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  #26  
Old 10-31-2018, 01:25 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: Won 2 of 3, I'll take it, gets me back to .500 and in position to bank a few to end the season on the right side of the dirt.

The Wyoming Over 45', was 0-0 end of first quarter. Trouble, right?
Was 3-0 at the half, BIG trouble, right?
Nah, it's college. And . . . 52 in the second half.
Not how I prefer to do it, but like I said, I'll take it.

Got 92 in the Syr game, but former #16 Tex A&M failed to score on two late, fourth quarter drives playing against a Miss St drop back/prevent D, only managed 13 pts and fell just a FG shy of the 45 needed in S Miss game.

My record is 8-8 now.

I'm tracking two plays, to keep things simple I'll just use Play #1 (the one I've been tracking for years) and Play #2.

Play #1 this week:

Penn St/Mich Un 52'
App St/Coastal Car Un 57
Ok/Tex Tech Un 78
K St/TCU Ov 49/46
U Conn/Tulsa Ov 58
LA Tech/Miss St Ov 44/46/48

These spots went 5-2 last week. Season now 25-19, Ov 16-11 Un 9-8.

I don't like to use a game with a team that didn't win for me last week, but I like the LA Tech/Miss St spot, even though the best # is long gone. Overs are doing well this year, and when they go 2 pts or > higher than the opener they are 6-3. Gonna need most of the 48 from Miss St, but I bought the Ov at 48 before it climbs any higher.

Back with spots in Play #2 after I do the numbers.

Good luck to all this week . . .

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 10-31-2018 at 01:33 PM.
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  #27  
Old 10-31-2018, 02:11 PM
Dale City Dale City is online now
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Good luck Nascar
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  #28  
Old 11-09-2018, 11:04 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Thanks, Dale.

Recap: Pushed with the Ov 48 in Miss St.
I said I would need most of the pts from Miss St but needed more than I thought, lucky to get a push as they won 45-3.
Could have done better, and worse, opened 44, climbed quickly, a quicker buy would have won, but then again, it was 49 game day so could have lost if I bought later.

Two weeks in a row now there have been no options to bet in Play #2; disappointing.

Play #1 was 3-2-1 last week, overall 28-21 now, 17-12 on Overs, 11-9 Unders.
This week's choices:

UCLA/Az St Un 59/60/61'
Liberty/Virg Un 57'/60'
Maryland/Ind Un 55
Ok St/Ok Un 76/79
Ore St/Stan Un 58'/61

So, what do we have? First, all Unders. Second, all Unders, most of which have totals that are rising, so no sense buying today if you like any of them. I don't. Season coming to an end, I'm in position to finish with a profit but don't like any choices, yet. Will update when I buy.

Record: 8-8

Good luck with your plays this weekend.
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  #29  
Old 11-10-2018, 10:59 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Not too many weeks left, gonna have some fun (I think) today trying to figure out which large spreads will be true massacres with no mercy shown.

Blowout #1: Mich Tm Total Ov 42.
Lay the 38 or try for over 42? At 42, I only have to score as many vs Rutgers (33 PPG allowed) as I did vs Penn St (24 PPG)? The only reason the 33 PPG my homeboys from Piscataway surrender isn't higher is because no one has to score against them - they avg just 15 PPG on O. Patterson should have them around 30 by halftime, just need second stringers to score 2 TD's in the second half. Style points for Wolverines today? I'm in.

Blowout #2: Utah St -31.
I'd buy this at - 41. Aggie D should hold Spartans to 13 or <, and O will put up plenty. Looking for it to be similar to last year, when the Aggies won by 51.

Buys
Mich Team Total Ov 42
Utah St -31

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-10-2018 at 11:01 AM.
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  #30  
Old 11-15-2018, 01:34 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap - pushed with the Mich team total, won with Utah St.
Back in black at 9-8 with my buys, something to build on over the final few weeks.

Made a good call on play #1: "I don't like any of them" as they go 1-4.
Overall 29-25, Ov 17-12, Un 12-13.

Play#1 this week:
Duke/Clem Ov 57'
Oh St/Maryland Un 58'
UL Monroe/Ark St Ov 66/68'
Ind/Mich Un 53'
Az St/Ore Un 63/64

I plan on buying a couple of these (incl. Duke/Clem Over), just watching the #'s, will post when I buy.
Also going to do what I did last week for fun, try and isolate which of the big favs is going to crush their opponent. Liking Utah St again, after watching them continue to throw passes well into the 4th quarter last week when they were already up about 50. Col D is as bad as San Jose St (last week's opponent) so I'll lay the 28.

