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  #1  
Old 08-24-2018, 02:13 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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2018 Ov/Un plays

Same format as always. I'll post the games that fit the parameters I use to isolate spots. Then I'll post the ones I buy.
(I post them all for record keeping and in case anyone else is looking for an opinion on a particular game.)

Ov/Un 2016:
23-15, 60%, +6.6 units, plus 1.2 from teaser for +7.8 banked, and a single NFL play shared,
all plays 25-15, 63%, +8.8 units.

Ov/Un 2017:
30-30, dropped 3 units in juice.

Big difference in the two years?
Played for a lot of fun/action last year, 33% increase in # of buys over 2016.
Wise words on sports betting, from one of the most respected Bookmakers in Vegas:
"My disadvantage is I HAVE to put up a line on every game.
The player's advantage is he does NOT have to bet on every game.
The more games he bets on, the more he puts the odds back in my favor."

This year's type of play? Hell if I know.
Less games may equal a better chance at success, but my livelihood makes me money. I bet sports for fun and the challenge of beating the numbers, with the goal of a profit at the end.
As always, I'll take it week by week.

Week One:
Wyoming/N Mex St Ov 48/46/45
Army/Duke Ov 48/46'
SD St/Stan Ov 53/50'/49'
Tex St/Rutgers Un 48'/47
Mid Tenn St/Vandy Ov 55/54'
SMU/N Tex Un 73/71
Louis/Bama 55'/59
Mia/LSU Ov 45/48

Unders traditionally stronger.

Only buys I have in pocket thus far:
S Car tm total Ov 7 (heavy juice now at -180 but I floated it again.)
Tx St/Rutgers Un 47

Will update when/if I buy anything else.

I wish GOOD LUCK to all the 'Mallers this season. Have fun, bet smart.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 08-24-2018 at 02:16 PM.
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Old 09-04-2018, 01:36 PM
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Recap:

Hit the only game I recommended a buy on, Under with Tx St/Rutgers.

Season wins update: Got one of the seven I need for S Car Ov 7. (My first goal is to recoup investment at 7, next goal win it with 8.) Easy one, had it as a W in my handicapping, tough one this week, ten point dog to Georgia, one of the L's I marked.)

Spots are disappointing this week, no Unders to choose from.
Buf/Temple Ov 51'
Geo St/NC St Ov 52'/54
Iowa St/Iowa Ov 49
Fresno St/Minn Ov 47'
Cin/Miami-Oh Ov 50

These played out as expected last week, as they have over the years, Unders did well at 2-0, Overs at .500 with a 3-3 record. I usually look to buy Unders, fade Overs. No Unders to choose from this week, so no buys yet. Maybe if all the early spots go Over, I'll play the statistical edge and fade one of the late ones. I'll update if I buy anything.

Spots 5-3

Record 1-0

Good luck with your plays this week . . .
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Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-04-2018 at 01:38 PM.
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Old 09-11-2018, 11:49 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: No plays recommended last week.

Season win update: S Car lost to Georgia as expected. Should get another W on the march to 7/8, at home vs Marshall this week.

Ov/Un spots this week:
Boise St/ Ok St Un 66/63'
W Kent/Louisville Ov 57'

From last week: "I usually look to buy Unders, fade Overs." Anyone who has read these posts through the years knows that's the strategy, and though I didn't recommend any buys last week because there were no Unders to choose from, it was a great week to fade Overs as they went 1-4. Hope someone played them or at least laid off buying the Over on them if it was a game you were looking at.

Screwed for a second week in a row as there are no Unders to choose from, just one, and only one Over.
I like choice, I like picking the ones that grade out the strongest. Don't want to miss out on plays two weeks in a row, but I don't like the Boise St spot at all. Their two games thus far saw totals of 76 and 69, and now they get Ok St who is #8 in the country in scoring, putting up 56 PPG. Boise is at #5 with 59 PPG. "Danger Will Robinson, danger."

