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  #51  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:29 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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As of Dec. 13 at William Hill sportsbooks, 60 percent of the bets on the Cotton Bowl point spread were on Notre Dame, but 59 percent of the money that had been wagered was on Clemson.
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  #52  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:33 PM
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Twenty-one of the first 23 money-line bets on Notre Dame-Clemson were on the Fighting Irish at Las Vegas sportsbook operator CG Technology.
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  #53  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:34 PM
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As of Dec. 13 at the SuperBook, the number of bets on the Orange Bowl between Oklahoma and Alabama is equal, while the underdog Sooners attracted 64 percent of the money wagered.
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  #54  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:34 PM
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As of Dec. 13 at CG Technology, there 2.2 times more tickets on Oklahoma and 2.2 as much money on the Sooners in the Orange Bowl.
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  #55  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:35 PM
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As of Dec. 13 at William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada and New Jersey, 78 percent of the money wagered on the Orange Bowl point spread was on the Crimson Tide.
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  #56  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:35 PM
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The SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas took a $16,546 two-team parlay on Clemson -11.5 and Oklahoma +14 the day after the playoff matchups were released, according to Murray.
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  #57  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:37 PM
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A bettor at the William Hill sportsbook at Monmouth Park racetrack in new Jersey placed a $35,000 bet on Fresno State -4.5 against Arizona State in the Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 15.
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  #58  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:38 PM
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CG Technology took five limit wagers on Fresno State. "All the bets on Arizona State are 20 bucks, 40 bucks, 50 bucks," Simbal said. "We're a big lopsided there."
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  #59  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:38 PM
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A regular customer at MGM sportsbooks in Nevada placed a series of five-figure bowl bets on some underdogs.

The non-local bettor put $55,000 on Louisiana Tech +1.5, $44,000 on Eastern Michigan +2, $55,000 on Middle Tennessee +7 and $44,000 on North Texas +8.5, according to supervisor Scott Shelton.
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  #60  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:39 PM
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The Rose Bowl line climbed all the way from Ohio State -4.5 to -7 in the first 10 days it was on the board at CG Technology. Jason Simbal, vice president of risk for CG Technology, said they took limit bets on the Buckeyes at -4.5 and another limit bet Monday at -6.5 to push the line to -7.
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  #61  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:40 PM
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As of Dec. 13, five times as much money had been bet on Ohio State as had been bet on Washington at CG Technology. "I don't really expect the public to bet Washington at all in this game," Simbal said. "You usually know when one of these dogs is going to be a popular money-line team. I don't really see Washington being that. I think we're going to need this game for quite a bit."
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  #62  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:41 PM
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The SuperBook reported sharp action on: Georgia Southern +1, Louisiana Tech +2, Arkansas State PK, Virginia Tech +6, Western Michigan +12.5, Georgia Tech -4, Iowa State +4, Virginia +4.5 and Pittsburgh +7.

"There's also been sharp money on the under in Saturday's New Orleans Bowl between Middle Tennessee and Appalachian State," the SuperBook's Murray said. "The total moved down from 50.5 to 48 here."
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  #63  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:42 PM
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The South Point reported taking bets from respected players on Temple, Boston College, Texas A&M and Utah in early December. Temple opened as a 3-point favorite over Duke. The line grew to -5, before settling back at -4. Boston College has gone from +3.5 to +2.5 against Boise State. Texas A&M, after opening at -4.5, has grown to a 6.5-point favorite over NC State. Utah opened at -6.5 and grew to -7 against Northwestern.
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  #64  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:42 PM
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The bowl that attracted the most lopsided action at CG Technology in the first 10 days after the matchups were announced was the Outback Bowl between Mississippi State and Iowa. "They're betting Mississippi State," Simbal said. "We took bets over the counter for $8,800 on Mississippi -6. Then, we took another five figures in total on -7. We went to -7.5 and finally sharp guys bet Iowa. But a lot of action on Mississippi State."
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  #65  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:43 PM
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As of Dec. 13 at the SuperBook, 63 percent of the bets and 85 percent of the money was on favored Georgia in the Sugar Bowl against Texas.
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  #66  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:47 PM
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Over the last five seasons, bowl games have been decided by an average of 14 points.


Alabama is a 14-point favorite over Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Orange Bowl. Before the bowls kicked off, it was the largest point spread of any bowl this season.


