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  #1  
Old 12-03-2018, 01:40 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Exclamation Bowl Game Betting Info

SEC teams are 58.7% ATS in Bowl Games since 2006.

If they're contrarian (receiving less than 50% of spread bets) they're even better ... 25-11 ATS (69.4%) ... 36.6% ROI
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Old 12-03-2018, 01:44 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Sportsbooks are expecting Oklahoma-Alabama (Dec. 29 at 8 p.m. ET, ESPN) to be an extremely high-scoring affair, evidenced by the current over/under of 79.

According to Bet Labs, a closing total of 79 would set a record for the highest over/under in the five-year history of the College Football Playoff.

The current record comes from the 2015 matchup between Florida State and Oregon that included a total of 74. The Ducks won, 59-20, pushing that game over.

In very early betting, 52% of tickets and 75% of dollars wagered on the total at Sports Insights Contributing Books have played the over.
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Old 12-04-2018, 10:08 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Biggest Mismatches ATS



Cotton Bowl (College Football Playoff Semifinal)

Clemson: Dabo Swinney (8-4-0, +3.62 units)
Notre Dame: Brian Kelly (3-7-0, -4.09 units)
Spread: CLEM -11.5


Alamo Bowl

Iowa State: Matt Campbell (2-2-0 -0.08u)
Washington State: Mike Leach (1-7-0 -6.12u)
Spread: WSU -6.5


Rose Bowl Game

Ohio State: Urban Meyer (9-3-0, +5.70u)
Washington: Chris Petersen (6-6-0, -0.51u)
Spread: OSU -4.5


Camping World Bowl

Syracuse: Dino Babers (1-0-0, +1.00u)
West Virginia: Dana Holgersson (1-5-0, -4.07u)
Spread: WVU -6.5


Sun Bowl

Stanford: David Shaw (5-2-0, +2.80u)
Pittsburgh: Pat Narduzzi (0-2-0, -2.00u)
Spread: STAN -6.5


Boca Raton Bowl

UAB: Bill Clark (0-1-0, -1.00u)
NIU: Rod Carey (0-5-0, -5.00u)
Spread: UAB -2.5


First Responder Bowl

Boise State: Bryan Harsin (4-1-0, +2.91u)
Boston College Steve Addazio (2-3-0, -1.09u)
Spread: BSU -3.5


New Orleans Bowl

Appalachian State Scott Satterfield (2-1-0, +0.85u)
Middle Tennessee: Rick Stockstill (2-5-0, -3.04u)
Spread: APP -7.5


Redbox Bowl

Michigan State: Mark Dantonio (6-4-0, +1.69u)
Oregon: Mario Cristobal (0-2-1, -2.00u)
Spread: ORE -1.5
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Old 12-04-2018, 10:42 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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NYK,
is there an angle here that you or anyone with access to a database knows about? Similar to the NFL one posted in the NFL thread about taking <=33 % spread teams vs 67% spread teams.
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Old 12-04-2018, 11:54 AM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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Bad spread teams vs good ones in Bowl games

game type = BG and tS(ats margin>0) / tS(ats margin>-100)<=0.44 and oS(ats margin>0) / tS(ats margin>-100)>0.5 and oS(ats margin>0) / tS(ats margin>-100)<0.8
SU: 111-85-1 (2.94, 56.6%)
ATS: 122-71-4 (4.30, 63.2%)

IN ENGLISH:

Play on a Bowl team entering the game with a season ATS mark of .440 or less vs an opponent with a season ATS mark of better than .500 but less than .800

Pretty solid at 63.2% and a sample size of just about 200 games.

CAUTION: Just 10-11 ATS last 2 years (could be variance), or odds-makers catching up.
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Old 12-04-2018, 12:00 PM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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Total system

Here is one I like, contrarian by nature:

game type = BG and tA(points) >= 40.25 and total <= 66 and date > 20080102

SU: 25-18-0 (1.67, 58.1%)
ATS: 20-22-1 (-1.19, 47.6%) avg line: -2.9 (76.7%) -10: 8-35-0 (18.6%)
O/U: 9-34-0 (-8.66, 20.9%) avg total: 59.0

ENGLISH:

Play the UNDER id a team averages 40.25ppg or more if the total is less than 66. last 2 years you would be 9-4 ATS on this, so maintaining itself.

Best of Luck to all!
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Old 12-04-2018, 03:41 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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thanks MREAST...

If you are the Mr East of the MTI newsletter, Congrats on an incredible handicapping season...

and thanks for these 2 angles...

Last edited by southerncoach; 12-04-2018 at 03:49 PM.
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Old 12-04-2018, 07:08 PM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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thanks

Yes, and appreciated, things went well this season. Just here to help, like the last 2 Bowl seasons.
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Old 12-05-2018, 09:09 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Early Action Report



Birmingham Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Memphis (-4)
Dec. 22, 12 p.m. ET | ESPN

This game has been one of a couple in which the spread has already passed through a key number. After opening at -2.5, Memphis jumped to -4 as of Tuesday morning, passing through the all important three-point spread.