Ov/Un spots now at 6-7, Ov 4-7, Un 2-0.
My record on buys is 1-0.

No buys now, will update when I do.

Good luck with your plays this week . . .
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Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-11-2018 at 11:51 AM.
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Old 09-14-2018, 10:51 AM
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Thanks for the like, FF.

Just bought the Un 57' at 5dimes for the fade on W Kent/Lou.

Good luck to the Mall this weekend . . .

Update: at 7:49, a few minutes after I bought, 5dimes followed the rest of the board and dropped the #.
So, I jumped back in here to note that I'll use 56' for recording here, to be fair, as that is now the common # and anyone seeing this and wanting to buy can easily get that #; most bettors likely cannot get 57.
Not always feasible, but I try to keep the board up on my screen, just in case a game I am considering but have not yet bought starts to see movement. Just happened to be updating #'s in my logbook when I saw the 57' dropping to 57/56', saw 5dimes still had not moved, grabbed it.
Luck and timing are a big part of the fight.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-14-2018 at 11:01 AM.
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Old 09-14-2018, 11:37 AM
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I've had my eye on another game this weekend, G Tech/Pitt.
I think this one plays out like Tech's last game vs S Fla, with a lot of points scored.
Pitt O stunk last week, scoring only 6, they'll do better vs Tech (can't do much worse, eh?)

I don't mind missing out on the best # (opened at 51) but don't like having to lay 4 more as it's at 54'/55 now, so I will surrender to the Siren's Song lure of the teaser. I laid standard odds at -110 for a two teamer, 6' pts, using this game at Over 48 and the other spot open.

As always, good luck to you this weekend . . .

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-14-2018 at 11:39 AM.
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Old 09-18-2018, 02:56 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: Split, 1-1.
Lost as G Tech had no rhythm on offense, won with the Un in W Kent/Louisville.

Season win update: S Car canceled due to the storm.

Ov/Un spots this week:
S Al/Mem Un 69/69'
Char/U Mass Un 61/58'
Az/Ore St Un 75/75'

Spots were 1-1 last week, W Kent barely stayed Un (reads as 66/63 in post above; mistake, reversed, actual was 63/65/66/65'). Louisville game was an easy fade on the Over 57' as they only put up 37.

Ov/Un spots now at 7-8, Ov 4-8, Un 3-0.

My record on buys is 2-1.

Was in the mood to fade an Over or two this week after it paid off last week, not to mention the 8-4 67% trend thus far this season, but none to choose from. Will buy at least one of the above Unders after some more stat work to try and grade which may be the strongest spot.
Will post when I buy.

Good luck with your plays this week . . .

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-18-2018 at 02:57 PM.
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Old 09-19-2018, 11:08 PM
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I WAS CAPPING THAT UMASS/CHARLOTTE GAME, ICOULDNT FIND OUT IF THEIR STARTING QB IS PLAYING THIS WEEK, BUT I SEEN SOME GOOD % STATS TO SUPPORT THE UNDER

Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.



As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CHARLOTTE games 60.6% of the time since 1992. (20-13)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CHARLOTTE games 56.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (13-10)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in MASSACHUSETTS games 59.2% of the time since 1992. (42-29)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in MASSACHUSETTS games 70.8% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (17-7)
Edge=Under

GL 151 UMASS 0-3 I LIKE THEM BUT NOT IF QB IS OUT AGAIN BEST OF LUCK 151
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Old 09-21-2018, 07:48 PM
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I feel like Steve Martin in The Jerk:
"I got my first reply of the season, I'm SOMEBODY now!"

ONE51 - THANKS for dropping by, and for the info. The UMASS spot was the one I've had circled all week. Holding off still, will post if I buy.

I did buy Az/Ore St Un 75'.

Good luck to you and the rest of the Mall this weekend . . .
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Old 09-25-2018, 01:04 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: Won with Az/Ore St Under.

Season win update: Picked up W #2 with S Carolina on the march to 7-8.