Over the last five seasons, bowl teams favored by 14 or more points are just 8-4 straight-up.


Teams favored by 14 points or more have won 89.3 percent of regular-season and conference championship games over the last five years.


Heading into bowl season, there are four double-digit favorites: Alabama (-14) vs. Oklahoma, Georgia -11 vs. Texas, Clemson -11.5 vs. Notre Dame, and BYU -12 vs. Western Michigan. Double-digit favorites in bowls are 20-6 SU and 12-14 ATS over the last five seasons.


Average total points per game (FBS vs. FBS) this season: 57.7.


Average total points in bowl games over last five seasons: 59.2.


Over the last five years, overs are 102-94 in bowl games.


Teams are 49-49-1 ATS in bowl games after losing in their conference championship game from 2008-17.


Favorites are 1-7 against the spread in the Pinstripe Bowl. Miami is a 4-point favorite over Wisconsin in this year's Pinstripe Bowl.


Underdogs are 4-0 against the spread in the College Football Playoff national championship game.


Nine of the last 10 Military Bowls have gone over the total.


Ten of the last 12 Russell Athletic Bowls have gone under the total.


Vanderbilt has covered the spread in its last five games -- the longest such streak of any bowl team.


North Texas has failed to cover the spread in its last five games, the longest such streak of any bowl team.


Only one of North Texas' 12 games eclipsed the total, with one push.
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  #67  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:49 PM
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Ten-year conference ATS record in bowls


SEC: 58-43-2

Big Ten: 43-37-3

ACC: 49-43-2

Conference USA: 33-27

Sun Belt: 19-15

Mountain West: 30-29

Independents: 11-12

Pac-10/12: 34-38-2

American: 14-18

Big 12: 29-45

MAC: 18-35-1
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  #68  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:53 PM
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Largest strength-of-schedule mismatches [via Sagarin Ratings]


Texas A&M (4) vs. NC State (68)

Northern Illinois (73) vs. UAB (131)

Michigan State (8) vs. Oregon (62)

Wake Forest (53) vs. Memphis (103)

South Carolina (17) vs. Virginia (65)

Tulane (74) vs. Louisiana (112)
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  #69  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:55 PM
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Statistical mismatches



• UAB, fourth in team sacks, vs. Northern Illinois, 113th in sacks allowed.

• Marshall, fifth in team sacks vs. South Florida, 114th in sacks allowed.

• Pittsburgh, 15th in kickoff returns, vs. Stanford, 129th in kickoff return defense

• Minnesota, 26th in kickoff returns, vs. Georgia Tech, No. 126 kickoff return defense.

• Boston College, 16th in punt returns, vs. Boise State, 123rd in punt return defense.

• North Texas, 25th punt return, vs. Utah State 125th,, punt return defense.

• Memphis's No. 15 red zone offense vs. Wake Forest's No. 128 red zone defense.

• Army's 36th red zone offense vs. Houston's 124th red zone defense.

• Georgia Tech, 11th in turnovers gained, vs. Minnesota, 116th in turnovers lost.

• Army's No. 2-ranked rushing attack vs. Houston's 99th-ranked rushing defense.

• Tulane's No. 30-ranked rushing attack vs. Louisiana's No. 107-ranked rushing defense.

• Cincinnati's 16th-ranked rushing attack vs. Virginia Tech's 105th-ranked rushing defense.

• Alabama's No. 2-ranked pass efficiency vs. Oklahoma's 105th-ranked pass efficiency defense.

• NC State's 20th ranked pass efficiency vs. Texas A&M's 111th-ranked pass efficiency defense.

• Memphis, No. 5 in yards per play, vs. Wake Forest, No. 97 in yards per play allowed.
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  #70  
Old 12-14-2018, 12:56 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Coaches


• Duke coach David Cutcliffe is 8-2 ATS in bowl games. The Blue Devils are 3.5-point underdogs to Temple in the Walk-On's Independence Bowl on Dec. 27. Cutcliffe is 48-33-2 ATS as an underdog at Duke.

• Florida International coach Butch Davis is 7-1 ATS in bowl games. The Panthers are 6-point underdogs to Toledo in the Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl on Dec. 21.

• Ohio State coach Urban Meyer is 10-3 ATS in bowl games. The Buckeyes are 6.5-point favorites over Washington in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1.

• Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is 9-3 ATS in bowl games. The Utes are 7-point favorites over Northwestern in the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl on Dec. 31.

• Marshall coach Doc Holliday is 5-0 ATS in bowl games. The Thundering Herd are a 2.5-point favorite over South Florida in the Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl on Dec. 20.

• Northern Illinois coach Rod Carey are 0-5 ATS in bowl games. The Huskies are 2.5-point underdogs against UAB in the Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl on Dec. 18.

• Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly is 3-7 ATS in bowl games. The Fighting Irish are 11.5-point underdogs to Clemson in the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 29.

• Texas coach Tom Herman is 12-2-1 ATS as an underdog. The Longhorns are 12-point underdogs against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.

• All five of Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson's bowl games have gone over the total. The total in the Jared Birmingham Bowl between Wake Forest and Memphis on Dec. 22 is 74.

• All five of Auburn coach Gus Malzahn's bowl games have gone under the total. The Tigers face Purdue in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl on Dec. 28. The total is 54.5.

• Six of Penn State coach James Franklin's seven bowl games have gone over the total. The Nittany Lions face Kentucky in the VRBO Citrus Bowl on Jan. 1. The total is 47.5.

• Sixteen of Alabama coach Nick Saban's 22 bowl games have gone over the total. The Crimson Tide will take on the Oklahoma Sooners in the Orange Bowl on Dec. 29. Eleven of the Sooners' 13 games this season went over the total. The total for this year's Orange Bowl is 81.5.

• All five of Boston College coach Steve Addazio's bowl games have gone over the total. The Eagles face Boise State in the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl on Dec. 26. The total is 56.
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  #71  
Old 12-14-2018, 01:47 PM
968574 968574 is offline
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Thanks NYK.
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  #72  
Old 12-14-2018, 04:17 PM
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Great stuff Knight, keep em coming
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It's not the kill, It's the thrill of the chase
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  #73  
Old 12-14-2018, 09:08 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MREAST View Post
game type = BG and tS(ats margin>0) / tS(ats margin>-100)<=0.44 and oS(ats margin>0) / tS(ats margin>-100)>0.5 and oS(ats margin>0) / tS(ats margin>-100)<0.8
SU: 111-85-1 (2.94, 56.6%)
ATS: 122-71-4 (4.30, 63.2%)

IN ENGLISH:

Play on a Bowl team entering the game with a season ATS mark of .440 or less vs an opponent with a season ATS mark of better than .500 but less than .800

Pretty solid at 63.2% and a sample size of just about 200 games.

CAUTION: Just 10-11 ATS last 2 years (could be variance), or odds-makers catching up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MREAST View Post
Here is one I like, contrarian by nature:

game type = BG and tA(points) >= 40.25 and total <= 66 and date > 20080102

SU: 25-18-0 (1.67, 58.1%)
ATS: 20-22-1 (-1.19, 47.6%) avg line: -2.9 (76.7%) -10: 8-35-0 (18.6%)
O/U: 9-34-0 (-8.66, 20.9%) avg total: 59.0

ENGLISH:

Play the UNDER id a team averages 40.25ppg or more if the total is less than 66. last 2 years you would be 9-4 ATS on this, so maintaining itself.

Best of Luck to all!


What games do these fit in?
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  #74  
Old 12-14-2018, 09:15 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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5 College Football Mismatches Bettors Can Exploit During Bowl Season



It's important for bettors to examine the biggest mismatches during bowl season.
I'll focus on five of the most glaring mismatches, starting with one on Tuesday.
I focus on a few areas, including the run, QB pressure and even red zone production.
Bowl season has arrived, which we means we have a very robust, 12-game data set to analyze the relative strengths and weaknesses of all 78 teams competing during bowl season.

Whether you want to look in the trenches, at the skill positions or even on special teams, bettors must identify and be cognizant of glaring mismatches each week.

Power ratings should serve as your handicapping starting point, but situational angles (especially motivation during bowl season) and matchup analyses should help refine your final wagers.

As I have done each week this season, I have again pinpointed five of the most glaring mismatches during bowl season. These will hopefully help you make more informed betting decisions. For those not familiar, I will point out a major discrepancy in a standard statistic and then provide supporting evidence that the underlying metrics back up.

