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Old 01-03-2019, 07:05 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Title Game Betting Info

SuperBook ...

Line is down to Alabama -5

64% of bets ... 73% money on Bama
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:39 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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In the last 3 meetings between Alabama and Clemson

1st Half Points Scored ... 20.3

2nd Half Points Scored ... 39.7

(2 Championship games, 1 semifinal)
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Old 01-04-2019, 01:19 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Bama now -4.5 at The SuperBook

ML

Clemson +160
Alabama -190
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Old 01-05-2019, 02:49 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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BetOnline


60% of the bets ... 59% $$ on Bama -5
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Old 01-05-2019, 08:26 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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In their last 9 bowl games, Clemson is 8-1 ATS and as an underdog in that span, the Tigers are 7-1 ATS with 6 outright wins


Alabama is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when favored by less than 7 points.


Underdogs have covered each of the last 5 Championship Games, winning 2 outright


The last 5 national champs have all scored at least 10 points in the 4th quarter and outscored their opponent 90-33 in the 4th.


In the last three years, there have been 10 TD of 30 yards or longer and 6 of 50+ yards in the title game
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Old 01-06-2019, 04:51 PM
No Nothings No Nothings is offline
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With these stats you posted above , I see why the spread has come down to 5 . I like clemson and the points . Thanks for the above facts.
In their last 9 bowl games, is 8-1 ATS and as an underdog in that span, the Tigers are 7-1 ATS with 6 outright wins


Alabama is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when favored by less than 7 points.


Underdogs have covered each of the last 5 Championship Games, winning 2 outright
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Old 01-07-2019, 07:31 AM
steel69 steel69 is offline
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Love this type of info

Thanks NYK
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Old 01-07-2019, 09:00 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Sports Insights Contributing Books

Currently ...

59% of Spread bets on Alabama -5.5

58% of Total bets on Over 58
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  #9  
Old 01-07-2019, 09:38 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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The “over” is 21-8-2 (72.4%) when Alabama plays on neutral soil behind Saban. Posting 34.8 points per game ... the Crimson Tide has surpassed their projected team total in 22 of 31 contests.

Saban is just 20-8 SU and 12-15-1 ATS (44.4%) against teams ranked No. 6 or higher. Versus those rated from 7-25, he is 40-9 SU and 30-18-1 ATS (62.5 percent) all-time.

Alabama is 27-12 SU and 17-22 ATS (43.6%) under Saban kicking off a favorite with a line in-between a field goal and 10 points. It has yet to cover the spread in four College Football Playoff contests under these conditions, coming up 6.8 point shy of a -6.1 average line.
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Old 01-07-2019, 09:44 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Swinney is 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS leading Clemson in bowl games. He is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS against top-10 ranked teams. Swinney is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in ranked matchups when the lower seed, covering a 3.6 average line by a whopping 13.8 points per game.

Clemson is 14-6 SU and ATS (70%) on neutral soil all-time under Swinney, covering a -2.3 average line by 6.2 points per game. The Tigers have eclipsed their projected team total in 14 of the 20 games, averaging 32.5 points.

Swinney is 15-6 SU and 17-4 ATS (81%) versus teams ranked in the top 11 all-time, covering a 2.4 average line by 7.4 points per game. He has covered the spread in nine of the last 11 in this situation.

Swinney is 12-16 SU and 18-10 ATS (64.3) all-time as the betting underdog. When catching 5 points or more, his records improve to 6-8 SU and 12-2 ATS all-time.

The “under” is 36-13 (73.5%) when Swinney squares off against an opponent forcing more takeaways than the Tigers for the season. In 2018, Alabama generates 1.6 turnovers per game, as opposed to 1.4 for Clemson.
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Old 01-07-2019, 09:48 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Offshore market update ...


Alabama has been the more popular bet in this game, drawing a 57% backing. Bigger bettors, however, seem to be favoring the Tigers, as evidenced by the 51% of money they’ve generated on 43% of bets. That’s caused oddsmakers to drop this line from the opening number of -6.5 to -5.5, and even -5 at some books.

An almost identical story is taking place on the total. While only 41% of bettors are behind the under, they’ve accounted for 51% of actual money being wagered, and this number has fallen from 60.5 to 58.5.
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Old 01-07-2019, 09:49 AM
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Alabama is -3 on the first half line

Under Saban, Alabama is 21-6-1 (77.8%) against the first half spread when favored by a field goal or less, or listed as an underdog.
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Old 01-07-2019, 09:51 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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The under at Levi’s Stadium, which hasn’t fixed its horrid field conditions in its five years of existence ... is 36-23 (61%) in college and NFL games. Athleticism isn’t always on full display on that grass.

The under is 5-6 in college games there, but the two games this season have seen a combined 29 points (Michigan State-Oregon, Washington-Utah).
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Old 01-07-2019, 09:55 AM
kcburg kcburg is offline
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Appreciate the posts in here and in NFL..IMO better info then seeing touts picks.
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Old 01-07-2019, 11:11 AM
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LV SuperBook ...

Clemson 57.5 (+180)
Alabama -5.5 (-220)

57% tickets and 69% money wagered on Alabama

56% tickets on Under ... 64% money wagered on Over
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  #16  
Old 01-07-2019, 11:53 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Sports Insights Contributing Books

Alabama is a popular bet on the 1st Half line (-3) ... receiving 73% of tickets.

71% of 1H bets on Under ... opened 30, now 28
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  #17  
Old 01-07-2019, 12:33 PM
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Largest reported bets to this point ...