Ov/Un spots this week:

U Mass/Ohio Un 69'
Tex/K St Ov 48
Ore St/Az St Un 63'
Ore/Cal Ov 59/58
Fl St/Louisville Ov 46/47
Rice/ W Forest Un 67
BYU/Wash Ov 44/46

Spots were 1-2 last week. Season record Ov 4-8 Un 4-2.

My record on buys: 3-1.

A little luck mixed with gut feel steered me off my early week lean to play the U Mass game, and go with the Az/Ore St spot instead.

This season is playing out as it has in the past, fade Overs, play Unders, both now at the % I use as my Grail, 67%. If it continues, gonna make some nice $ this season.

Plenty to choose from this week.
Not shy to go back to the well with the same play as last week, using Ore St Un again. No feel for which way the line will move so waiting at this point, will post when/if I buy it.

Leery of the U Mass spot, same as last week, instinct served me well to lay off; same feeling here.

Love fading the Overs, but Tex and Wash games, the opening # seems a little low to begin with to me.

I have nothing in pocket yet, will post when I buy.

As always, good luck to the Mall this weekend . . .
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Old 09-25-2018, 01:06 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: Won with Az St/Ore St Under.

Season win update: Pickled up W #2 with S Carolina on the march to 7-8.

Ov/Un spots this week:

U Mass/Ohio Un 69'
Tex/K St Ov 48
Ore St/Az St Un 63'
Ore/Cal Ov 59/58
Fla St/Louisville Ov 46/47
Rice/ W Forest Un 67
BYU/Wash Ov 44/46

Spots were 1-2 last week. Season record Ov 4-8 Un 4-2.

My record on buys: 3-1.

A little luck mixed with gut feel steered me off my early week lean to play the U Mass game, and go with Az/Ore St spot instead.

This season is playing out as it has in the past, fade Overs, play Unders, both now at the % I use as my Grail, 67%. If it continues, gonna make some nice $ this season.

Plenty to choose from this week.
Not shy to go back to the well with the same play as last week, using Ore St Un again. No feel for which way the line will move so waiting at this point, will post when/if I buy it.

Leery of the U Mass spot, same as last week, instinct served me well to lay off; same feeling here.

Love fading the Overs, but Tex and Wash games, the opening # seems a little low to begin with to me.

I have nothing in pocket yet, will post when I buy.

As always, good luck to the Mall this weekend . . .

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-25-2018 at 01:07 PM.
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  #11  
Old 09-26-2018, 04:05 AM
Dale City Dale City is offline
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Good luck Mr.Nascar
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Old 09-26-2018, 01:29 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Thank you, Dale, and the same to you.

I have no strong feel at all for which way this Ore St/Az St line is going to move. I know I want in on it, I like the matchup, I like the Unders in these spots, I like that it fits a subset I track on these spots that's 3-1 this year.
I just pocketed it at Un 63', thinking higher probability it drops than rises.

Good luck to the Mall this weekend . . .
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Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 09-26-2018 at 01:31 PM.
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Old 10-02-2018, 02:52 PM
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Recap: Missed with Az St game Under.

Season win update: S Car lost to Kentucky, one I was looking for a W on.

Ov/Un spots this week:
Syr/Pitt Ov 59
Mia-Oh/Akron Ov 47'
Wash St/Ore St Un 64'
Ind/Ohio St Ov 62/64

Ugly week last week as Overs split and Unders dropped all three. After the two early Unders went Over, I felt good with Under in the late play, %'s said I was on the right side but, no.

Spots are 10-14 overall, Overs at 6-10, Unders 4-5.

My record on buys is 3-2.

Going to open it up a bit this week.
A lot easier to choose when these plays hold form.
I'm going to go back and check my log books for the past 8-9 years and see when was the last time the Unders dipped below 500. Not feeling good about taking Unders right now, but fading the Overs is still on the radar.

Good luck to the Mall this week . . .