Let’s start by looking at a glaring mismatch on the first Saturday of bowl season.




UAB Pass Rush vs. Northern Illinois
Spread: UAB -2.5
Over/Under: 43
Location: Boca Raton, Fla.
Date: Tuesday, Dec. 18
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN
The Boca Raton Bowl will feature two of the most prolific pass rushing units in college football. Northern Illinois leads the nation with 50 sacks, ranking fifth in Adjusted Sack Rate. Meanwhile, UAB comes in at fourth overall with 43 sacks and ranks third in Adjusted Sack Rate. Both defensive fronts are more than capable of absolutely dominating a game.

However, the UAB offensive line is much more equipped to battle in the trenches. Northern Illinois allowed 38 sacks this season at a rate of 2.92 per game, which ranks 113th in the country. In contrast, the Blazers only allowed 25 all season in the same number of games.

The advanced metrics confirm these raw numbers, as UAB’s offensive line ranks 60th in Adjusted Sack Rate. That’s just slightly above average, but significantly better than the Huskies’ rank of 117th.

In a game that features two stout run defenses, each team should face countless third-and-long situations. And it is the UAB defensive line that is more likely to get to the QB as a result of the more favorable matchup up front. I think that’s ultimately the difference in this game where points should come at a premium.







Troy Special Teams vs. Buffalo
Spread: Buffalo -2
Over/Under: 51.5
Location: Mobile, Ala.
Date: Saturday, Dec. 22
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN
The MAC had some really bad special teams play this season across the board, including Buffalo — which struggled all year on the often-forgotten about third unit. It’s easier to hide those issues in a conference filled with teams dealing with similar issues, but those deficiencies get magnified against teams with elite special teams. And Troy certainly fits that mold.

Just take a look at some of the differences between these two teams:

Troy ranks fifth in net punting (41.83 yards); Buffalo ranks 85th.
Troy ranks ninth overall in average kick return yardage (25.06 yards); Buffalo ranks 114th.
Buffalo kicker Adam Mitcheson is just 8 of 12 on field goal attempts this year and has missed SEVEN extra points, including a costly one in the MAC championship. Tyler Sumpter hasn’t been spectacular for Troy, but he’s been solid, connecting on 18 of 24 field goal attempts and all 39 extra points.
Buffalo has had an NCAA-worst SEVEN kicks blocked this year; Troy has had zero.
Amazingly, Buffalo has also had an NCAA-worst three punts blocked; Troy has had zero.
From an S&P+ perspective, Buffalo ranks 124th in the country on special teams. And Troy? 11th. That’s a staggering discrepancy, which could ultimately decide who will win (and cover) in the 2018 Dollar General Bowl.

No matter where you look, Troy has a distinct advantage on special teams and is much more likely to create a game-changing play from that unit.

Two other noteworthy glaring S&P+ Special Teams ranking disparities this bowl season include:

Utah (No. 7) vs. Northwestern (No. 122)
Cal (No. 20) vs. TCU (No. 121)








Georgia Tech Rush Offense vs. Minnesota
Spread: Georgia Tech -6
Over/Under: 60
Location: Detroit, Mich.
Date: Wednesday, Dec. 26
Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN
Minnesota allows 5.2 yards per rush attempt, which ranks 118th in the country. Only Virginia Tech allows more among teams that qualified for a bowl this season.

Well, that’s not ideal against a Georgia Tech triple-option attack that runs the ball at the third-highest rate in FBS.

Army: 63.8% plays
Air Force: 59.4%
Georgia Tech: 58.4%
Navy: 56.3%
Georgia Southern: 48.7%
Yup, your five option teams, as you’d expect. And Georgia Tech doesn’t just run it frequently, it runs it very effectively. The Yellow Jackets average 5.7 yards per carry, which ranks in the top 10 nationally.

You won’t find anything different if you glance at the advanced metrics. Georgia Tech ranks in the top 20 in Rushing S&P+ Offense — and also sits in the top five in Rushing efficiency, Opportunity Rate and Stuff Rate.

Tech will face a Gopher rush defense that ranks 86th overall, per S&P+. They also have extreme issues containing explosiveness in the run game, ranking 126th in that department. Expect the Yellow Jackets to break countless huge runs against Minnesota on the turf of Ford Field in the Quick Lane Bowl.








