Cuse's 2011-12 Bowl Season

[cuse_man]

Have really shifted most of my focus to buckets now, but there are always a few of these babies that catch my eye. Don't get caught in the bowl madness.. just more games. The past 4 years now I have tried to single out my favorite bowl game, and I have yet to lose it.. Hoping to make it 5 straight this year...

I was going to wait a little while longer to post this one up, but we are now less than a week away so I have to get it out. I have been teasing this game since the lines first came out, and I got all I can handle and a little more at around 10-10.5. Really with NFL/CBB if you got a bowl you really like you might as well tease a bit since you have so many options. I think these guys cover the regular spread, and win the game anyways though so whatever your style..

This year's Sugar Bowl really has my eye. I think this is a pretty underrated game overall, and these two teams are both taking a bit of heat about getting in... VT taking the bulk of that. Some of this might be deserved, but what is getting lost is that we have two teams that are playing some of their best ball. Of the two I think Virginia Tech is really the better squad, and will come out of this one on top so I will focus there first. The Hokies have one of the most improved, and better players in the country with QB Logan Thomas. It has really amazed me the lack of press this guy has got, and he is really slinging the ball. This kid is only a Sophomore, and will be headed to the NFL no doubt about it. He also benefits from being able to stand behind a very solid... veteran offensive line. These guys may have been beat up a bit against Clemson at times, but they should be able to hold their own against Michigan..maybe more than that. He also has a very experienced WR group which is also one of the most talented in the country to help him out as well. If Thomas gets off to a good start it will really spread the Michigan defense out, and Hokie RB David Wilson can take over from there. This offense is good. Tech's defense might not be one of Fosters more dominant groups, but they have had plenty of time to prepare for Denard Robinson which is KEY. This should help cover up some of the weaknesses they have over there, and while their dline got banged up a bit the guys that filled in have done well. Their ends are also the strength of that unit which is important against this Michigan offense. Their linebackers also at least have speed, and are not TERRIBLE. They are all also backed up by one of the better secondaries around.. you got a couple very good corners, and very solid safety who will ALL be able to help stop the run.

Now like I said I have plenty on this game... all these teasers really add up, but there are a few concerned that have made me back up a bit, and decide not to add.

Michigan was one of my sleepers before the season started, and like Thomas Denard Robinson has also improved his accuracy quite a bit. If he has time, and can set himself he will be able to make some of the tougher throws that will be needed in 3rd down situations. Not many teams roll over Tech's defense.. even Clemson has had trouble at times. Michigan will have to convert third downs. Robinson has shown down the stretch he is able to do that now. Will he be able to do it enough to beat Tech ? I don't think so... That secondary is too good for that. I am sure Robinson will find a way to complete a couple tough 3rd down situations, but what will win Michigan this game is what they are able to do on the ground. Like Tech Michigan's offensive line is also pretty solid... as a unit I wouldn't say they are as good as Tech's, but they might be more talented... and being the end of the year they are also all pretty experienced as a group. They have some playmakers just like Tech as well... Toussaint is a stud in the making, and we all know Denard. They will win their fair share up front against Tech's dline... which scares me, but as long as it doesn't snowball we should be OK. The Hokies were hit HARD on the defensive front, and they were already thin to enter the season to begin with. This is a pretty BIG RED flag in a matchup like this. To make matters worse the guys that are going to back up the dline have also been hit with injuries, and 2 of their top guys are out. Like I said though.. guys have been able to step up, and they have a lot of prep time. Don't let Michigan maul/run over you all day, and I do not see them being able to keep up.

Compare the groups here:

QB: VT
RB: VT
Oline: VT
WR: VT

Dline: Mich
LB: Push
Secondary: VT

Perception alone is the ONLY reason this team is getting points here. Oddmakers had this team laying over a TD against Clemson in the ACC championship even after Clemson embarrassed them in their own house...

TOP Bowl Play This year:


Virginia Tech +3

gl



^4 would be an excellent number in this one if your not big on teasers, and more into parlaying a solid ML. If the spread moved over 3 to 3.5/4 it would concern me a bit though even ignoring the 65% of the public or so that will be on the blue.

