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  #26  
Old 12-10-2018, 04:10 AM
968574 968574 is offline
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Great Info. Thank you
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  #27  
Old 12-10-2018, 02:17 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Bovada

Currently 52% of the public action is on Notre Dame (+11) vs. Clemson in the Cotton Bowl and 51% of the public action is on Alabama (-14) vs. Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.
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  #28  
Old 12-10-2018, 02:21 PM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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play as a contrarian in Bowls

BOWL HOT ATS TEAMS + HOT OVER TEAMS= BETTING NIGHTMARE!



Here we are once again into College Bowl season. Second, to the NCAA Basketball Tournament, it is the 2nd hottest sports wagering time of the year. There will be 40 games thrown at you over the next few weeks. The first thing to understand is the about-face Bowl games offer the bettor. I have written extensively in this column about how NCAA Football is a momentum sport. Things do a 180 degree turn when Bowl season gets underway. All the momentum is swept away by a long layoff, it is ground zero for change, and usually, those teams with momentum have lost it all, and become bad bets. Those same teams that were scoring big dividends to OVER bets, completely turn inside out as well.



You have to start looking at the obvious in these games and treat it like it is obviously wrong! If you maintain that mindset, your chances for success are much stronger.



Now that we have laid the groundwork let's create some living examples to show how all these ties together.



What happens when a Bowl team comes into its Bowl game on a 3 game or more over the total streak, with bookended main-stream totals from greater than 45 but less than 65, and playing as a favorite?



game type = BG and ou streak >= 3 and total > 45 and total < 65 and F
SU: 30-11-0 (6.88, 73.2%) Teaser Records
ATS: 23-17-1 (1.20, 57.5%) avg line: -5.7 +6: 29-12-0 (70.7%) -6: 11-29-1 (27.5%) +10: 31-8-2 (79.5%) -10: 9-32-0 (22.0%)
O/U: 8-33-0 (-9.07, 19.5%) avg total: 55.7


These big over streakers fall flat, logging a 33-8 mark in the opposite direction, to the UNDER. That works out to 80.5% winners, covering the total by 9.07 points per game.



WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY?



Since the start of the 2013-14 Bowl season, this has been 16-1 to the UNDER!



THIS BOWL SEASON UNDER APPLICATIONS:



OHIO ST v WASHINGTON





************************************************** ************************************************** **************************

How about a team coming in streaking money having covered at least 4 in a row? I will add in that the opponent is not on a 4 straight game ATS streak or more, so we avoid double-posting.



game type = BG and ats streak > 3 and o:ats streak < 4
SU: 58-74-1 (-4.20, 43.9%) Teaser Records
ATS: 50-81-2 (-4.40, 38.2%)


Here we go again against the grain at 61.8% against.



Once again we ask the question what have you done for me lately?



Since 2013-14 this is 15-4 ATS playing against the streaking ATS team.



APPLICATIONS:



Dec 21, 2018 Friday 17 2018 BYU WMCH neutral -12.0 48.5 0
Dec 27, 2018 Thursday 18 2018 VAN BAY neutral -4.0 55.0 0
Dec 29, 2018 Saturday 18 2018 AKST NEV neutral -1.0 59.0 0
Dec 31, 2018 Monday 18 2018 STAN PIT neutral -6.5 52.0


I wish everyone the best in Bowls, as well as the best in this Holiday Season!



Best of Luck,

East
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  #29  
Old 12-10-2018, 11:01 PM
chitownben chitownben is offline
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MR East. I look forward to this post every year. I remember 3-4 years ago we had all of those systems but many seem outdated. Thanks for all the info and hard work
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  #30  
Old 12-11-2018, 08:13 AM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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your welcome

Quote:
Originally Posted by chitownben View Post
MR East. I look forward to this post every year. I remember 3-4 years ago we had all of those systems but many seem outdated. Thanks for all the info and hard work
Most of what I am putting up here, in fact all, have fared very well lately. They are based on a short sample size so variance remains in the equation, so they are better served as an enhancement if you feel there is line value to support the situations.

I just let the reader decide how he/she wants to treat it. Just sharing some information.