Temple Offensive Line vs. Duke
Temple -3.5
Over/Under: 55.5
Location: Shreveport, Louisiana
Date: Thursday, Dec. 27
Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN
Duke only had 21 sacks on the season for an average of 1.75 per game, which ranks 95th in the country. Don’t expect the Blue Devils to get many against a stellar Temple offensive that only allowed 15 in 12 games this year — good enough for a top 20 clip.

The advanced metrics tell the same story. The Owls’ offensive line ranks 13th overall in Adjusted Sack Rate, while Duke’s defensive line ranks 96th overall in that same category. And even more alarming, the Blue Devils rank 129th in Adjusted Sack Rate on Passing Downs.

Assuming he can go, Temple quarterback Anthony Russo (who missed the season finale) should have all day to throw in the Independence Bowl against a reeling Duke team that ended the season with two losses by a combined score of 94-13.








Mississippi State Red Zone Efficiency vs. Iowa
Mississippi State -7
Over/Under: 44.5
Location: Tampa, Fla.
Date: Tuesday, Jan. 1
Time: Noon ET
Channel: ESPN2
Yes, Mississippi State’s defense ranks in the top five in red scoring, allowing opponents to score on only 71.9% of trips inside the 20. But even more impressive, the Bulldogs have only allowed opposing teams to score an NCAA-best eight total touchdowns in 32 red zone trips. EIGHT! That’s absurd.

Iowa ranks a very average 56th in red zone scoring percentage at 84.9%, but has only scored touchdowns on 36 of 53 trips inside the 20. Even more troubling is the fact that star tight end Noah Fant will sit out this game in advance of the NFL draft. Fant was the best red zone option for the Hawkeyes.



The advanced metrics paint the same picture. Mississippi State ranks No. 1 in the nation in Finishing Drives, per S&P+. The Bulldogs’ defense also ranks in the top four in both inside-the-10 and 11-to-20 yard line success rates. Meanwhile, Iowa ranks 121st nationally in first-and-goal success rate, which you’d expect for a team that has no running game to speak of.

Considering Iowa’s offense doesn’t possess much explosiveness and the fact that Mississippi State’s defense contains explosive plays as well as any team in the country, Iowa will need to methodically drive down the field to score. But once the Hawkeyes are down inside the 20, they will struggle immensely to punch it in the end zone.

Additionally, the Mississippi State offense has excelled in the red zone, which isn’t surprising with its dominant rushing attack. The Bulldogs offense sits in the top 20 in red zone scoring percentage and also ranks in the top five in Finishing Drives. They should convert most of their trips inside the 20 into seven points against an Iowa defense that hasn’t thrived in the red zone.

This particular mismatch is one of the reasons I like Mississippi State and the under here. It doesn’t hurt the unders case that these are two snails that rank in the bottom 15 in adjusted pace.
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  #75  
Old 12-14-2018, 09:19 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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60 Essential College Football Bowl Game Betting Trends, Tips, Stats and More


1. There are 11 bowl teams that allowed more yards per play than they gained this season:

Pitt
Northern Illinois
Texas
Syracuse
Duke
Minnesota
Baylor
Army
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Northwestern



2. Northwestern’s -.86 yards per play differential is the worst on that list and 106th of 130 teams nationally, fractions ahead of Liberty and Kansas.

3. But Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald is 50-35-1 ATS as an underdog in his career. He’s won 35 of those outright, and blindly betting him on the moneyline would have yielded you 47.7 units and a ridiculous 55.4% ROI.

4. Utah’s Kyle Whittingham is 11-1 straight-up and 9-3 ATS in bowl games.

5. The Utes are a 7-point favorite over Northwestern in the Holiday Bowl.

See! What a roller coaster. Fade Northwestern, bet Northwestern moneyline, back Utah at -7. I’m a mess, and I wrote it.

It’s hard to handicap 39 bowl games, so we’re offering up some of our favorite bowl betting nuggets — everything from talent mismatches to 2018 improvements to historical coaching trends. For every nugget, you could probably present another that makes a case for the opposition, so don’t take these as gospel in any way.




We’ve hit five nuggets already — here are 55 more bowl facts to help you through this long, windy month. Every bowl game is covered in some way below.

Trends come from our data at BetLabs and KillerSports.com. All advanced statistics from from SB Nation/Football Outsiders’ S&P+, unless otherwise noted.