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-02-2018 at 02:54 PM.
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Old 10-04-2018, 11:35 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Haven't pulled the trigger on any of the Ov/Un's yet, but while looking at the Syr/Pit game I started liking the Orange, and now that the # has dropped from -6 to -3 with only an extra nickel of juice at 5dimes I bought it.

The O is popping, only question is how much did hard-fought near-miss vs Clem cost them? I think they shake it off, and take advantage of a Pitt D that gave up 45, 38 and 51 to C Fla, N Car, and Penn St.

Only decent showing by Pitt D was vs G Tech and I watched that game, more a case of poor play by Georgia Tech O than stellar D from Pitt; Tech's option O was out of synch, couldn't find their rhythm.

I can see the blowout scores by C Fla and Penn St (and Syr O isn't too far behind C Fla and Penn St, PPG) but 38 to N Car? That's more than double what they've scored (avg) in their other three games.

With Pitt giving up 200 per on the ground, I think Syracuse's run game can exploit that, get a lead, then control the tempo and clock late in the game, so I laid the three.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-04-2018 at 11:40 AM.
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Old 10-06-2018, 06:20 PM
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Scoreboard will show Syracuse lost in OT, but they really blew it in the fourth quarter.
I just bought Rice -1.
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Old 10-12-2018, 11:16 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: Syracuse had the 4th quarter lead as expected, but didn't use play clock properly, got caught and lost in OT.
Dropped the Rice play, too.
(Mitch Hedberg -"I like rice. Rice is great for when you're really hungry and want two thousand of something."

Season win recap: S Car won their third game on the march to seven. Need them to resched that game missed due to the hurricane or my bet might get wiped out. Don't like them at home this week vs Tx A&M. Still have @Fla and @Clem ahead.

Ov/Un spots this week:
Minn/Ohio St Un 58/59'
Missouri/Bama Un 74'/73'/74'
Rutgers/Maryland Un 55/52

Spots went 3-1 last week, Ov 3-0, Un 0-1.
Season record 13-15 Ov 9-10 Un 4-6.

With both plays hitting approx .500 I have no edge to work with, fading Overs or riding Unders. One line of thinking is Unders are under-performing so play on them as it should correct itself based on results from years past, but I don't like any of the three this week. And with last week's 0-2 I'm now a game under .500 so I'm going to choose my next buys carefully.
My record 3-4.

Will post any buys I recommend.
Good luck with your plays this week...
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Old 10-12-2018, 12:53 PM
Dale City Dale City is offline
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Good luck Nascar
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Old 10-13-2018, 12:26 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Thanks, Dale.

Ole Miss has been whuppin' up on every team that is not 'Bama or LSU.
Ark's D is nowhere close to either of those two.
I like that the rain has knocked at least 3 points off the total in the game because I don't think it's going to matter with these two D's. With a top five O in passing yards vs a passing yard D ranked at 111, I laid the 6' and took the Over 65.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-13-2018 at 12:32 PM.
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Old 10-16-2018, 12:53 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: Hit with the Over in Miss/Ark, missed when Miss won but couldn't cover the 6'.

Note - whenever it rains, most people look to the Under, but with some teams it's a plus for scoring, not a negative, AND if you wait while the total drops you can get a nice # on the Over. It was pouring in Ark, and there was a nice drop of 4 pts on the total in a game that saw 70 scored.

Season win recap: S Car lost a spot I marked as a W pre-season. In trouble now, need that Marshall reschedule.

Ov/Un spots this week:
Geo St/Ark St Ov 53/56'
E Mich/Ball St Ov 52'/49'
Mem/Missouri Un 74
B Green/Ohio Un 69'
Hou/Navy Ov 69

Quote from last week: "Unders are under-performing so play on them as it should correct itself based on results from years past, but..."

Should have stuck with the %'s as the Unders went 3-0. Especially the Bama game, after giving up 31 last week you KNOW they were going to be a mission to shut down their opponent, and, they only gave up 10.