Have a great Bowl Season!
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  #31  
Old 12-11-2018, 10:53 AM
Roky36 Roky36 is offline
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MREAST,
I'm lost and this is all "way over my head"! Are you saying under "applications" to take the 4 teams favored? In other words, take BYU, Vandy, Ark St and Stanford?
Thanks!
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  #32  
Old 12-11-2018, 01:27 PM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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yes

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roky36 View Post
MREAST,
I'm lost and this is all "way over my head"! Are you saying under "applications" to take the 4 teams favored? In other words, take BYU, Vandy, Ark St and Stanford?
Thanks!


In other words, take BYU, Vandy, Ark St and Stanford?

CORRECT

And the OHST/WASH UNDER

Hope that helps
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  #33  
Old 12-11-2018, 02:25 PM
madcapper1 madcapper1 is offline
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Pitt did not cover their last 2 games not sure why they would be on the list of streaking ATS winners - Stanford showing as 3-0-1 last 4?

Ark St did cover their last 4 games - play should be Nevada?

Vandy covered not only last 4 but 5 in a row - so play would be Baylor?

BYU covered 4 in a row - so play would be W. Michigan?


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2017 NFL 101-103

2016 NFL 153-107
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  #34  
Old 12-11-2018, 02:37 PM
bb33 bb33 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madcapper1 View Post
Pitt did not cover their last 2 games not sure why they would be on the list of streaking ATS winners - Stanford showing as 3-0-1 last 4?

Ark St did cover their last 4 games - play should be Nevada?

Vandy covered not only last 4 but 5 in a row - so play would be Baylor?

BYU covered 4 in a row - so play would be W. Michigan?



thats how I read it too
go AGAINST the teams on 4 + ats streaks
Mr East ...what say you ?
thx
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  #35  
Old 12-11-2018, 03:00 PM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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Pitt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by madcapper1 View Post
Pitt did not cover their last 2 games not sure why they would be on the list of streaking ATS winners - Stanford showing as 3-0-1 last 4?

Ark St did cover their last 4 games - play should be Nevada?

Vandy covered not only last 4 but 5 in a row - so play would be Baylor?

BYU covered 4 in a row - so play would be W. Michigan?


Where are you seeing Pitt?
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  #36  
Old 12-11-2018, 03:03 PM
MREAST MREAST is offline
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I goofed

APPLICATIONS:



Dec 21, 2018 Friday 17 2018 BYU WMCH neutral -12.0 48.5 0
Dec 27, 2018 Thursday 18 2018 VAN BAY neutral -4.0 55.0 0
Dec 29, 2018 Saturday 18 2018 AKST NEV neutral -1.0 59.0 0
Dec 31, 2018 Monday 18 2018 STAN PIT neutral -6.5 52.0

Play on:

W. Mich
Baylor
Nevada
Pitt

Go against the streakers.
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  #37  
Old 12-11-2018, 03:04 PM
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Stanford

I have Stanford -6.5 winning by 7 so 4-0, some may have it -7 and push
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  #38  
Old 12-11-2018, 05:04 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Fade Ranked Teams


What do recreational bettors know about the Servpro First Responder Bowl between No. 25 Boise State and Boston College? Not much, other than the Broncos being ranked. Top 25 teams will receive a disproportionate number of bets from the public just because they are ranked.

In early betting a majority of spread tickets are on Boise State. Oddsmakers know casual bettors will wager on Top 25 teams and inflate their lines accordingly.

In bowl games, betting against ranked teams has gone 165-155-3 (51.6%) against the spread (ATS) since 2005.

It has been more profitable to fade ranked team when they face an unranked opponent: 49-39-1 (55.7%) ATS.



Games that match (based on the AP Poll):


Arizona State (+4) vs. No. 19 Fresno State Dec. 15

Houston (+3) vs. No. 22 Army Dec. 22

Boston College (+2.5) vs. No. 23 Boise State Dec. 26

Northwestern (+7) vs. No. 20 Utah Dec. 31

Oklahoma State (+7.5) vs. No. 24 Missouri Dec. 31

NC State (+4.5) vs. No. 21 Texas A&M Dec. 31

Iowa (+6.5) vs. No. 18 Mississippi State Jan. 1
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  #39  
Old 12-11-2018, 05:22 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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In the last ten years, underdogs have covered 186 bowl games - slightly above 50%. However, they have won 136 of those 186 games (73%) outright.

