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Old 10-02-2017, 11:33 AM
llord llord is offline
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Free $?? Someone help........

Northern Illinois at 23?.......Against Kent st?? I do not play one game bigger then another but N. Illinois seems like an easy easy win.........
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Old 10-04-2017, 06:20 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is online now
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For years N. Ill fits into computer models well but I never see it cover as Favorite. Not sure as a dog.
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Old 10-04-2017, 06:32 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is online now
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OK. I checked it out. I used to live in southern Wisc. and the N. Ill Alums who visited were the most unlikeable people. We saw them in Siberian husky club meetings.


Looking at the bet with new eyes, N.I. beat Neb. and did well vs BC. I like the bet. taking one unit.
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Old 10-04-2017, 06:36 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is online now
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Wait a minute. I thought they were the UD +23.5?? Sorry, no bet for me as fav.
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Old 10-04-2017, 06:40 PM
llord llord is offline
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Excellent analysis, thanks
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Old 10-04-2017, 07:07 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is online now
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Now that you are saying you are not taking N.I. Since you pointed them out, I have bet one unit on the other side +23.5

I hate to capp a team match and then not bet them. Their doing well vs those 2 teams is why they are so hugh a fav. It's a trap.

Last edited by AuburnKid; 10-04-2017 at 07:10 PM.
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Old 10-04-2017, 08:48 PM
llord llord is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AuburnKid View Post
Now that you are saying you are not taking N.I. Since you pointed them out, I have bet one unit on the other side +23.5

I hate to capp a team match and then not bet them. Their doing well vs those 2 teams is why they are so hugh a fav. It's a trap.
Thanks for your indepth capping, it all makes sense
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Old 10-04-2017, 11:00 PM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is online now
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Time was running out on the edit bar.

To say it more clearly, Northern Illinois did well almost beating the more highly respected ACC conference Boston College which is now winless at the ACC bottom. Therefore BC not a good team yet this year. Then they beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers, 3-2. 1st in Big Ten - West. BC was better in other years so computers give them undeserved good props. So now Kent State is only 1-4, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then. Kent State Golden Flashes 1-4 5th in MAC - East.

I started following Northern Illinois in 2006. A friend "won" a free years subscription picks from American Sports Analysts. Most of these tout types used computers to pick their plays. They picked N.I. most of the time and they won the game but lost ATS. Won is in quotes because ASA posted their plays with a star rating. So a game that came out heavily on the computer simulation was given up to 20*. They posted the first weekend big and got about 0-6 in NCAA and 1-8 games in NFL. Then multiply that losing bunch times their stars. Any fool would tell you to not bet your bankroll on last years numbers in NCAA week one. I did poorly in the first few weeks here so I stopped putting up plays except for 3 NFL picks and a few overs here and unders there.

So at the end of the year, ASA played about 1000 stars using a number like Wyoming 20* which I played the other side. It was their worst loss. I think they were just Martingaling it chasing their losing N. I. 2* loser with a 5* loser. They ended about 500*-570* BUT they did NOT include the 10% vig so drop another 100*.

It also happens to be true that I am a computer programmer* so I could see the plays were following predictable patterns. Note in the 2017 NFL opener ESPN ran a Madden sim on the game 1000 times and the Pats won big. Go back to the picking contest here for Pats vs KC, few members picked KC. KC computer oddity; last year at least one close game line was KC -1 -130 while no one bothered to notice the computer still had the ML at PK -130. Free point. Why it happens to KC is some random code in software. Call that "crap in the gap"; can be very hard to find.

For me this boils down to;

1. I hate those miserable Alums who thought they knew everything that was wrong with Wisconsin but came to Wisky and shit on the bathroom floor of a resort I liked to go to. Since they know it all and believe the BS story that their HUskies are great, they bet a lot of money on the team pumping up the line.

2. +23.5 is a nice big number. Lots could happen. If I had to pick quarters, NI has slow start 7-0 in first. End of half is 17-6. Start of third NI scores to maybe 33-9 then coach Rod Carey tells the guys to keep some in the bank for next week because the next week Buffalo Bulls are an unexpected 3-2; 1st in MAC - East. Paul Haynes sees an opening to put something on the board to avoid embarrassing defeat and scores for a backdoor cover with 4 minutes on the clock. N.I. gets the ball back but up by 21, he eats the clock with a series of run plays.

Game ends Kent covers by 1.5 Not a big cover so don't put a lot on my say-so.




















The AK* learns FORTRAN IV on a 8K computer by keying into a punch card machine and waits a week to get printout back.

Last edited by AuburnKid; 10-04-2017 at 11:07 PM. Reason: was fortran 4
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Old 10-09-2017, 04:02 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is online now
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Since you asked for the game outlook, that is where I looked, but I should have looked at the total line. At 46.5, it fits exactly into my guess of a 12-33 game but with a projected guess of 45, it is no better to play the under.


First Q as predicted. Second, third Q's lower for both sides, fourth 0-0. Kent earns its covering FG in second. Fourth Q N.I. goes to sleep. Kent by 2.5, not enough to continue this line of winning.

Instead,

The "free money" was the under 46. This game scores only half of the o/u line. Keep watching the MAC for good under bets. MAC is "cradle of coaches". It is very common for the first score to be FG.

In 2006, about week 5, I put a MAC bet on 3 first score is FG vs TD. All about +260 each (not sure anymore) but I do remember the parlay was +3500. This was my first year of real picking so I was not paying attention to my available balance. I put $200 on each FG vs TD, but then sadly only had $7 to play on the parlay. I now know to factor available money, in this case, by 5. With $607 available, 120 is close enough. So looking back had I checked the available balance, I would have only put $180 on each FG vs TD event, then $67 on the riskier longshot parlay.



Use a line like this.
Mid-American Conference Football Standings


Cradle of Coaches - Wikipedia
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Old 10-10-2017, 01:36 PM
llord llord is offline
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Sorry, I was swamped all weekend and I appreciate your analysis! Your analysis among a few other factors made it a no play for me on either side.
Thanks for the research and help, good job.
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Old 10-10-2017, 01:45 PM
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Starting at about week 5, the books will have more current stats than using last years NCAA and watch the covers numbers tighten until you will be happy to get a 2.5 cover.
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Old 10-11-2017, 07:09 PM
Titan24 Titan24 is offline
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I like N. Illinois -4.5 this weekend
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Old 10-14-2017, 05:11 AM
AuburnKid AuburnKid is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Titan24 View Post
I like N. Illinois -4.5 this weekend
Good for you if you got it @ -4.5 but now it is -6.5

Not worth chasing the line for me; pass.
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