$220,000 on Alabama -5 at William Hill

$110,000 on Alabama -5 at SuperBook
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Old 01-07-2019, 01:53 PM
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Vegas Sportsbooks Hoping for Alabama Win, Clemson Cover


Most sportsbooks opened the line for this game during Alabama’s win over Oklahoma, but it seems like betting activity really started to ramp up over the weekend.

Ugly weather over the weekend and concerns over the turf at the stadium caused the over/under to dip to 57 at some shops.

“The total is what’s interesting to me because I was going through this game and they’re not playing in a reliably nice weather venue or indoor stadium,” Matt Lindeman, senior oddsmaker at Caesars Palace, said. “I see the field conditions being a major issue, so I’m curious to see how the projected bad weather potentially tears that field up so I think the total could be high.”

When we spoke to Lindeman over the weekend, the total at Caesars was 58.5, it has since dropped to 57.5.

While the over/under market seems pretty volatile, most books think the spread has settled to the correct range. Most shops around Las Vegas are sitting between Alabama -5/5.5 and nobody we spoke with thinks that we’ll see any spikes in either direction before kick.

“I’ve said all along I thought these two teams were closer than most people perceive them to be,” John Murray, sportsbook director at the Westgate SuperBook explained. “I think the line should be more like Alabama -4 and we have been staying low on this game all week. There will be good two-way action on this game for sure, especially with people taking Alabama minus the points and Clemson on the moneyline. An Alabama win by a field goal or less will likely be a great result for books all over the state.”

William Hill was one of the sportsbooks that posted a line for this game before the semifinals had concluded. They posted Alabama -5.5 after the Tide went up, 28-0, against the Sooners. It turns out that Bogdanovich and his team nailed it.

“I tried to beat everyone to the punch. We hung up -5.5, someone else in town posted -7 as did the offshore books but it settled back at -5.5 early in the week so I was pleased we called it right,” Bogdanovich noted. “It’s floating around that number still and I believe it will stay around there but who knows? Most of our action has been going both ways. I think the only areas we have an edge is if the score stays low and if Alabama wins but doesn’t cover.”

The activity from big bettors around Vegas has mirrored the market, according to Derek Wilkinson of the Westgate.

“We’ve got several five-figure bets on both sides, but most of our liability is on Clemson,” Wilkinson added. “Earlier this season, it didn’t look like anyone had a chance against Alabama, but they haven’t been as dominant in recent weeks. The book will need Alabama, but my money is on Clemson.”

As far as sharp action, Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management at CG Technology, said that respected bettors made their move early in the week.

“Our number is -5.5 like just about everywhere else around town and it opened at -6 and it went to -5.5 right away. The sharp guys bet Clemson early,” Simbal explained. “I’ve personally maintained all year that Clemson is a lot closer to Bama than people realize and we’re seeing that with this game.”

As for the moneyline, Simbal and most of the other books are seeing most of the money come in on the ‘dog.

“The money line bets are on Clemson as well at +190. That’s not a ton of value since normally a 5.5 to 6 money line is usually higher than around 2 to 1,” Simbal explained. “I only see that continuing to go down. If you’re taking Alabama, you might want to look at the moneyline, not something most bettors would normally do at that price.

“It’s been like this for the past few years. When you get a game with bettors who aren’t that used to betting sports but just want to bet the game itself, they tend to think ‘I just want to bet the game and I want to bet the underdog because I want to get 2 to 1 on my money.’ So you end up having a situation where you don’t move the point spread but you move the money line. Normally you’d move both simultaneously, but not here. So what happens here is bettors who like Alabama might just take the moneyline as well because there’s more value than normal at this spread just to win,” Simbal said.

As for the best outcome for his outfit, Simbal echoed what Murray said.

“We’d certainly prefer the scenario where Alabama wins and doesn’t cover the spread. We’d scoop up a large majority of the pot if that happens.”
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:04 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Caesars Palace books ...

Clemson vs. Alabama (-5.5, 57.5)

52% of bets ... 54% money bet on the spread is on the Crimson Tide
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:08 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Interesting Bet Labs system for tonight if liking / leaning Clemson ...


Contrarian in a ridiculously heavily bet game

Low bets (43%), higher dollars (48%)

Sharp RLM +6.5 to +5.5


Bowl Dogs <50% bets getting 5 points or more:

108-83 ATS (56.5%) ... 10.1% ROI since 2005
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  #21  
Old 01-07-2019, 02:14 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Largest reported bets to this point ...

$220,000 on Alabama -5 at William Hill

$110,000 on Alabama -5 at SuperBook
William Hill ...

Book has a $220K play on Alabama -5, and no six-figure wagers on Clemson

"We're a little high on Alabama money," but overall, futures etc ... book does good to any outcome
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  #22  
Old 01-07-2019, 02:18 PM
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A well respected house player at the SuperBook just placed a $60,000 wager on Clemson +5
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Old 01-07-2019, 03:38 PM
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Vegas Line update

Clemson Alabama Money lines all over the place. Can get Clemson +210 or Alabama -210

Can Lay -5 or take +6

If you're a sucker, can lay 250 on Alabama or only take back +175
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  #24  
Old 01-07-2019, 04:05 PM
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Weather should Not be a factor tonight with cloudy skies and temperatures expected to be around 60 degrees. The forecast is calling for light winds below 10 MPH.
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Old 01-07-2019, 04:20 PM
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Clemson-Bama match up pretty well in a lot of areas but punting is one spot Bama holds the edge ...

Bama - 8th punt ret yds (15.2) and 5th in punt ret. D (2.7 yds)

Clemson - 84th in punt ret yds (7.1) and 48th in punt ret D (7.1 yds)
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