6. Interim coaches are 28-30 straight-up and 27-30-1 ATS in bowl games since 2005.

7. The 10 best and worst coaches in bowl games.



8. Alabama’s Nick Saban is 15-5-1 to the over in conference championship and bowl games since 2005. Bama-Oklahoma’s total sits at 80.5.

9. Teams that went 4-8 ATS or worse during the regular season have covered in bowl games 60% of the time. Those teams this year:

North Texas
San Diego State
Western Michigan
Wake Forest
TCU
10. Unpopular underdogs have been successful in bowl games. You can see live betting percentages here.


11. Underdogs are 239-218-6 (52%) against the spread in bowls since 2005. Dogs of more than field goal have gone 163-136-2 (55%) ATS.

12. Underdogs have been successful straight-up in bowl games, winning 38.7% of them outright since 1980. Just 22.8% of dogs win in the regular season.

13. Blindly betting all 62 double-digit bowl underdogs since 2005 would have earned you +24.7 units and a 39.9% ROI.

14. The SEC has historically been the best conference against the spread in bowl games. The Pac-12 has been awful in the last three seasons.


15. A $100 parlay on every Pac-12 team losing its bowl game straight-up besides Utah (Kyle Whittingham is 11-1 SU in bowls) pays $13,115.19 (h/t Max Meyer).

16. The biggest strength of schedule differences, per S&P+:


17. Tulane’s offense hasn’t actually been all that resurgent under new quarterback Justin McMillan.

4 games with Jonathan Banks: 5.81 yards per play
8 games with McMillan: 5.83 ypp
18. Alex Atkins will call plays for Tulane in the Cure Bowl (-3.5 vs. ULL), the first time he’s ever done that.

19. Utah State coach Matt Wells is off to Texas Tech, and he’s taken 80% of his staff with him. They say they’ll be involved in bowl prep (-7.5 vs. North Texas), but the early recruiting signing deadline is four days after the Aggies’ bowl.

20. The Las Vegas bowl pits the Mountain West winner against the sixth-best Pac-12 team each year. But the MWC is 6-6 ATS in this game since 2006. Fresno is -5 vs. Arizona State.




21. Eastern Michigan got smoked by Army’s triple option in September. The Black Knights had the ball for nearly 46 minutes. EMU (+2.5) faces another triple option team in Georgia Southern.

22. Extra prep time hasn’t helped defenses beat the triple option. Option teams are 21-15 ATS in bowls since 2005 and the over is 22-13 in those games.

23. NIU coach Rod Carey is 0-5 ATS and straight-up in bowl games (+2.5 vs. UAB).

24. Ohio (-3) ranks No. 3 in rushing S&P+, but San Diego State’s defense is No. 9 in the same category.

25. Marshall coach Doc Holliday is 5-0 straight-up and ATS in bowl games at Marshall.

26. Marshall (-2.5) will take on USF, which lost five straight to end the year and got a bowl berth in its home stadium. The Bulls will also have a new play caller.

27. Florida International (+5 vs. Toledo) has a Second Order Win Total of 6.9 compared to an 8-4 record. That means FIU won more games than it deserved to based on its statistical profile.

The other “luckiest” and unluckiest teams in the country, per Second Order Win Total.


28. BYU (-12 vs. Western Michigan) averaged more than 5.8 yards per play only twice in its first eight games, but did it three times in its last four.

29. Memphis’ offense ranks 11th in explosiveness, and the Wake Forest defense ranks 73rd.

The other biggest explosiveness mismatches, per Football Outsiders’ IsoPPP+:


30. Memphis (-3.5) will be without star running back Darrell Henderson, but has two running backs that averaged at least 5.7 yards per carry behind him.

31. Houston (+3) runs more plays per minute than anyone in the country and averages the least time of possession per game. Army is second-to-last in plays per minute and first in time of possession.

32. Buffalo (-2.5) is one of just 12 MAC teams in the last seven bowl seasons to be favored. The previous nine are 3-6 ATS, and the MAC as a whole is 23-37-3 ATS since 2005.