Will be back to post any spots in play # 2 if there are any this week.

As always, good luck to the mallers this weekend . . .

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-15-2018 at 01:37 PM.
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  #31  
Old 11-16-2018, 09:54 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Play #2 has four Unders that qualify: Ore St/Wash, Miss/Van, Ark/Miss St, Lib/Aub. There are two Overs: Tx Tech/K St, N'West/Minn. My chart has this at 8-6 overall, 6-1 Ov and 2-5 Under, so I'll look to play Overs, fade Unders.

I bought the N'West/Minn game Over 47.
Right move buying Utah St yesterday, 28' most houses now.
Definitely buying Duke/Clem Over, will count it as a buy for my record even if I don't get back in with an update. Just watching the line, 57' right now, I think it goes up but I'll delay the buy a little longer and keep my screen up just in case we can shake off that hook.

Buys
Utah St -28
N'West/Minn Ov 47

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-16-2018 at 09:56 AM.
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  #32  
Old 11-16-2018, 10:42 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Correction - I left the week of 10/20 off chart for play #2 (the problem with keeping data in two different charts, one in the office, one at home.)
Actual #'s: 13-8, 7-3 Ov, 6-5 Un; so, Unders not as healthy a fade as noted above.

Season win update: They had it, it was right there in front of them, all they had to do was close it out, but S Car blew a 17 pt late 3rd quarter lead, got outscored 21-0. With Clemson, Chattanooga and Akron left on the schedule I'll get my "push at worst case." Of my other two season win bets shared in that post, Seattle Un 8 looks okay, and Jay Ajai Under total yards is already a winner. Hawks sitting at 5-5, with 6 left, should lose at Car, will lose vs. KC, need one more L vs Minn, SF (2 games) or Az to get the worst case push.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-16-2018 at 10:44 AM.
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  #33  
Old 11-19-2018, 05:46 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: One step up, two steps back. Last week I got over .500 by a game, after an 0-3 Saturday I'm under .500 by two games. How off was my play on a BIG FAV looking at a blow out? As a 28 pt fav Utah St was the loser straight up when the final whistle blew. But a Col St last second TD was reversed by the replay booth, letting them escape with an undeserved win.

Kickin' myself in the ass for not posting as intended this morning, recommending a jump on the Over in Col St/Air Force as soon as it came out, knowing it would rise. Got busy, didn't post, didn't buy, opened 58, lost 2 pts already, bought it anyway at 60' before it goes even higher.

Back with more in the morning...

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-19-2018 at 05:49 PM.
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  #34  
Old 11-20-2018, 12:25 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Play # 1 has a lot of games that fit this week.
Overs: Miss St/Miss, UAB/Md Tenn St, Col/Cal, Nev/UNLV, WF/Duke, Ark St/Tx St
Unders: Neb/Iowa, Hou/Mem, Ok/W Virg, Marsh/Fla Int, N Mex St/Lib, Az St/Az, ND/USC.

These are 31-28 overall, 17-14 Ov, 14-14 Un.

I'd like to try the Ov in the Miss/Miss St game, but that State defense?
In the seven games they've won no one has put up 14 or >.
And they're going to win this game.
Pts scored against are 6, 10, 10, 9, 13, 3, 6. That's 8 pts per.
Sure, Ole Miss has a better offense than every one of those teams, but for this to go over the total Miss is slated to have to put up better than 24, and I don't like the odds of that happening against this D; Miss is too reliant on the pass and that plays into State's strength.

As I was writing this, the screen lit up and the game total just climbed from 58 to 59. I haven't used a teaser this season, going to play one here for some Turkey Day action/fun, taking State down to -5 and dropping the total to 53. The Rebels will be down in the latter part of the game, which means Ta'amu will force his throws, hopefully, a pick or two seals the deal.

Buys:
Col St/AF Ov 60'
6 pt teaser Miss St -5 & Ov 53, even odds

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-20-2018 at 12:32 PM.
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  #35  
Old 11-22-2018, 07:59 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Miss can't score against this Miss St defense, and with the way State is controlling the clock with their ground game they're not going to get many chances in the second half. Adding Miss team total Under 10'.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-22-2018 at 08:01 PM.
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  #36  
Old 11-23-2018, 10:44 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: %'s say college games on Thanksgiving tend Over, both games yesterday saw totals rise, AF/Col St went from 57 to 64, Miss game from 58 to 61. I got good #'s on both by buying early, 60' on AF/Col St & teased Miss down to 53, and . . . both crashed and burned. (Even got the 2nd half pick from Ta'amu I expected, leading to a TD 2-3 plays later, but still not enough to get over the total.)