Sixty-one percent of early bets have taken the Tigers, but the real catalyst for the line move has been the 91% of money that has landed on them.I



Cheez-It Bowl: Cal vs. TCU (pk)
Dec. 26, 9 p.m. ET | ESPN

Oddsmakers gave TCU an initial edge in this game at a line of -2, but have since come back on that decision.

Unlike Memphis, it has not been a majority of bets or money thatís caused Cal to gain two points as the Golden Bears are drawing just 32% of early tickets and 48% of dollars.

That discrepancy, however, means that bigger bettors ó the ones more likely to be sharps ó are playing Cal, or at least played the Bears as underdogs, which was enough for books to eliminate the spread.

Sports Insightsí Bet Signals triggered a move on Cal at +1.5, confirming the early sharp action.




Texas Bowl: Baylor vs. Vanderbilt (-4)
Dec. 27, 9 p.m. ET | ESPN

Being the Texas Bowl, this game should bring a sizable Baylor crowd. If nothing else, though, it looks to be bringing a sizable amount of Baylor money so far.

Vandy opened anywhere from a 6- to 7-point favorite in this game, but with early action rushing to Baylorís side, oddsmakers have been forced to significantly reduce this spread.

The number of bets have actually been fairly split, with Baylor getting only a slight majority at 53%. As for actual dollars, 96% have landed on the Bears to cause the line move.



Alamo Bowl: Iowa State vs. Washington State (-3.5)
Dec. 28, 9 p.m. ET | ESPN

A similar story is unfolding in the Alamo Bowl. Like Vanderbilt, Washington State saw its line open in the -6.5 range. And while bets have been split, with the Cougars even seeing a slight 51% majority, the actual money wagered has been anything but.

Ninety-one percent of early dollars are behind the Cyclones, which has this line rapidly approaching the key number of +3.



Peach Bowl: Florida vs. Michigan (-7.5)
Dec. 29, 12 p.m. ET | ESPN

Following its 62-39 shellacking at the hands of Ohio State, Michigan hasnít drawn as many bets as expected in the Peach Bowl. Opening as 6-point favorites over Florida, the Wolverines have attracted only 48% of bettors.

Once again, money trumps bets, as those bets have accounted for 74% of dollars wagered, causing oddsmakers to push this spread through the key number of seven to -7.5.



Belk Bowl: Virginia vs. South Carolina (-4)
Dec. 29, 12 p.m. ET | ABC

The market percentages havenít been quite as eye-catching in this matchup, with 59% of bets and 62% of dollars landing on Virginia. The line movement, however, has been significant considering those figures.

Once again, a 6.5-point opening number has fallen about two points thanks to some early sharp action. A steam move was triggered by Sports Insightsí Bet Signals, which, cooperating with the majority of money behind the Cavs, has resulted in a line fall.



Liberty Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri (-7.5)
Dec. 31, 3:45 p.m. ET | ESPN

Oklahoma State opened as a double-digit dog in the Liberty Bowl, with most books listing the Pokes at +10. The line has obviously fallen considerably since that time, with the majority of bets and dollars hitting Okie State.

Sixty-six percent of tickets, accounting for 81% of the money wagered on the game, have taken the points, meaning not only are the Cowboys landing more bets and dollars than Mizzou, but theyíre also drawing the bigger bets.

Itís important to note that lines can fluctuate between 9.5 and 7.5 points pretty freely, as 8- and 9-point scoring margins are relatively rare in football. So the next move on this game could be very telling, especially if it continues in the same direction to +7.
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Old 12-05-2018, 11:44 AM
danny60606 danny60606 is offline
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Thanks NY Knight my friend....

What's your take on Miami Florida -3.5 vs Wisconsin..
Will the Hurricanes defense rise to the top against Wisconsin running game?

And Syracuse +7 vs West Virginia...
Do we see a 49-45 type of game?

Thanks Buddy
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Old 12-05-2018, 12:48 PM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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MIAMI,FL v WISC

This certainly could be chock full of variance because the sample size is not up to my standards.

That being said great pass defense teams from P5 schools (which includes when the Big East used to be part of it), have been historically great Bowl bets:

game type = BG and tA(oassing yards) < 180 and line<3 and conference in [SEC , BE , B10 < B12 , P10 , P12 , ACC]
SU: 39-16-0 (8.20, 70.9%) Teaser Records
ATS: 38-16-1 (3.10, 70.4%)

ENGLISH: Play on any P5 bowl team that allows less than 180 passing yards on the season as long as they are not a dog of more than +2.5

Best of luck,
East
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Old 12-05-2018, 01:13 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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We are going to the game but I have little faith in a win. Not going to pass up the opportunity to watch my favorite college football team play in my favorite MLB teams stadium.