Spots now 16-16, Ov 9-10, Un 7-6 (corrected prev record, missed an L).

My record:4-5

I bought the Un 69' in B Green/Ohio and though I missed the best # on it I faded the E Mich/Ball St game spot, bought Un 49'.

Good luck with your plays this week . . .

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-16-2018 at 12:55 PM.
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Old 10-16-2018, 02:35 PM
Dale City Dale City is offline
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Good luck Nascar
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Old 10-17-2018, 03:30 PM
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Thanks, Dale.

Adding a play, same thought as last week: only teams to beat Ole Miss this year are 'Bama and LSU.
And Auburn isn't comparable to either of those two.

Georgia beat Auburn behind QB Fitgerald's 195 rushing yards (195!) and then Tenn beat them through the air, with Guarantano hitting 21 of 32 for 328 yards and two TD's. Ta'amu can beat them either way, run or pass, and I expect he'll get at least 300 yards passing again this week. After coming back from being down 13 pts in the 3rd quarter on the road last week, he should be primed, psyched and confident for this tougher matchup vs Auburn at home.
And I'm getting 4 points? I'm in.

Mississippi +4

Also watching the total. If it drops another point or two I'm hitting it Over, and Ole Miss team total too if the # is right.
Will post if I recommend a buy.
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Old 10-18-2018, 11:02 AM
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Correction. Wrong total on Hou/Navy, had Haw/Nev total there instead, should read:
Hou/Navy Ov 61'/60
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Old 10-20-2018, 12:45 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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New Ov/Un play I'm looking at, based on ratings differential, only 5-3 on season but 4-1 on Overs, and biggest differential on the board is G South/N Mex St,
I'm on Ov 53'.

Buys from midweek:
Miss +4
B Green/Ohio Un 69'
E Mich/Ball Un 49'

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-20-2018 at 12:47 PM.
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Old 10-23-2018, 01:32 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: 2-2 last week but a bit of good news, maybe. The ratings differential play I noted in the post above,
G Southern/New Mex St Ov 53' won easily with a total of 79 scored. That's not the good news though. I had a little free time yesterday and ran the same #'s for NFL. It's 9-3-1, 3-0 Ov and 6-3-1 Un. Wish I ran the #'s earlier and used on Sunday. I'll track through the remainder of the year, maybe it'll turn into a couple units for the bankroll.

This week's Ov/Un spots from the usual play:
Wisc/N'West Un 50/51'
Iowa/Penn St Un 54/52
Rice/N Tex Ov 54/55
Tex A&M/Miss St Ov 45
S Diego St/Nev Ov 47'
Boise St/A Force Ov 58
NC St/Syr Ov 61/63/64/63'/64

These spots were 4-1 last week, no help if they hover at .500 though.
20-17 overall now, Ov 12-10, Un 8-7.

My record on buys is 6-7.

I look to fade Overs, but I really like the NC St/Syr spot, don't care that I missed the best #, I bought it Over 64.
And as long as I'm breaking away from the norm I bought the A&M/Miss St game Over too, at 45.

Buys:
NC St/Syr Ov 64
Tex A&M/Miss St Ov 45

I'll be back with any plays that qualify for the rankings differentials spot after I run the numbers.

Good luck with your play this week...

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-23-2018 at 01:39 PM.
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Old 10-25-2018, 04:12 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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As promised, back with the Ov/Un differential plays.

Wyoming/Col St Ov 45'
NC St/Syr Un 66
Ore St/Col St Un 62'
Kentucky/Missouri Un 56'
K St/Ok Ov 64

This play calls for an Under in NC St/Syr, a game I like and bought Over. And the other Over I bought, Tex A&M, just missed qualifying as an Under by 1 pt. Obviously would prefer they had the same outcome but I like my two buys.

Biggest differential overall is Kentucky game, biggest diff in an Over (same play I used last week) is Wyoming.
I bought the Ov in the Cowboy game.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-25-2018 at 04:20 PM.
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