[cuse_man]

Sticking with the ACC in another one I will jump on Virginia against Auburn. Auburn is probably the far more talented squad, but here you have an experienced/highly motivated Virginia squad. You can't discount that in this type of game, and the line has moved up as expected. I don't think you can lay out as much on this one, but it really seems like a great play here. I haven't done anything with this one yet, but will either tease or buy a half or full point to 4. This team is a bit underrated, and has improved all year. They will be going all out for this one, and give Auburn all they can handle... should beat the young Tigers.

Virginia +4


gl

[cuse_man]

Alabama is my play for the BCS champ game. As I have stated before on here... they were the better team in the first matchup. Coaching really let them down, and I don't think it happens again. LSU is a better team since the first date though. I am teasing bama, and will continue.


I am also leaning heavy on Texas A&M.... This team is WAY better than their record would indicate, but you really have to wonder where their heads are at. Duckster has provided some nice insight in the poll for this one... will try to look into it further. Will be using A&M ML in some type of way for sure... can't get away from that. It is not that Northwestern is a bad team... in fact I like the squad a bit, and have used them this year. A&M just far superior team top to bottom... They put these guys at -10 so maybe they come correct. Remember this.. this team had loads of potential... They also ran into some very TOUGH matchups, and it led to a lot of disappointing losses. Taking those losses into consideration this team never really had a let down from them the following week, and really came to play. The aggies have also lost a brother... a guy it seems everyone loved. That can only be a positive for this game, and it could be a BIG positive. Food for thought...

Leaning on Rutgers over Iowa State.... not much research into this one yet, but its more of a fade/situational play. The Clemson/WVU game also has my eye, and I am hoping to dive into that one if I have time.

[nobaddameisaid]

Nice write ups cuse. May have to roll witcha on these. GL

[cuse_man]

Thanks bad... if ya like it.. jump it !

gl to us

[secondbase]

gl cuse

[Jahred]

very sharp

[kartell]

Great write-ups!
Since VA Tech is your top bowl play, is it a GOY?
Good luck!

[Rabbit's Foot]

Good luck cuse

[The Frozen Pond]

Love both VA schools

Good luck with your plays

[avalanche]

GL Cuse

[cuse_man]

Thanks guys.. Liked ND a bit today, but forgot about the early start. Maybe FSU can score before half here, but might just leave it since I missed most of the first half now.

Originally Posted by kartell

Great write-ups!
Since VA Tech is your top bowl play, is it a GOY?
Good luck!

Not GOY just my favorite bowl.. Its a higher rated play for me though, and adding all the teasers I have up I have almost as much as a normal GOY type play for me. There were a couple games I almost considered this year, but nothing I was in love with so I will just have to wait till next year for CFB. NFL I actually had a fews games I almost posted as GOYs, and I am pretty pissed for not doing so...Two of them were -3ish, and I had them on ML so I kinda feel bad about posting ML late on gameday... That and for some reason I have had to take shit from someone for posting a ML before... like it was a huge deal on a team that was -2, but whatever. I still hold hope to get GOY out there for NFL this year.. most likely would have to be a playoff game.. which I have done well with the last few seasons.

The red flags I mentioned for this game prevent me from GOYing it. They are real concerns.. normally on bigger plays I don't have those glaring weaknesses going against me. Even still... VT play calling has been pretty good, and with a very balanced attack they should control the ball keeping Michigan offense off the field. We will see how it plays out, but I really think VT is on another level from Michigan.

[FalconFreak]

gl in bowls cuse

[cuse_man]

Thanks FF

Looks like missing ND might have been better off.. Woulda pushed the spread, and maybe lose ML. The Irish blown so many covers this year its unreal... they should be a team to watch next year though.

[cuse_man]

*Think Marq -8 in 2H here is a decent try here to parlay with something if needed.

Also like Stanford a bit getting 4 from okie st... Haven't really done much with okiest games. I won a nice teaser with them, but ATS just 1-2.. small plays. Stanford a different story, and while I haven't played many of their games I have done well with the ones I did go with. In those games I chose to mainly fade the team though.. Teased UCLA which I got lucky with.. Teased USC good, and got little unlucky losing their ML imo.. then banged the Ducks, but I think I will change my roll here... Time to jump off the fade train, and take a generous 4 points from okie st.