As far as the Cuse game I do see a shootout.
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Old 12-05-2018, 01:19 PM
fat-freddie fat-freddie is offline
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NYK, just saw where Bama lost their play caller, Locksley to Maryland, chit Damn ever year !!
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"LADY LUCK", my "BITCH"
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Old 12-06-2018, 10:50 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Line Predictor ...

Bowl Season Line Predictions

Alabama (-14 to -14.5)
UCF (+7.5 to +7)
Troy (+3 to +2.5)
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Old 12-07-2018, 08:51 AM
bb33 bb33 is offline
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Running Dogs Trend
bet underdogs with better rushing attack
dont know the numbers but seems pretty popular
UL Laf
Northern Illinois
South Florida
Western Michigan
Wisconsin
Virginia
Central Florida

Cal was close(was a dog now a pick em)
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Old 12-07-2018, 12:44 PM
Roky36 Roky36 is online now
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MREAST......how do I access your MTI newsletter?
Thanks!
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Old 12-07-2018, 06:49 PM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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Newsletter

Appreciate the interest in the Newsletter but not here to promote just help!
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Old 12-08-2018, 08:37 AM
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MREast the Badgers are your favorite team? is that what you meant in a few posts back? why such a Bucky fan,

this is an incredible thread here.
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Old 12-08-2018, 08:53 AM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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Another Bowl situation

Here is one that has performed well, but beware, the sample size as is the case with a lot of Bowl situations is very small, so could just be variance.

p:game type = CH and game type = BG and p:F and p:W and line < -2 and rest < 29
SU: 19-2-0 (17.24, 90.5%)
ATS: 19-2-0 (9.50, 90.5%) avg line: -7.7

ENGLISH:

Play on a Bowl team that won their Conference Championship game as a favorite if the line in their Bowl game is -2.5 or more, and off less than 29 days of rest.

ACTIVE ON: Appalachian St.

Best of luck!
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Old 12-08-2018, 09:06 AM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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1-16 ats

Caution advised SMALL SAMPLE SIZE:

game type = BG and p:game type = CH and p:margin<=-8 and season>2005 and month=12 and line<=1

SU: 5-12-0 (-6.00, 29.4%)
ATS: 1-16-0 (-10.38, 5.9%)


ENGLISH:

Play against a team that lost in its Conference Championship game by 8 or more points in a December Bowl, if the line is pick 'em or any size favorite.

The theory is this team is playing a disappointment Bowl. Note they fail to cover by -10.38 ppg, has a straight up record of 5-12 as a favorite, so money line is in play here.

APPLICATION:

Against Memphis or on Wake Forest ATS/ML.

Best of Luck!
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Last edited by MREAST; 12-08-2018 at 09:07 AM. Reason: spelling
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Old 12-08-2018, 09:28 AM
Roky36 Roky36 is online now
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Great stuff MREAST!!! Thanks
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Old 12-08-2018, 11:06 AM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roky36 View Post
Great stuff MREAST!!! Thanks
Your welcome, best of luck!
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  #23  
Old 12-09-2018, 06:49 AM
deewlay deewlay is online now
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NYK
Wasn’t there a trend to bet against Heisman trophy winner (Murray)? Seeing how good both offenses are, you think Bama gonna be able to cover the 14 points?
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  #24  
Old 12-09-2018, 10:32 AM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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Heisman winner

Quote:
Originally Posted by deewlay View Post
NYK
Wasnít there a trend to bet against Heisman trophy winner (Murray)? Seeing how good both offenses are, you think Bama gonna be able to cover the 14 points?
9-18 ATS since 1990

NOTE: if a team was in a playoff, just the Championship game applies.

Not something that would sway me one way of the other.
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Old 12-09-2018, 11:14 AM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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parlay?

Please note this sample size is extremely small, so don't get crazy with this game:

p:rushing yards > 388 and line > -10 and total < 65 and game type = BG

SU: 2-9-0 (-7.55, 18.2%) Teaser Records
ATS: 0-11-0 (-8.73, 0.0%) avg line: -1.2 +6: 7-4-0 (63.6%) -6: 0-11-0 (0.0%) +10: 7-4-0 (63.6%) -10: 0-11-0 (0.0%)
O/U: 1-10-0 (-14.05, 9.1%) avg total: 54.1 +6: 1-10-0 (9.1%) -6: 1-10-0 (9.1%) +10: 1-10-0 (9.1%) -10: 3-8-0 (27.3%)

ENGLISH:

Play against a team as well as on the under if the play against team rushed for more than 388 yards in its last game, the line is less than -10 and the total is less than 65.

There are 11 bowl games total that has fit this scenario, and betting a parlay against this team and under is 10-0 last 10!

Correlated parlays may not be possible, and I am not an advocate of a parlay wager of any kind.

This goes against Oregon with an under play as well.

Best of Luck!
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Last edited by MREAST; 12-09-2018 at 11:15 AM. Reason: forgot to add applcation
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