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Old 09-09-2017, 01:43 PM
Natedagger Natedagger is offline
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Dagger's 2017 CFB Picks

Tail at your own risk! In an effort to give back something to this site, I am at least going to try to get some plays up every once-and-a-while. I'll almost always post my rationale, so if you have reasons why you do or don't like the plays, please share! We're all trying to get better - don't be shy.

Gotta love the early weeks of CFB. Lines seem so obvious, I bet too much, and then find out that Vegas is good at what they do. Most of my thinking this early comes from
Phil Steeles returnin starters.

This random Bleacher Report article on defenses that might fare well in 2017:

And I really like this one best of all: an SB nation article about the quality of the impact of returning starters. Why? because early on in the season, teams get ranked by their play last year, and that can sometimes drastically change with graduating players.

So here we go:

1* - Oregon -10.5. They have a high percentage of returning impact players and Nebraska does not.

1* - Fresno +42.5 versus Alabama. That's a lot of points for any team, Alabama lost 2 more starters to injury, and I just think they put it in coast mode at some point. Fresno apparently is supposed to be much improved this year, but I can't bring myself to bet more. At any rate, I think Fresno gets enough first downs to make the field long enough for Alabama to score, and I think the clock runs enough to sneak under the number.

1* each on Auburn +4.5 and Auburn +170. I'll take a team returning 15 starters including a QB versus a depleted Clemson squad. I know they are reloaded, but they still have a green QB. Clemson is nowhere near a top 3 team this year. Not even close.

1* each on UGA +3.5 and UGA +160. This is two-fold here. 1, I have no idea why anyone thinks Notre Dame will be good. I am clueless here. They weren't good last year, and they have a new QB against a top 25 defense returning 15 of 16 leading tacklers. UGA's new QB will manage the game and let Chubb do work.

3* - Auburn and Clemson under 56. I think Clemson's new QB will be handled with care. Lot's of small completions. Only 5 total returning starters on offense. Clemson's defense will still be stingy, especially with that crowd going nuts.

5* - Notre Dame and UGA under 57.5. I have this game at like 49 points, tops. I could see it going under 40. I could be way off on this one, but it'll be a conservative game plan for both sides.

7* - Penn State -21 vs Pitt. As an OSU fan, it pains me to say this, but I think PSU is the real deal. Pitt is WAAAAAY down this year, and the only thing keeping this number down is that the schools are in the same state. PSU's leadership with Barkley (he's downright scary & he's talking about his mistakes from the last game - pretty focused), and this McSorley dude is going to make for a long day. YSU outyarded Pitt 418-348, but Pitt pulled it out in OT. I see little to convince me that this game will be close, although I hate giving up so many points. BTW, Pitt near the bottom of returning impact players, where PSU has playoff aspirations. Pitt's QB threw tons of short completions last week, which to me is a red flag. Also a revenge game for PSU. The better play might be the over here, I am just not sure, but I think the spread is safer...

7* - Indiana -3.5 @ Virginia. I might have homer glasses on here, as I want Indiana to be good since it means that OSU had an excuse for last week's first half. That said, Indiana was a low-end bowl team and I look for them to make the leap here. I think UVA blows, and Indiana is returning 9 defenders, their QB, and I believe a stud WR that was injured all of last year. They basically tired themselves out against OSU but did look like the better team in the 1st half, FWIW. I have no idea what Virginia plans on doing, but they better get ready for speed, since IU is now running at a faster pace than Oregon did w/ Chip Kelly. The over here looks good too, I might take that.

I hope this helps and good luck to all! I don't have enough posts to post links but google will help you find them.
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Old 09-11-2017, 09:17 AM
Natedagger Natedagger is offline
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+7.7 units. Post-Mortem in Bold.
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Originally Posted by Natedagger View Post
1* - Oregon -10.5. They have a high percentage of returning impact players and Nebraska does not. Oregon won the turnover battle 4-2 and the yardage battle by 200, yet only won by 7. I mark this as a good bet that lost.

