Race and Sports ... on CLEM-TEXAM

“Good 2-way action"

Ticket count in favor of A&M, but money relatively even. But 90% of the money on this game is gonna come in later today.

Tigers steady at -12.5
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  #122  
Old 09-08-2018, 02:20 PM
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MGM Race and Sports ... on GEO-SCAR

Bulldogs open -9, spend most of week bouncing between 9.5 and 10

“We took a sizable wager on South Carolina +10 from someone we respect, a six-figure wager ... So we went to 9.5 on that, and the sharps started to buy that back. And there’s still a lot of public money on Georgia.”
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  #123  
Old 09-08-2018, 02:22 PM
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Sunset Station ... on USC-STAN

Cardinal open -3.5, get bet up to 6, now 5.5

"Early action and ticket counts clearly favor the Cardinal. Number climbed mainly because Stanford is at home and it’s first true road test for USC freshman QB JT Daniels."
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  #124  
Old 09-08-2018, 02:23 PM
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Sunset Station ... on CLEM-TEXAM

Clemson opens -13, down to 11.5 early today

"Some early action on A&M, but ticket counts favor the Tigers. Huge number against Jimbo Fisher-coached team. Important note: Clemson just 1-4 ATS in last 5 road openers."
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  #125  
Old 09-08-2018, 06:25 PM
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Steam move

Marshall
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