On the plus side, after watching the first half of the game, I saw the Rebels could not score, and stopped in here to post a second half adjustment, team total Un 10', and they scored . . . zero.
1-2 day, 10-13 season, running out of time to show a profit.

Play #2 has a spot today, Ov in C Mich/Tol, and "day-after piggin out on Thanksgiving" games show a slight % to Overs last few years, but I don't trust C Mich to score. The little Chipmunks put up 10, 10, 7 & 13 their last 4 games. They quit WAY back in Oct. I took team total Un 19.
And I think Tol blows them out at home, I'm gonna buy the -19, too, what the hell, season coming to a close, may as well enjoy a day of yelling at my TV and have some fun/action on a bunch of games.

Good luck with your plays today . . .

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-23-2018 at 10:47 AM.
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  #37  
Old 11-24-2018, 10:58 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: Hit both plays yesterday as Toledo blew out the Chipmunks, and held them Under 19 (held them to zero late into the 4th quarter when the coach put in scrubs.)
Back to one game under .500 at 12-13.

From Play #2:
Bought Tex Tech/Bay Un 64

Other plays in Play #2:
Unders: Ark St/ Tex St, Mary/Penn St, Col/Cal, Ill/Nwest
Over: Kent/Louisville

Will post if I buy any of them.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-24-2018 at 11:05 AM.
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  #38  
Old 11-24-2018, 11:25 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Overs have been good to me in Play #2, so I bought Kent/Louisville.
It has a whopping 20 pt differential and any time I see 19 or > in my charts it's won, 4-0 (1-0 Ov, 3-0 Un.) Grades out almost as strong as Geo South back on 10/20, so what the hell, I'm in at Ov 52'.
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  #39  
Old 11-24-2018, 02:12 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Adding Maryland/Penn St Ov 51.
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  #40  
Old 11-30-2018, 01:17 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: 2-1 last time in as Kentucky/Louisville went Over, Tex Tech/Baylor stayed Under. Missed with Over in Mary/Penn St.

Fought back to .500, 14-14, now let's see if I can close strong to finish in the black.

Play #1 was 5-8 last week. I didn't use any of them.
Overall 36-36 now, 20-17 Ov, 16-19 Under; little use as buys or fades.
This week:
Fresno St/Boise St Ov 51/53
Alabama/Geo Un 63/63'
I think the Bama game # is too high, but at 16-19, Unders sucked this year.

Play #2 was 6-1.
I bought Kent/Louis Over, based on a differential of 19 or > being 4-0, as noted in my 10/23 post. Went through my charts and double checked the entire season, found there were actually 9 of these and all won, 2 Overs, the rest Unders. No help this year but part of data diving is finding something that works, and tracking it from year to year. This play will definitely be in my charts come next season.

Unfortunately, didn't see it in time but Ill/N'West was Under with a diff of 19, and didn't buy it. Tex Tech/Baylor was 19 too, bought and recommended it here, but not because of the 19 or > stat (again, didn't see it in time), I just liked the spot.

Bad news - zero spots in Play #2 this week. Hopefully there will be a few spots in the bowls. I'm buying every one if there is.

Last week of the regular season and I have nothing. Yet.
Good luck with your play this week.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 11-30-2018 at 01:19 PM.
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  #41  
Old 11-30-2018, 01:37 PM
fat-freddie fat-freddie is online now
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Like you here man, can't get even a feel on the Tide-Ga. game, Bama has put a hell of a lot of points on the board this year but last year these 2 played into OT and only put up 59. Want to play the over but I can see 2 Def. coming to life here, damn if I could only get the Sunday paper now Good luck if you play this week Mr. Nascar
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  #42  
Old 12-01-2018, 10:45 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Fat Freddie,
Thanks for stopping by. I still can't see anything that makes me lean heavy either way on the 'Bama game. I want in on it though, not sure what - side or total - when in doubt, drop the bet size and just lay a little TV action for fun.

Just bought Clem/Pitt Ov 52' before the buy-back begins. It opened 57', Under $ came in, now those buyers are looking at a decent middle of 5, so a buy-back is expected.

Update - and, as I write this, the board is lighting up, a couple 52' left but 53 & 53' coming in.
From memory, Pitt has screwed me twice (?) on Overs this season, against Syracuse for sure, but I like this spot.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 12-01-2018 at 10:55 AM.
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