1* - Fresno +42.5 versus Alabama. That's a lot of points for any team, Alabama lost 2 more starters to injury, and I just think they put it in coast mode at some point. Fresno apparently is supposed to be much improved this year, but I can't bring myself to bet more. At any rate, I think Fresno gets enough first downs to make the field long enough for Alabama to score, and I think the clock runs enough to sneak under the number. Went how I thought. Good bet.

1* each on Auburn +4.5 and Auburn +170. I'll take a team returning 15 starters including a QB versus a depleted Clemson squad. I know they are reloaded, but they still have a green QB. Clemson is nowhere near a top 3 team this year. Not even close. Didn't work out. I am not sure if I underestimated Clemson's defense or overestimated Auburn's offense. Either way, fail.

1* each on UGA +3.5 and UGA +160. This is two-fold here. 1, I have no idea why anyone thinks Notre Dame will be good. I am clueless here. They weren't good last year, and they have a new QB against a top 25 defense returning 15 of 16 leading tacklers. UGA's new QB will manage the game and let Chubb do work. Worked as planned, and UGA won the yardage battle.

3* - Auburn and Clemson under 56. I think Clemson's new QB will be handled with care. Lot's of small completions. Only 5 total returning starters on offense. Clemson's defense will still be stingy, especially with that crowd going nuts. Nice. Defensive battle.

5* - Notre Dame and UGA under 57.5. I have this game at like 49 points, tops. I could see it going under 40. I could be way off on this one, but it'll be a conservative game plan for both sides. Worked really well. O/U was way off.

7* - Penn State -21 vs Pitt. As an OSU fan, it pains me to say this, but I think PSU is the real deal. Pitt is WAAAAAY down this year, and the only thing keeping this number down is that the schools are in the same state. PSU's leadership with Barkley (he's downright scary & he's talking about his mistakes from the last game - pretty focused), and this McSorley dude is going to make for a long day. YSU outyarded Pitt 418-348, but Pitt pulled it out in OT. I see little to convince me that this game will be close, although I hate giving up so many points. BTW, Pitt near the bottom of returning impact players, where PSU has playoff aspirations. Pitt's QB threw tons of short completions last week, which to me is a red flag. Also a revenge game for PSU. The better play might be the over here, I am just not sure, but I think the spread is safer... Well dammit. This was a pretty bad bet all around. More than anything, Pitt's play caller is crafty. I didn't watch the whole game but they were able to move the ball. Meanwhile, I am not sure why PSU didn't use Barkley more. He looked pretty good, and they were ahead, so why not feed him the pig?!? McSorry was weak yesterday, and Pitt won the yardage battle so this was pretty much a horrible bet.

7* - Indiana -3.5 @ Virginia. I might have homer glasses on here, as I want Indiana to be good since it means that OSU had an excuse for last week's first half. That said, Indiana was a low-end bowl team and I look for them to make the leap here. I think UVA blows, and Indiana is returning 9 defenders, their QB, and I believe a stud WR that was injured all of last year. They basically tired themselves out against OSU but did look like the better team in the 1st half, FWIW. I have no idea what Virginia plans on doing, but they better get ready for speed, since IU is now running at a faster pace than Oregon did w/ Chip Kelly. The over here looks good too, I might take that. Indiana's defense stopped the run and put the game in the hands of a mediocre QB. I will take the win and count this as a good bet, given that they were up 17-3 at the half, although the yardage battle ended equal.

I hope this helps and good luck to all! I don't have enough posts to post links but google will help you find them.
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Old 09-11-2017, 10:22 AM
duckster duckster is online now
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on that Oregon, they tried to pull an A&M, had 42-14 lead at halftime and quit, didnt score a point 2ndH.

nice work overall
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Old 09-11-2017, 11:23 AM
capainter capainter is online now
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Nice analysis and good job winning some units this weekend
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