33. Hawaii (-1) rose from an S&P+ rating of 129 preseason to 100 now. Louisiana Tech fell from 69th to 95th.

34. Boston College coach Steve Addazio is 5-0 to the over in bowl games. His total vs. Boise State (-3) sits at 56.

35. News of Minnesota suspending players has moved the Quick Lane Bowl line from Georgia Tech -3.5 to -5.5.

36. The biggest line moves this bowl season (at least 2.5 points):


37. TCU (+2) lost a quarterback to transfer, has two injured and the fourth has thrown 43 career passes. The starter will face a Cal defense that’s allowed the 18th-fewest yards per pass attempt.

38. Duke coach David Cutcliffe is 8-2 ATS in bowl games, and 6-1 as an underdog. The only loss? First ballot Bad Beat Hall of Famer, the 2012 Belk Bowl. Duke is +3.5 vs. Temple

39. Miami (-4) hasn’t thrown for more than 205 yards in a game since September, and didn’t top 260 all season. This Wisconsin defense ranks 43rd in S&P+ and 50th in yards per pass attempt allowed.

40. Vanderbilt (-3.5 vs. Baylor) lost two games all year by double-digits — Georgia and South Carolina. The ‘Dores lost by five points each to Notre Dame and Missouri.



41. Purdue’s offense ranks No. 7 in explosiveness, while Auburn’s defense (-3.5) is 87th.

42. There’s a growing list of players sitting out bowl games. We’re tracking them all here. The biggest line mover has been West Virginia quarterback Will Grier; the Mountaineers dropped from -7.5 to -1.5 against Syracuse.

43. His backup, Jack Allison, was a 4-star, top-150 player out of the top level of Florida high school football.

44. The biggest talent gaps this bowl season, per the 247Sports Talent Composite:


45. Mike Leach is 2-7 ATS in his last nine bowl games and 1-3 ATS at Washington State (-3.5 vs. Iowa State).

46. SEC teams are 16-4 ATS with 11 straight-up wins in their last 20 bowl games as 6-plus point underdogs. Florida is +7.5 vs. Michigan (h/t Chris Fallica).

47. Nevada (+1.5 vs. Arkansas State) lost 26 turnovers this season, the most of any bowl-eligible team.



48. Clemson’s offense (-11.5 vs. Notre Dame)…

In 4 games with QB Kelly Bryant: 7.49 yards per play
In 8 games with QB Trevor Lawrence: 7.34 ypp
49. Notre Dame’s offense…

In 4 games with QB Brandon Wimbush: 5.53 yards per play
In 8 games with QB Ian Book: 6.52 ypp



50. Alabama’s offense (2) vs. Oklahoma’s defense (89) is the biggest offense/defense matchup of bowl season, per S&P+. The Tide are -14.

The other biggest offense/defense mismatches:


51. Virginia Tech (+5 vs. Cincinnati) had a postgame win expectancy (how many they’d win if the game was played 100 times) in just four games this season.

52. Stanford (-6.5), strangely enough, ranks No. 7 in passing S&P+ and 105th in rushing. Pitt is the opposite — 11th in rushing and 93rd in passing.

53. Mark Dantonio is 5-1 ATS and straight-up in his last six bowls, with the only loss coming to Alabama in the 2015 playoff. Michigan State is +3 vs. Oregon

54. Oklahoma State was 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and 2-6 ATS as a favorite. The Pokes are +8 against Missouri.

55. Texas A&M (-6 vs. N.C. State) has lost three straight bowl games. Prior to this year, the Aggies had won just 5 of 15 games in November and December over the last three years.

In 2018, they won three straight to end the season.

56. Penn State’s defense (11th) vs. Kentucky’s offense (92nd) is one of the biggest defense/offense mismatches of bowl season, per S&P+. The Nittany Lions are -6.

The other biggest defense/offense mismatches:


57. Kentucky averaged more than 5.0 yards per play in just three of eight SEC games. Their vaunted defense allowed at least 6.3 in three of the last four.




58. Against Memphis with backup quarterback Darriel Mack Jr., UCF (+7.5 vs. LSU) had its highest yardage total (690) and third-highest yards per play (7.8) of the season.

59. Ohio State (-6) allowed 64 plays of 20-plus yards, 30th-most in the country. Fortunately, Washington ranks 86th in offensive explosiveness.

60. Texas coach Tom Herman is 10-2-1 ATS as an underdog. He’s won seven of those games outright for a ridiculous 16.4 units and 126.5% ROI. The Longhorns are +11.5 vs. Georgia.
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