If you're gonna take a dog come bowl season, it pays to play them on the ML.
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  #40  
Old 12-12-2018, 02:08 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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David Cutcliffe is 8-2 ATS in bowl games as a head coach (4-1 at Duke, 4-1 at Ole Miss). As an underdog, Cutcliffe’s teams are 6-1 ATS with four outright wins.
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  #41  
Old 12-12-2018, 02:09 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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In the last 20 bowl games which an SEC team has been at least a 6-point dog (dates back to 1999), the SEC team is 16-4 ATS with 11 outright wins. Kentucky and Florida both getting more than 6 points right now.
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  #42  
Old 12-12-2018, 02:10 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Jeff Brohm is 3-0 SU in bowl games (2-1 ATS). His team won its bowl game last year as an underdog vs Arizona. Brohm is 8-2 ATS with five outright wins as an underdog at Purdue.
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  #43  
Old 12-12-2018, 02:11 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Dana Holgorsen’s teams are 1-5 ATS in bowl games (0-3 with two outright losses as a favorite). The only game which WVU covered was the 37-point win vs Clemson as an underdog in the 2012 Orange Bowl (0-5 since then).
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  #44  
Old 12-12-2018, 02:12 PM
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Mike Leach teams are 1-7 ATS in last 8 bowl games (1-3 at WSU). Leach’s teams have been favored 11 times in bowl games and are 3-8 ATS with 6 outright L. The only W Leach’s teams have in their last 5 bowl trips is the 2015 Sun Bowl vs Miami, which was undergoing coaching change
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  #45  
Old 12-12-2018, 02:13 PM
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Michigan State is 5-1 both ATS and SU in its last 6 bowl games. The only loss in that span was to Alabama in the 2015 CFP Semifinal. In his 7 bowl games which the spread was less than 7 points, Mark Dantonio’s teams are 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU (5-0 ATS with 4 outright wins as a dog)
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  #46  
Old 12-13-2018, 01:04 PM
bb33 bb33 is offline
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Not sure where I found this...I know it was profitable last few years

Games where the line is 3.5-7 and the total is 45 to 65 bet first half under for 1 unit
If it wins your done
If it loses bet 2 units on 2nd half under

Anyone with insight on this please chime in
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  #47  
Old 12-13-2018, 02:27 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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I wouldn't recommend doing this....

Here is why...
you bet 1 unit on 1st half under and it wins...great you win 1 unit...

It is when it loses that is the problem as I see it.
you have to bet 2.21 to win 2.1 on a game you are already down 1 unit on.

Now, if this loses, you have lost 3.31 units.

So essentially you have to win 3.3 games for every one loss just to break even.

Pretty steep odds, I think. It's equivalent to betting on a 330 favorite in baseball.
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  #48  
Old 12-14-2018, 11:28 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Fresno St 3rd Q(12-0-1)ATS +129 Point Differential with 10 shutouts.

[email protected] (W)
14-0vsSJSU (W)
7-0vsSDSU (W)
[email protected] (P)
10-0vsHawaii (W)
[email protected] Mexico (W)
14-0vsWyoming (W)
[email protected] (W)
21-0vsToledo (W)
[email protected] (W)
[email protected] (W)
14-7vsIdaho (W)
[email protected] (W)
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  #49  
Old 12-14-2018, 11:38 AM
fat-freddie fat-freddie is online now
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Another great find GG, appreciate it buddy
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  #50  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:28 PM
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As of Dec. 13, more money had been wagered on the Cotton Bowl between Clemson and Notre Dame than any other bowl game at the Westgate SuperBook.

Seventy percent of the money that had been wagered on the game was on the favored Tigers. "I do expect Notre Dame support as we get closer to Dec. 29," Westgate Superbook Race & Sports Director John Murray said.
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